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China bans Windows 8 from government computers
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912726421 2014-5-21 12:23
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"We were surprised to learn about the reference to Windows 8 in this notice," a company spokesperson said. "Microsoft has been working proactively... to ensure that our products and services meet all government procurement requirements." The Chinese embassy in the United States did not immediately provide comment. Considering the timing of the move, it doesn't seem to be a political response to the United States' decision to go after the Chinese military for hacking American companies. Related story: What Chinese hackers wanted The more likely reason, some suspect, is that China may be trying to avoid getting stuck with outdated Windows systems in the future. Windows operating systems are huge in China, and now that Microsoft has ended support for Windows XP , the Chinese government finds itself in a tough spot. Nearly three-quarters of Chinese PCs are running XP, according to NetMarketShare. That leaves tens of millions of computers there at risk of bugs and malware. See how FBI made global hacker bust This isn't the first time Microsoft faces challenges in China. The government's long-running ban on foreign gaming consoles has kept out Microsoft's Xbox ever since it launched in 2001. China lifted that ban late last year . Microsoft is also fighting an ongoing piracy battle in China. The company estimates 90% of Chinese PCs are running illegal copies of Windows software.
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China accuses U.S. of hypocrisy on hacking
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912726421 2014-5-21 10:04
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02:35 PM ET By Mick Krever, CNN Amanpour and Ambassador Cui also spoke about Russian President Putin's visit to China, the American pivot to Asia, and China's territorial disputes. You can see that portion of the interview here . A day after the United States announced indictments against five members of the Chinese military, China’s ambassador to the U.S. accused America of hypocrisy in an exclusive interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “It’s really amazing to see that some people still believe they have moral high ground and credibility to accuse others, if we consider the Snowden revelations and so on and so forth,” Cui Tiankai said. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder on Monday accused five Chinese nationals of engaging in commercial espionage, hacking into American businesses including U.S. Steel Corp., Westinghouse, Alcoa, Allegheny Technologies, the United Steel Workers Union, and SolarWorld. In some instances, Holder said, the hackers stole trade secrets that would have been "particularly beneficial to Chinese companies at the time that they were stolen.” The United States engages in widespread espionage around the world, but draws a distinction between spying for national security and spying for the advancement of domestic business. “The fact is China is a victim to such cyberattacks,” Ambassador Cui said. “I don't know how they can make a distinction between such activities. How do they explain the attacks on Chinese companies, universities, and even individuals? Is that for national defense? Or is that for other purposes?”
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What India can learn from China
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912726421 2014-5-18 12:00
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Editor's note: Ravi Agrawal is CNN's New Delhi Bureau chief and was formerly senior producer of the network's "Fareed Zakaria GPS." Follow him on Twitter: @RaviAgrawalCNN Hong Kong (CNN) -- I met an entrepreneur recently who was comparing doing business in Asia's two biggest countries. "When I'm in India," he said, "I spend the first 40 minutes of any meeting exchanging niceties. In the last five minutes, we get to business." What about China? "We do business for 40 minutes. Right at the end, we chit-chat for five." It's only an anecdote, but the results seem to bear it out. China gets things done; India invents ways not to. China dazzles the world by hosting an impeccable Olympics; India struggles to complete basic infrastructure for the Commonwealth Games. Perhaps that's why it's fascinating to watch the rise of India's Narendra Modi, the man many believe will be India's next Prime Minister. Modi's sales pitch is simple: he gets things done. For Indians, it's a seductive notion: Can India be like China? Ravi Agrawal There is no doubt that India has room to improve. Consider productivity: India's ranks 60th in the world on the World Economic Forum's ranking of countries by competitiveness (China is 29th). Or consider ease of doing business: the World Bank ranks India 134th in the world. If you want to start a business, the World Bank says India ranks 179th in the world -- in other words, go ahead and explore opportunities in 178 other countries before you settle on India. It's as good as putting a "closed" sign on the shop door. For businesses in India and beyond, Modi represents an end to red tape. India's financial markets are salivating at the prospect of his leadership -- stocks are up 20% since his candidacy was announced last September. If you speak to voters in his home state of Gujarat -- which has flourished with Chinese