英文标题：
《Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which Is the Better Explanation?》
---
作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
---
最新提交年份：
2018
---
英文摘要：
This paper asks and answers the question of whether Kahneman\'s planning fallacy or Hirschman\'s Hiding Hand best explain performance in capital investment projects. I agree with my critics that the Hiding Hand exists, i.e., sometimes benefit overruns outweigh cost overruns in project planning and delivery. Specifically, I show this happens in one fifth of projects, based on the best and largest dataset that exists. But that was not the main question I set out to answer. My main question was whether the Hiding Hand is \"typical,\" as claimed by Hirschman. I show this is not the case, with 80 percent of projects not displaying Hiding Hand behavior. Finally, I agree it would be important to better understand the circumstances where the Hiding Hand actually works. However, if you want to understand how projects \"typically\" work, as Hirschman said he did, then the theories of the planning fallacy, optimism bias, and strategic misrepresentation - according to which cost overruns and benefit shortfalls are the norm - will serve you significantly better than the principle of the Hiding Hand. The latter will lead you astray, because it is a special case instead of a typical one.
---
中文摘要：
本文提出并回答了卡尼曼的计划谬论或赫希曼的隐藏之手能否最好地解释资本投资项目的绩效这一问题。我同意我的批评者的观点，即在项目规划和交付中，有时利益超支超过成本超支。具体来说，我展示了基于现有最佳和最大数据集的五分之一的项目会发生这种情况。但这并不是我要回答的主要问题。我的主要问题是，隐藏的手是否像赫希曼所说的那样“典型”。我发现情况并非如此，80%的项目没有显示隐藏手的行为。最后，我同意更好地了解隐藏之手实际工作的情况是很重要的。然而，如果你想像赫希曼所说的那样理解项目“通常”是如何运作的，那么计划谬误、乐观主义偏见和战略误传的理论——根据这些理论，成本超支和收益不足是常态——将比隐藏之手的原则更好地为你服务。后者会让你误入歧途，因为这是一个特殊的情况，而不是一个典型的情况。
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

---
PDF下载：
-->