英文标题：
《International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Model》
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作者：
Stefano Peluso, Antonietta Mira, Pietro Muliere, Alessandro Lomi
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through the walk of the Reinforced Urn Process of Muliere et al. (2000). The model implies a local preferential attachment scheme and a power law right tail behaviour of bilateral trade flows. Different assumptions on the urns\' reinforcement parameters account for local clustering, path-shortening and sparsity. Likelihood-based estimation approaches are facilitated by feasible likelihood analytical derivation in various network settings. A simulated example and the empirical results on the international trade network are discussed.
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中文摘要：
我们提出了一个统一的建模框架，从理论上证明了国际贸易网络的主要经验规律。每个国家都有一个波利亚瓮，其成分控制着该国与其他国家进行贸易的倾向。通过Muliere等人（2000年）的强化瓮工艺，瓮的组成得到了更新。该模型暗示了双边贸易流的地方优惠依附机制和幂律右尾行为。对URN加固参数的不同假设说明了局部聚类、路径缩短和稀疏性。在各种网络环境下，可行的似然分析推导有助于基于似然的估计方法。文中还讨论了一个模拟例子和国际贸易网络的实证结果。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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