levels of growth under his leadership in the last decade -- Modi represents the joys of getting rich. Sounds familiar? That's because it evokes Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese premier who kick-started national reforms and an unprecedented period of growth. It's not just Deng. Modi has been compared to a number of world leaders. Some say he would be like Lee Kuan Yew , Singapore's visionary leader. (Note that implicit in these comparisons is the understanding that Modi could tend toward being authoritarian). Others say the best person to compare Modi to is U.S. President Ronald Reagan -- because both were outsiders resented by traditional elites. Still others insist the best analogy is former British PM Margaret Thatcher, because of their shared appetite for privatization and small government. Modi could be any -- or none -- of those leaders. The truth is we just don't know; we don't have enough information about his track record, and how it could translate across India. But the larger point is that this is not just about Modi, it's about India. Hinduja calls for Modi majority in India Inflation a concern for Indian voters Meet India's first time voters The Carnegie Endowment's Milan Vaishnav rightly points out that even the most reform-minded prime minister would face many hurdles. Among them, Vaishnav cites a J.P. Morgan study of 50 of the central government's stalled investment projects: 40 of them fell through because of state, and not central, red tape. Constitutionally, there's little a prime minister can do about that, no matter how reform-minded. Let me use another anecdote to explain the task ahead for the world's biggest democracy. Indians are infamous for being unpunctual. So, one wonders, is that genetic? Are Indians inherently prone to being late to meetings? The answer is no. Take an Indian who is unpunctual, and place him in New York -- he'll likely be on time for every meeting he schedules. Similarly, a New Yorker would likely become unpunctual in New Delhi. The reason is that punctuality is based on economic incentive -- if everyone is always on time, then it makes sense to make an effort to be on time. It follows then, punctuality is based on inertia. If everyone's doing it, it's in your best interest to follow suit. In a free democracy like India, progress is based on inertia, too. Everyone needs to push at the same time. Indians can dream to have cities like Singapore, Hong Kong or Beijing. But to do so they will need more than just one reform-minded leader. They will need change from the bottom up. For better or worse, such is the nature of India's secular, constitutional democracy. India can certainly learn from China. But to do that, it doesn't have to become China. In the next few weeks and months, that is the issue Indians will be debating
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Xi Jinping's push to add 'chili pepper' to China's anti-corruption drive
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912726421 2014-5-9 14:30
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Beijing (CNN) -- Xu Caihou, a retired PLA general and former vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), was taken from his sick bed at 301 Military Hospital in Beijing on Saturday by dozens of armed policemen, the South China Morning Post reported, quoting unidentified sources. Xu was detained the same day President Xi Jinping chaired a steering group tasked with reforming the military, the Post said. If confirmed, Xu would become the highest-ranking military officer to be detained on suspicion of corruption. Xu's critics claim that during his tenure, the buying and selling of military ranks was widespread in the defense establishment. "I was told by an ex-PLA man I met on the train travelling to Guangzhou that he quit the military because so many people were buying positions and he did not want to play that game," said David Zweig, professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. I was told by an ex-PLA man... that he quit the military because so many people were buying positions David Zweig, professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology "Telling me, a foreign professor, such dirt suggests that it is widespread and the anger that exists about this is also widespread." Bribery scandal Xu's detention may be connected with the corruption probe of Gu Junshan, the army's former deputy logistics chief and one of Xu's closest subordinates. Gu, who was in charge of the military's massive procurement and property portfolio, reportedly received bribes in cash and gifts. He has been under investigation since early 2012. Xu, 71, was promoted to the CMC in 1999 and became its vice-chairman in 2004. He retired in March last year. He has not been seen in public for several months until January 20, when the Chinese media showed him with President Xi greeting a group of retired military officials on the eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year. The bespectacled general appeared frail, observers noted. He is said to be terminally ill with bladder cancer, prompting speculation that Xu may have been spared a corruption probe and prosecution due to his condition. His sympathizers had been pushing for leniency, sources said, arguing that the terminal cancer was a fate equal to the death penalty. But the prospect of treating Xu leniently has caused discontent among reformists in the military who say letting Xu off the hook will be following double standards.
