英文标题：
《The role of money and the financial sector in energy-economy models used
for assessing climate policy》
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作者：
H. Pollitt and J.-F. Mercure
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the models\' assumptions lead to `crowding out\' of capital, which cause them to show negative impacts from climate policy in virtually all cases. We compare this approach with that of the E3ME model, which follows non-equilibrium economic theory and adopts a more empirical approach. While the non-equilibrium model also has limitations, its treatment of the financial system is more consistent with reality and it shows that green investment need not crowd out investment in other parts of the economy -- and may therefore offer an economic stimulus. The implication of this finding is that standard CGE models consistently over-estimate the costs of climate policy in terms of GDP and welfare, potentially by a substantial amount. These findings overly restrict the range of possible emission pathways accessible using climate policy from the viewpoint of the decision-maker, and may also lead to misleading information used for policy making. Improvements in both modelling approaches should be sought with some urgency -- both to provide a better assessment of potential climate policy and to improve understanding of the dynamics of the global financial system more generally.
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中文摘要：
本文概述了用于估算气候政策宏观经济成本和收益的评估方法中的一个关键差距。它表明，用于评估气候政策的绝大多数模型都使用了与观察到的现实不一致的金融系统假设。特别是，这些模型的假设导致资本“挤出”，这导致它们在几乎所有情况下都显示出气候政策的负面影响。我们将这种方法与E3ME模型进行了比较，E3ME模型遵循非均衡经济理论，采用了更具实证性的方法。虽然非均衡模型也有局限性，但它对金融系统的处理更符合现实，它表明绿色投资不必排挤经济其他部分的投资，因此可能会提供经济刺激。这一发现的含义是，标准CGE模型始终高估了气候政策在GDP和福利方面的成本，可能高估了相当大的一部分。从决策者的角度来看，这些发现过度限制了使用气候政策可获得的可能排放途径的范围，还可能导致用于决策的误导性信息。两种建模方法的改进都应该有一定的紧迫性——既要更好地评估潜在的气候政策，又要更全面地提高对全球金融体系动态的理解。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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