英文标题：
《Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on
a Biased Coin》
---
作者：
Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey
---
最新提交年份：
2017
---
英文摘要：
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given \\$25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61 young, quantitatively trained men and women to play this game. The results, in a nutshell, were that the majority of these 61 players did not place their bets very well, displaying a broad panoply of behaviorial and cognitive biases. About 30% of the subjects actually went bust, losing their full \\$25 stake. We also discuss optimal betting strategies, valuation of the opportunity to play the game and its similarities to investing in the stock market. The main implication of our study is that people need to be better educated and trained in how to approach decision making under uncertainty. If these quantitatively trained players, playing the simplest game we can think of involving uncertainty and favourable odds, did not play well, what hope is there for the rest of us when it comes to playing the biggest and most important game of all: investing our savings? In the words of Ed Thorp, who gave us helpful feedback on our research: \"This is a great experiment for many reasons. It ought to become part of the basic education of anyone interested in finance or gambling.\"
---
中文摘要：
如果你被邀请玩一个游戏，给你25美元，允许你在一枚硬币上下注30分钟，而你被告知有60%的时间是偏向正面的，你会怎么做？这正是我们所做的，召集了61名受过定量训练的年轻男女来玩这个游戏。简而言之，结果是，这61名玩家中的大多数下注不太好，表现出广泛的行为和认知偏见。大约30%的受试者实际上破产了，失去了全部25美元的股份。我们还讨论了最佳下注策略、对玩游戏机会的评估及其与投资股市的相似性。我们研究的主要含义是，人们需要接受更好的教育和培训，了解如何在不确定性条件下进行决策。如果这些受过定量训练的玩家玩着我们所能想到的涉及不确定性和有利概率的最简单游戏，但他们玩得不好，那么当我们玩着最大、最重要的游戏：投资我们的储蓄时，我们还有什么希望呢？用埃德·索普（EdThorp）的话来说，他对我们的研究提供了有益的反馈：“这是一个伟大的实验，有很多原因。它应该成为任何对金融或赌博感兴趣的人基础教育的一部分。”
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--

---
PDF下载：
-->