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18 次阅读|0 个评论
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But it's and additionally because food is such an
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sdfsdfsdlhc 2014-4-25 21:37
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Paul Craig Roberts: Pushing Toward The Final War
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insight 2014-3-30 14:25
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Paul Craig Roberts: Pushing Toward The Final War Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/29/2014 15:58 -0400 Afghanistan Australia China Eastern Europe France Germany Iran Iraq Japan New Zealand Poland Somalia Ukraine Vladimir Putin lang: en_U in Share 6 Authored by Paul Craig Roberts via his blog , Does Obama realize that he is leading the US and its puppet states to war with Russia and China, or is Obama being manipulated into this disaster by his neoconservative speech writers and government officials? World War 1 (and World War 2) was the result of the ambitions and mistakes of a very small number of people. Only one head of state was actually involved–the President of France. In The genesis Of The World War, Harry Elmer Barnes shows that World War 1 was the product of 4 or 5 people. Three stand out: Raymond Poincare`, President of France, Sergei Sazonov, Russian Foreign Minister, and Alexander Izvolski, Russian Ambassador to France. Poincare` wanted Alsace-Lorraine from Germany, and the Russians wanted Istanbul and the Bosphorus Strait, which connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. They realized that their ambitions required a general European war and worked to produce the desired war. A Franco-Russian Alliance was formed. This alliance became the vehicle for orchestrating the war. The British government, thanks to the incompetence, stupidity, or whatever of its Foreign Minister, Sir Edward Grey, was pulled into the Franco-Russian Alliance. The war was started by Russia’s mobilization. The German Kaiser, Wilhelm II, was blamed for the war despite the fact that he did everything possible to avoid it. Barnes’ book was published in 1926. His reward for confronting the corrupt court historians with the truth was to be accused of being paid by Germany to write his history . Eighty-six years later historian Christopher Clark in his book, The Sleepwalkers, comes to essentially the same conclusion as Barnes. In the history I was taught the war was blamed on Germany for challenging British naval supremacy by building too many battleships. The court historians who gave us this tale helped to set up World War 2. We are again on the road to World War. One hundred years ago the creation of a world war by a few had to be done under the cover of deception. Germany had to be caught off guard. The British had to be manipulated and, of course, people in all the countries involved had to be propagandized and brainwashed. Today the drive to war is blatantly obvious. The lies are obvious, and the entire West is participating, both media and governments. The American puppet, Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper, openly lied on Canadian TV that Russian President Putin had invaded Crimea, threatened Ukraine, and was restarting the Cold War. The host of the TV program sat and nodded his head in agreement with these bald-faced lies. http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Stephen+Harper+accuses+Vladimir+Putin+being+stuck+back+USSR/9663692/story.html The script that Washington handed to its Canadian puppet has been handed to all of Washington’s puppets, and everywhere in the West the message is the same. “Putin invaded and annexed Crimea, Putin is determined to rebuild the Soviet Empire, Putin must be stopped.” I hear from many Canadians who are outraged that their elected government represents Washington and not Canadians, but as bad as Harper is, Obama and Fox “News” are worse. On March 26 I managed to catch a bit of Fox “news.” Murdoch’s propaganda organ was reporting that Putin was restoring the Soviet era practice of exercise. Fox “news” made this report into a threatening and dangerous gesture toward the West. Fox produced an “expert,” whose name I caught as Eric Steckelbeck or something like that. The “expert” declared that Putin was creating “the Hitler youth,” with a view toward rebuilding the Soviet empire. The extraordinary transparent lie that Russia sent an army into Ukraine and annexed Crimea is now accepted as fact everywhere in the West, even among critics of US policy toward Russia. Obama, whose government overthrew the democratically elected government in Ukraine and appointed a stooge government that has threatened the Russian provinces of Ukraine, falsely accuses Putin of “invading and annexing” Crimea. Obama, or his handlers and programers, are relying on the total historical ignorance of Western peoples. The ignorance and gullibility of Western peoples allows the American neoconservatives to fashion “news” that controls their minds. Obama recently declared that Washington’s destruction of Iraq–up to one million killed, four million displaced, infrastructure in ruins, sectarian violence exploding, a