Why The Taper Matters (In One Simple Chart) Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/15/2013 21:31 -0400 Obviously, there are numerous reasons why (no matter what the economic situation is) the Fed will need to Taper ( deficits , technical fragilities , and sentiment ). Furthermore, it seems the world is more than happy to give the central bankers the benefit of the doubt that not only is Tapering not tightening but that Tapering is a 'positive' as it means all is rosy in the world (despite our earlier point of the 'difficulty' that any actual unwind poses ). However, there is one big reason ( highlighted further this morning in the TIC data ) why the Fed's Taper matters... they are (simply put) the only one buying... 5Y-30Y Treasury holdings... Source: BofAML Average: 4.833335 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 6 votes) Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Housing Recovery Lessons From Japan (In One Chart) Why The ECB's Monetization Is Doomed In One Simple Chart Why Politicians Hate Austerity - In One Simple Chart Pick The Fraud One Out: An Abridged Overview Of US Markets And Economics In Five Plus One Simple Charts Charting The Simple Reason Why Every 'Bailout' In Europe Will Be Faded
We Have A Hindenburg Omen Sighting Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2013 18:19 -0400 Ben Bernanke Remember when the last time a cluster of Hindenburg Omens nearly toppled the market in August 2010 and the only saving grace was Ben Bernanke's QE2 announcement at Jackson Hole which sent risk soaring? Today, nearly three years later, we got the first instance of the Omen again. Will it be a one-off fluke, or a cluster, which is needed to confirm this dreaded technical formation? Stay tuned in the coming days to find out... The last cluster was Aug 2010 (and was only saved by Bernanke), the previous cluster was Oct 2007 and we know what followed... (red bars are Hindenberg Omens) Full details of construction here . Average: 4.533335 Your rating: None Average: 4.5 ( 15 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 34996 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Frontrunning: Friday 13th Post Hindenburg Omen Edition Presenting The Sovereign Default Equivalent Of The "Hindenburg Omen" Hindenburg Omen Creator Has Exited The Market Second Hindenburg Omen Confirmation In As Many Days, Third H.O. Event In One Week Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1
What Do High Yield Bonds Know That No One Else Does? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2012 14:20 -0400 Barclays Bond CDS High Yield Wizened old market participants are often heard mumbling into their cups of green tea that "credit anticipates, and equity confirms" and so it is once again that the credit markets - fresh from the exuberance of endless technical flows, CLOs, and PIK-Toggles - has made a rather abrupt U-Turn in recent weeks. As Barclays points out, the ratio of High-Yield bond spreads to Investment-Grade bond spreads is its highest in three years as IG has been dragged lower by QEtc's impact on MBS and rotation up the spread spectrum. Typically, this kind of push would mean high-beta credit would outperform but far from it as cash bond markets have gapped out very recently. With call constraints (thanks to ZIRP) on high-yield bonds, the extreme price dislocation (given HY's inability to rally 'enough') will likely drag IG credit out - and that is a very crowded trade. Just one more unintended consequence from the Fed. HY bond spreads are pricing in considerably more pain than IG bond spreads - what do they know? CDS markets are not moving as much - having short-squeezed recently and just reracking with stocks. Bonds - real money accounts - are in trouble here...if this differential remains... but it seems that the crap-end of the credit quality spectrum remains active with new issuance. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 4 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 9255 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: CDS Market Begins Trading Imaginary Credit With LIBOR-Style Fixings 8 Ways Of Looking At A High Yield Bond Selloff What Does High Yield Credit Know That Stocks Don't? Why The High-Yield Market Won't See A Performance-Chasing Rally Dow Closes At Highest Since 2007 As High Yield Outperforms
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