英文标题：
《Mathematical analysis of historical income per capita distributions》
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作者：
Ron W Nielsen
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America are analysed. They follow closely the linearly-modulated hyperbolic distributions represented by the ratios of hyperbolic distributions obtained by fitting the GDP and population data. Results of this analysis demonstrate that income per capita was increasing monotonically. There was no stagnation and there were no transitions from stagnation to growth. The usually postulated dramatic escapes from the Malthusian trap never happened because there was no trap. Unified Growth Theory is fundamentally incorrect because its central postulates are contradicted repeatedly by data, which were used but never analysed during the formulation of this theory. The large body of readily-available data opens new avenues for the economic and demographic research. They show that certain fundamental postulates revolving around the concept of Malthusian stagnation need to be replaced by the evidence-based interpretations. Within the range of analysable data, which for the growth of population extends down to 10,000 BC, growth of human population and economic growth were hyperbolic. There was no Malthusian stagnation and there were no transitions to distinctly faster trajectories. Industrial Revolution had no impact on changing growth trajectories.
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中文摘要：
分析了描述世界经济增长和西欧、东欧、亚洲、前苏联、非洲和拉丁美洲增长的人均收入[人均国内生产总值（GDP/cap）]历史增长的数据。它们密切遵循线性调制的双曲线分布，由拟合GDP和人口数据得到的双曲线分布比率表示。分析结果表明，人均收入呈单调增长。没有停滞，也没有从停滞到增长的过渡。通常假设的戏剧性逃离马尔萨斯陷阱从未发生，因为没有陷阱。统一增长理论从根本上说是不正确的，因为它的核心假设被数据反复反驳，这些数据在该理论的形成过程中使用过，但从未分析过。大量现成的数据为经济和人口研究开辟了新的途径。它们表明，围绕马尔萨斯停滞概念的某些基本假设需要被基于证据的解释所取代。在可分析数据的范围内，人口增长一直延伸到公元前10000年，人口增长和经济增长是双曲线的。没有马尔萨斯式的停滞，也没有向明显更快的轨迹过渡。工业革命对不断变化的增长轨迹没有影响。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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