country in total ruins–is nowhere near as bad as Russia’s acceptance of Crimean self-determination. US Secretary of State John Kerry actually ordered Putin to prevent the referendum and stop Crimeans from exercising self-determination. Obama’s speech on March 26 at the Palace of Fine Arts in Brussels is surreal. It is beyond hypocrisy. Obama says that Western ideals are challenged by self-determination in Crimea. Russia, Obama says, must be punished by the West for permitting Crimeans to exercise self-determination. The return of a Russian province on its own volition to its mother country where it existed for 200 years is presented by Obama as a dictatorial, anti-democratic act of tyranny. http://on.rt.com/sbzj4o Here was Obama, whose government has just overthrown the elected, democratic government of Ukraine and substituted stooges chosen by Washington in the place of the elected government, speaking of the hallowed ideal that “people in nations can make their own decisions about their future.” That is exactly what Crimea did, and that is exactly what the US coup in Kiev contravened. In the twisted mind of Obama, self-determination consists of governments imposed by Washington. Here was Obama, who has shredded the US Constitution, speaking of “individual rights and rule of law.” Where is this rule of law? It is certainly not in Kiev where an elected government was overthrown with force. It is certainly not in the United States where the executive branch has spent the entirety of the new 21st century establishing government above the law. Habeas corpus, due process, the right to open trials and determination of guilt by independent jurors prior to imprisonment and execution, the right to privacy have all been overturned by the Bush/Obama regimes. Torture is against US and international law; yet Washington set up torture prisons all over the globe. How is it possible that the representative of the war criminal US government can stand before an European audience and speak of “rule of law,” “individual rights,” “human dignity,” “self-determination,” “freedom,” without the audience breaking out in laughter? Washington is the government that invaded and destroyed Afghanistan and Iraq on the basis of lies. Washington is the government that financed and organized the overthrow of the Libyan and Honduran governments and that is currently attempting to do the same thing to Syria and Venezuela. Washington is the government that attacks with drones and bombs populations in the sovereign countries of Pakistan and Yemen. Washington is the government that has troops all over Africa. Washington is the government that has surrounded Russia, China, and Iran with military bases. It is this warmongering collection of Washington war criminals that now asserts that it is standing up for international ideals against Russia. No one applauded Obama’s nonsensical speech. But for Europe to accept such blatant lies from a liar without protest empowers the momentum toward war that Washington is pushing. Obama demands more NATO troops to be stationed in Eastern Europe to “contain Russia.” http://news.antiwar.com/2014/03/26/obama-wants-more-nato-troops-in-eastern-europe/ Obama said that a buildup of military forces on Russia’s borders would reassure Poland and the Baltic states that, as NATO members, they will be protected from Russian aggression. This nonsense is voiced by Obama despite the fact that no one expects Russia to invade Poland or the Baltic countries. Obama doesn’t say what effect the US/NATO military buildup and numerous war games on Russia’s border will have on Russia. Will the Russian government conclude that Russia is about to be attacked and strike first? The reckless carelessness of Obama is the way wars start. Declaring that “freedom isn’t free,” Obama is putting pressure on Western Europe to pony up more money for a military buildup to confront Russia. http://news.antiwar.com/2014/03/26/us-presses-eu-nations-to-hike-military-spending-to-confront-russia/ The position of the government in Washington and its puppet states (Eastern and Western Europe, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Georgia, Japan) and other allies purchased with bagfuls of money is that Washington’s violation of international law by torturing people, by invading sovereign countries on totally false pretenses, by routinely overthrowing democratically elected governments that do not toe the Washington line is nothing but the “indispensable and exceptional country” bringing “freedom and democracy to the world.” But Russia’s acceptance of the self-determination of Crimean people to return to their home country is “a violation of international law.” Just what international law has Washington and its puppets not violated? Obama, whose government in the past few years has bullied Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Lebanon, Iran, Honduras, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela and is now trying to bully Russia, actually declared that “bigger nations can not simply bully smaller ones.” What does Obama and his speech writers think Washington has been doing for the entirety of the 21st century? Who can possibly believe that Obama, whose