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Why you should love statistics?
视频链接
Think you're good at guessing stats? Guess again. Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited, says data visualization expert Alan Smith. In this delightful talk, Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we think we know.
Back in 2003, the UK government carried out a survey.
And it was a survey that measured levels of numeracy in the population.
And they were shocked to find out that for every 100 working age adults in the country, 47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills.
Now, Level 1 numeracy skills -- that's low-end GCSE score.
It's the ability to deal with fractions, percentages and decimals.
So this figure prompted a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall.
Policies were changed, investments were made, and then they ran the survey again in 2011.
So can you guess what happened to this number? It went up to 49.
And in fact, when I reported this figure in the FT, one of our readers joked and said, "This figure is only shocking to 51 percent of the population."
But I preferred, actually, the reaction of a schoolchild when I presented at a school this information, who raised their hand and said,
"How do we know that the person who made that number isn't one of the 49 percent either?"
So clearly, there's a numeracy issue, because these are important skills for life,
and a lot of the changes that we want to introduce in this century involve us becoming more comfortable with numbers.
早在2003年，英国政府进行了一项调查。
目的是了解国民的算术能力。
结果非常让人吃惊，在英国，每100个正值工作年纪的成人中，47个缺乏一级的算术能力。
一级算术能力是GSCE考试的低端分数。
它是运算分数、百分数和小数的能力。
这个数据使英国行政部门愈发的担忧。
他们改变了政策，进行了投资，然后到了2011年，他们再次进行了普查。
你们能猜到这一次的数字吗？这次，上升到了49。
事实上，当我在金融时报报道这一数据时，有个读者开玩笑地说，“这个数据只震惊了51%的人口”。
但我实际上更喜欢一个学生的反应，有一次我在学校展示这一信息时，这个孩子举手说道，
“我们怎么知道得出这一数据的人不是49%中的一个呢？”
很明显，算术能力成了一个问题，毕竟这是生活中的重要技能，
更何况我们还想为这个世纪带来许多的改变，这需要我们对数字越来越应用自如。
Now, it's not just an English problem.
OECD this year released some figures looking at numeracy in young people,
and leading the way, the USA -- nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy.
Now, England is there too, but there are seven OECD countries with figures above 20 percent.
That is a problem, because it doesn't have to be that way.
If you look at the far end of this graph, you can see the Netherlands and Korea are in single figures.
So there's definitely a numeracy problem that we want to address.
Now, as useful as studies like these are,
I think we risk herding people inadvertently into one of two categories; that there are two kinds of people:
those people that are comfortable with numbers, that can do numbers, and the people who can't.
And what I'm trying to talk about here today is to say that I believe that is a false dichotomy.
It's not an immutable pairing.
I think you don't have to have tremendously high levels of numeracy to be inspired by numbers,
and that should be the starting point to the journey ahead.
And one of the ways in which we can begin that journey, for me, is looking at statistics.
Now, I am the first to acknowledge that statistics has got somewhat of an image problem.
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