书名：Bubbles, Booms, and Busts: The Rise and Fall of Financial Assets
作者：Donald Rapp
出版：Springer2009
ISBN：0387876294
格式：PDF；1.8MB；274页



http://ifile.it/ws8c7el/0387876294.rar

Contents
Introduction: The Holland Tulip Mania of 1636–1637 ........................... xv
Chapter 1
THE NATURE OF MANIAS, BUBBLES, AND CRASHES ..................................................... 1
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1
The Human Element ................................................................................................................ 4
The Rise of Manias and Bubbles ............................................................................................. 9
Fueling the Boom....................................................................................................................14
Wealth and Inflation............................................................................................................... 15
Asset Growth vs. Wealth: Cause and Effect?................................................................... 15
Inflation........................................................................................................................ 17
Speculations, Bootstraps and Swindles..................................................................................23
The Rationality of Investors?................................................................................................. 24
The Rationality of Bankers and Experts?...............................................................................27
Rationality of Bankers?................................................................................................. 27
Rationality of Experts? ...................................................................................................33
Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve System .................................................................39
Fiscal Policy and Taxes .......................................................................................................... 47
Tax Policies................................................................................................................... 47
Income Tax..............................................................................................................................47
Estate Tax................................................................................................................................ 51
The Alternative Minimum Tax..............................................................................................54
Income Tax Brackets and Budget Deficits......................................................................56
Capital Gains.................................................................................................................59
Social Security and Medicare........................................................................................ 62
Inequality................................................................................................................................65
Why Inequality Persists and Expands............................................................................65
Inequality of Wealth in the United States ..................................................................... 68
Debt......................................................................................................................................... 71
US Federal Debt............................................................................................................ 72
State and Municipal Debt ..............................................................................................77
Household and Mortgage Debt ..................................................................................... 78
The Dollar .....................................................................................................................83
Bankruptcies ..................................................................................................................85
World Debt ................................................................................................................... 87
Deposit Insurance .................................................................................................................. 88
Regulation, Deregulation and no Regulation........................................................................91
Pension Plans.......................................................................................................................... 94
Corporate Pensions ....................................................................................................... 94
Defined Benefit Plans ............................................................................................................. 94
Defined Contribution Plans................................................................................................... 96
The Public Sector .......................................................................................................... 99
The Valuation of Common Stocks....................................................................................... 101
Internal Feedback and Endogenous Risk............................................................................. 107
When the Bubble Pops..........................................................................................................109
Chapter 2
A SHORT HISTORY OF BOOMS, BUBBLES, AND BUSTS ............................................... 117
The New World ......................................................................................................................118
South Seas Bubble .........................................................................................................118
John Law’s Mississippi Company ................................................................................. 120
Florida Land Boom of the 1920s............................................................................................121
The Rise ........................................................................................................................121
The Fall........................................................................................................................ 122
Underlying Causes ....................................................................................................... 123
The Roaring 20s Stock Market ............................................................................................. 124
The Real Economic Boom of the 1920s ......................................................................... 124
The Stock Market of the 1920s...................................................................................127
The Crash of 1929 ........................................................................................................ 129
The Great Depression of the 1930s ........................................................................................131
The Savings and Loan Scandal of the 1980s.................................................................... 135
The Original Problem .................................................................................................. 135
Deregulation and no Regulation .................................................................................. 141
How Mr. Reagan Made a Bad Problem Worse ............................................................ 143
The False Spring of 1983...............................................................................................146
The ‘‘Go–Go’’ Period .................................................................................................... 148
Fraud and Misconduct................................................................................................. 150