government is responsible for the deaths of people every day in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya, and Syria, cares a whit about democracy in Ukraine. Obama overthrew the Ukrainian government in order to be able to stuff the country into NATO, throw Russia out of its Black Sea naval base, and put US missile bases in Ukraine on Russia’s border. Obama is angry that his plan didn’t pan out as intended, and he is taking his anger and frustration out on Russia. As the delusion takes hold in Washington that the US represents idealism standing firmly against Russian aggression, delusion enabled by the presstitute media, the UN General Assembly vote, and Washington’s string of puppet states, self-righteousness rises in Washington’s breast. With rising self-righteousness will come more demands for punishing Russia, more demonization of Russia and Putin, more lies echoed by the presstitutes and puppets. Ukrainian violence against Russian residents is likely to intensify with the anti-Russian propaganda. Putin could be forced to send in Russian troops to defend Russians. Why are people so blind that they do not see Obama driving the world to its final war? Just as Obama dresses up his aggression toward Russia as idealism resisting selfish territorial ambitions, the English, French, and Americans presented their World War 1 “victory” as the triumph of idealism over German and Austrian imperialism and territorial ambitions. But at the Versailles Conference the Bolsheviks (the Tsar’s government failed to gain the Straits and instead lost the country to Lenin) “revealed the existence of the notorious Secret Treaties embodying as sordid a program of territorial pilfering as can be found in the history of diplomacy. It appears that the chief actual motives of the Entente in the World War were the seizure of Constantinople and the Straits for Russia; not only the return of Alsace-Lorraine to France, but the securing of the west bank of the Rhine, which would have involved the seizure of territory historically far longer connected with Germany than Alsace-Lorraine had ever been with France; the rewarding of Italian entry into the War by extensive territory grabbed away from Austria and the Jugo-Slavs; and the sequestering of the German imperial possessions, the acquisition of the German merchant marine and the destruction of the German navy in the interest of increasing the strength of the British Empire” (Barnes, pp. 691-692). The American share of the loot was seized German and Austrian investments in the US. The secret British, Russian, and French aims of the war were hidden from the public, which was whipped up with fabricated propaganda to support a war whose outcomes were far different from the intentions of those who caused the war. People seem unable to learn from history. We are now witnessing the world again being led down the garden path by lies and propaganda, this time in behalf of American world hegemony. Average:
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个人分类: exceptional american|6 次阅读|0 个评论
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US convicts men who sold DuPont secrets to China firm
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912726421 2014-3-6 20:17
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Two US men have been convicted of stealing trade secrets and selling them to a Chinese state-owned company. A California court found businessman Walter Liew and scientist Robert Maegerle guilty of economic espionage. They stole US firm DuPont's secret method of making titanium dioxide, a whitener used in products including paint, paper and food, the court ruled. The men sold the trade secrets to China's Pangang Group, the court added. They will be sentenced in June. Liew and his wife started a company in the US in the 1990s and hired a team of ex-DuPont employees to steal DuPont's titanium dioxide trade secrets, the court said in its ruling . Liew, his company USA Performance Technology Inc and Maegerle sold DuPont's secret recipe to Pangang Group for more than $20m (￡12m), the court added. Liew was taken into custody immediately over fears he could abscond, the BBC's Alastair Leithead in Los Angeles reports. Two other scientists have been linked with the case - one committed suicide, the other admitted conspiracy to commit economic espionage, our correspondent adds. 'Aggressive efforts' Liew's lawyer, Stuart Gasner, said he was "very disappointed" in the verdict and would appeal. The defence has argued that no trade secrets were stolen from DuPont, and that the information Liew held was in the public domain. US Attorney Melinda Haaf said: "As today's verdict demonstrates, foreign governments threaten our economic and national security by engaging in aggressive and determined efforts to steal US intellectual property." "We will aggressively pursue anyone, anywhere who attempts to steal valuable information from the United States," she added. Liew's wife is scheduled to be tried separately. Prosecutors have also charged Pangang Group, but the charges stalled after a US judge ruled that prosecutors' attempts to notify Pangang of the charges were legally insufficient, Reuters news agency reported.
