Bubbles, Booms, and Busts: The Rise and Fall of Financial Assets

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书名：Bubbles, Booms, and Busts: The Rise and Fall of Financial Assets
作者：Donald Rapp
出版：Springer  2009
ISBN：0387876294
格式：PDF；1.8MB；274页



http://ifile.it/ws8c7el/0387876294.rar

Contents
Introduction: The Holland Tulip Mania of 1636–1637 ........................... xv
Chapter 1
THE NATURE OF MANIAS, BUBBLES, AND CRASHES ..................................................... 1
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1
The Human Element ................................................................................................................ 4
The Rise of Manias and Bubbles ............................................................................................. 9
Fueling the Boom....................................................................................................................14
Wealth and Inflation............................................................................................................... 15
Asset Growth vs. Wealth: Cause and Effect?................................................................... 15
Inflation........................................................................................................................ 17
Speculations, Bootstraps and Swindles..................................................................................23
The Rationality of Investors?................................................................................................. 24
The Rationality of Bankers and Experts?...............................................................................27
Rationality of Bankers?................................................................................................. 27
Rationality of Experts? ...................................................................................................33
Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve System .................................................................39
Fiscal Policy and Taxes .......................................................................................................... 47
Tax Policies................................................................................................................... 47
Income Tax..............................................................................................................................47
Estate Tax................................................................................................................................ 51
The Alternative Minimum Tax..............................................................................................54
Income Tax Brackets and Budget Deficits......................................................................56
Capital Gains.................................................................................................................59
Social Security and Medicare........................................................................................ 62
Inequality................................................................................................................................65
Why Inequality Persists and Expands............................................................................65
Inequality of Wealth in the United States ..................................................................... 68
Debt......................................................................................................................................... 71
US Federal Debt............................................................................................................ 72
State and Municipal Debt ..............................................................................................77
Household and Mortgage Debt ..................................................................................... 78
The Dollar .....................................................................................................................83
Bankruptcies ..................................................................................................................85
World Debt ................................................................................................................... 87
Deposit Insurance .................................................................................................................. 88
Regulation, Deregulation and no Regulation........................................................................91
Pension Plans.......................................................................................................................... 94
Corporate Pensions ....................................................................................................... 94
Defined Benefit Plans ............................................................................................................. 94
Defined Contribution Plans................................................................................................... 96
The Public Sector .......................................................................................................... 99
The Valuation of Common Stocks....................................................................................... 101
Internal Feedback and Endogenous Risk............................................................................. 107
When the Bubble Pops..........................................................................................................109
Chapter 2
A SHORT HISTORY OF BOOMS, BUBBLES, AND BUSTS ............................................... 117
The New World ......................................................................................................................118
South Seas Bubble .........................................................................................................118
John Law’s Mississippi Company ................................................................................. 120
Florida Land Boom of the 1920s............................................................................................121
The Rise ........................................................................................................................121
The Fall........................................................................................................................ 122
Underlying Causes ....................................................................................................... 123
The Roaring 20s Stock Market ............................................................................................. 124
The Real Economic Boom of the 1920s ......................................................................... 124
The Stock Market of the 1920s...................................................................................127
The Crash of 1929 ........................................................................................................ 129
The Great Depression of the 1930s ........................................................................................131
The Savings and Loan Scandal of the 1980s.................................................................... 135
The Original Problem .................................................................................................. 135
Deregulation and no Regulation .................................................................................. 141
How Mr. Reagan Made a Bad Problem Worse ............................................................ 143
The False Spring of 1983...............................................................................................146
The ‘‘Go–Go’’ Period .................................................................................................... 148
Fraud and Misconduct................................................................................................. 150

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关键词：financial inancial Financia nancial Bubbles The Assets fall rise booms

The Aftermath ............................................................................................................. 158
The Bull Market of 1982–1995............................................................................................... 161
The Crash of 1987 ......................................................................................................... 168
The dot.com Mania ............................................................................................................... 174
Boom and Euphoria..................................................................................................... 174
Greenspan and the Role of the Federal Reserve............................................................ 176
Bursting of the Bubble.................................................................................................. 182
Merrill-lynch is Bullish on America ............................................................................. 183
Other Bubbles and Swindles of the Late 1990s and 2000s .................................................. 185
Adelphia ...................................................................................................................... 186
Rogue Traders at Banks ............................................................................................... 187
Barings Bank.......................................................................................................................... 188
Allied Irish Banks .................................................................................................................. 188
Societe Generale ..................................................................................................................... 189
Enron ........................................................................................................................... 189
Long-Term Capital Management................................................................................. 195
Albania’s Ponzi Schemes............................................................................................. 204
Corporate and Accounting Scandals ............................................................................205
The Sub-prime Real Estate Boom 2001–2007 ................................................................ 219
Origin of the Boom ...................................................................................................... 219
Expansion of the Boom ................................................................................................ 221
Residences as ATMs .....................................................................................................224
The Punctured Bubble .................................................................................................228
Mortgage-Backed Securities .........................................................................................232
Government Response to the Punctured Bubble...........................................................236
International Mortgage Debt ....................................................................................... 237
The Hidden Time Bomb...............................................................................................239
Japan and East Asia.............................................................................................................. 240
Japan 1970–2007......................................................................................................... 240
Background ........................................................................................................................... 240
The Japanese Boom and Bubble........................................................................................... 241
Collapse of the Japanese Bubble .......................................................................................... 244
East Asia ......................................................................................................................245
The Oil Bubble ......................................................................................................................248
The Next Bubble....................................................................................................................254
Notes .....................................................................................................................................258
Abbreviations ...................................................................................... 267
XIII
Contents
Index .................................................................................................... 271

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