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英文标题:
《The invisible hand and the rational agent are behind bubbles and crashes》 --- 作者: Serge Galam --- 最新提交年份: 2016 --- 英文摘要: The substantial turmoil created by both 2000 dot-com crash and 2008 subprime crisis has fueled the belief that the two classical paradigms of economics, which are the invisible hand and the rational agent, are not appropriate to describe market dynamics and should be abandoned at the benefit of alternative new theoretical concepts. At odd with such a view, using a simple model of choice dynamics from sociophysics, the invisible hand and the rational agent paradigms are given a new legitimacy. Indeed, it is sufficient to introduce the holding of a few intermediate mini market aggregations by agents sharing their own private information, to recenter the invisible hand and the rational agent at the heart of market self regulation including the making of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. In so doing, an elasticity is discovered in the market efficiency mechanism due to the existence of agents anticipation. This elasticity is found to create spontaneous bubbles, which are rationally founded, and at the same time, it provokes crashes when the limit of elasticity is reached. Although the findings disclose a path to put an end to the bubble-crash phenomena, it is argued to be rationality not feasible. --- 中文摘要: 2000年的互联网崩溃和2008年的次贷危机造成了巨大的动荡,这促使人们相信,经济学的两个经典范式,即看不见的手和理性的代理人,不适合描述市场动态,应该抛弃这两个范式,转而采用其他新的理论概念。在这种观点下,利用社会物理学中选择动力学的简单模型,看不见的手和理性主体范式被赋予了新的合法性。事实上,引入由分享自己私人信息的代理机构持有几个中间小型市场集合,将“看不见的手”和“理性代理”重新定位为市场自律的核心,包括制造泡沫及其随后的崩溃,就足够了。在这种情况下,由于代理人预期的存在,市场效率机制具有弹性。这种弹性被发现会产生自发的气泡,这是合理的,同时,当达到弹性极限时,它会引发崩溃。尽管这些发现揭示了一条终结泡沫破灭现象的途径,但有人认为这是不可行的。 --- 分类信息: 一级分类:Physics 物理学 二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会 分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks). 社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。 -- 一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学 二级分类:General Finance 一般财务 分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance 通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用 -- --- PDF下载: --> |
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