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Seoul: China plane 'flew near North Korea missile path'
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912726421 2014-3-6 20:15
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South Korea has criticised a North Korean missile test which it says took place as a Chinese passenger plane flew in the area. Tuesday's launch was one of several missile tests conducted by Pyongyang in recent days. "There were no accidents, but a very dangerous and serious situation could have occurred," a spokesman said. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman expressed concern and said Beijing would seek more information. North Korea often conducts short-range missile tests, and has fired several missiles into the sea, off its east coast, in the past week. The missile tests coincide with annual joint US-South Korea military drills, which Pyongyang condemns as provocative. 'Serious threat' The Chinese plane, which carried more than 200 passengers, was heading from Tokyo in Japan to Shenyang in China on Tuesday, South Korean officials said. The North Korean missile was launched at 16:17 local time (07:17 GMT). The plane passed through its trajectory seven minutes later, they added. "An aircraft passed by as the ballistic missile fell. On a safety level, this is a serious issue of concern," said South Korea's Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok.
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Reporters playing smart as China takes tough line with media
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912726421 2014-3-5 16:53
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Editor's note: This month's episode of On China with Kristie Lu Stout focuses on journalism and airs for the first time on Wednesday, February 19 at 6.30pm Hong Kong/Beijing time. For all viewing times and more information about the show please click here . Hong Kong (CNN) -- On the Reporters Without Borders map of global press freedom , China appears as one big black spot. China is ranked at 173 in the most recent World Press Freedom Index due in part to its track record for imprisoning journalists and censoring the Internet. And the situation shows no sign of improving. Last month, global viewers witnessed reporters for the BBC and CNN get shoved and manhandled outside the trial of activist Xu Zhiyong .
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24 次阅读|0 个评论
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Report: All suspects in China train station killing arrested or killed
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912726421 2014-3-3 23:09
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(CNN) -- Police have arrested three more suspects in Saturday's knife attack that killed dozens of people at a train station in the southwestern Chinese city of Kunming, China's state-run Xinhua news agency reported Monday, citing the Ministry of Public Security. Authorities now believe all eight alleged attackers have been arrested or killed, Xinhua reported. Four are under arrest, and four were fatally shot by police at the scene Saturday, according to the news agency. Attackers with long knives stormed the station , killing at least 28 people and wounding 113, according to Xinhua. Members of a separatist group from Xinjiang, in northwest China, are believed to have carried out the assault, authorities said. Xinhua's reports referred to them as terrorists.
