英文标题：
《Do Mature Economies Grow Exponentially?》
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作者：
Steffen Lange, Peter P\\\"utz and Thomas Kopp
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
Most models that try to explain economic growth indicate exponential growth paths. In recent years, however, a lively discussion has emerged considering the validity of this notion. In the empirical literature dealing with drivers of economic growth, the majority of articles is based upon an implicit assumption of exponential growth. Few scholarly articles have addressed this issue so far. In order to shed light on this issue, we estimate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models based on Gross Domestic Product Per Capita data for 18 mature economies from 1960 to 2013. We compare the adequacy of linear and exponential growth models and conduct several robustness checks. Our fndings cast doubts on the widespread belief of exponential growth and suggest a deeper discussion on alternative economic grow theories.
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中文摘要：
大多数试图解释经济增长的模型都显示了指数增长路径。然而，近年来，考虑到这一概念的有效性，出现了一场热烈的讨论。在有关经济增长驱动因素的实证文献中，大多数文章都基于指数增长的隐含假设。到目前为止，很少有学术文章讨论这个问题。为了阐明这一问题，我们根据1960年至2013年18个成熟经济体的人均国内生产总值数据估计了自回归综合移动平均时间序列模型。我们比较了线性和指数增长模型的充分性，并进行了一些鲁棒性检查。我们的结论对指数增长的普遍信念提出了质疑，并建议对替代经济增长理论进行更深入的讨论。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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