英文标题：
《Order statistics of horse racing and the randomly broken stick》
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作者：
Peter A. Bebbington and Julius Bonart
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
We find a remarkable agreement between the statistics of a randomly divided interval and the observed statistical patterns and distributions found in horse racing betting markets. We compare the distribution of implied winning odds, the average true winning probabilities, the implied odds conditional on a win, and the average implied odds of the winning horse with the corresponding quantities from the \"randomly broken stick problem\". We observe that the market is at least to some degree informationally efficient. From the mapping between exponential random variables and the statistics of the random division we conclude that horses\' true winning abilities are exponentially distributed.
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中文摘要：
我们发现随机划分区间的统计数据与赛马博彩市场中观察到的统计模式和分布之间存在显著的一致性。我们将隐含获胜几率、平均真实获胜概率、获胜条件下的隐含几率以及获胜马的平均隐含几率的分布与“随机断棒问题”中相应的数量进行了比较。我们观察到，市场至少在某种程度上具有信息效率。从指数随机变量和随机划分统计数据之间的映射，我们得出结论，马的真正获胜能力是指数分布的。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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