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Eric Sprott On The "Golden Opportunity"
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insight 2014-2-28 12:16
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Eric Sprott On The "Golden Opportunity" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2014 21:15 -0500 Capital Markets Central Banks China Deutsche Bank Eric Sprott Hong Kong India LIBOR Moving Averages New York Stock Exchange Precious Metals RBC Capital Markets Reality Sprott Asset Management Turkey lang: en_U in Share 0 Submitted by Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management Don't Miss this Golden Opportunity Gold declined from $1,900 in September 2011 to $1,188 on December, 19, 2013. Silver declined from $48.50 to $18.50 over approximately the same time frame. Precious metal equities declined by approximately 70% over this period.1 This move down played out exactly as was scripted. However, let us review the causes of this decline. We start out with the most important words ever written by a regulator: BaFin, the German equivalent of the SEC, said that precious metals prices were manipulated worse than LIBOR .2 What are we to read into this, particularly the word “worse”? Obviously, worse than LIBOR could not mean that more money was fraudulently earned since the LIBOR markets are many orders of magnitude larger than the precious metals markets. Then it must mean that the egregiousness of the pricing dysfunction was materially larger in precious metals. The chronology goes as follows: November 27, 2013, BaFin announces an inquiry into precious metals manipulation on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).3 Mid-December 2013, BaFin is reported to have seized documents from Deutsche Bank (DB).4 January 17, 2014, BaFin announces that the manipulation is “worse” than LIBOR.1 On the same day, DB also announces its withdrawal from the LBMA gold and silver price fixings.5 Let’s imagine how this played out. Our guess is that BaFin, having reviewed DB’s trading practices, reported their findings to DB’s senior management. They are horrified at the findings (cough, cough) and decide a retreat from LBMA is required. This seems logical to us. Let’s now discuss why bank traders get involved in price manipulation. In the most simple of all analyses, they don’t do it for the bank, but they do it to fraudulently receive higher bonuses. Otherwise, why take such personal risk? If we assume that manipulation of precious metal prices was the reality, as a bonus seeking trader, when do you want the price to be the most favorable? The answer is simple: by year-end and mid-year periods, when bonuses are calculated. Figure 1: Gold Price Bottoms at Mid-Year and Year-End Source: Bloomberg, Sprott Asset Management LP If we look at what happened in 2013, the two lowest gold prices were on June 27th and December 19th (Figure 1). Perfect! And perfectly obvious… Now let’s deal with some reality in the real physical gold market in 2013. As we discussed in 2013, the supply/demand data suggests to us that physical demand was overwhelmingly greater than mine supply (Figure 2. See Markets at a Glance January 2014, October 2013, July 2013, May 2013 and February 2013 for more information on the shortage of physical gold). Figure 2: World Gold Supply and Demand 2013, in Tonnes6 It is obvious to us that precious metals markets were manipulated in 2013. It is also obvious that demand far exceeded annual mine supply. Now let’s analyze what should happen, going forward, with these revelations. If gold prices are back on their long-term trend, ex-manipulation, a linear progression of the gold chart from 2000 to 2014 would suggest a price of $2,100 now (62% higher than the current $1,300 level) and $2,400 by year-end (Figure 3). Figure 3: Gold Price is far from its Long-Term Linear Trend Source: Bloomberg and Sprott Estimates Figure 4 shows estimates of cash flow per share (CFPS) for different sized gold miners under gold prices at both $1,300 and a $2,000 per ounce. As you will note, the potential returns vary from 180% for the lumbering seniors to 420% for some of the smaller producers. Figure 4: Upside Scenarios For Different Types of Gold Miners Assumed Cash Flow multiple: 10. All Figures in US dollars. Estimates are for FY2014. Source: Sprott Estimates and RBC Capital Markets. For illustrative purposes only. Eric Sprott and/or Sprott Asset Management Funds beneficially (directly or indirectly) may own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding securities of the above issuer). Are these gains likely to materialize? So far in 2014, the senior miners are up 27%1, while the junior miners are up 42%7. Not a bad year. But, we are only seven weeks into the year. Gold and silver have broken their downtrends and have surpassed their 200 day moving averages. The golden cross (i.e. the fifty day rising through the 200 day) still awaits, but it is most likely to happen within weeks. When was the last time that an obvious reversal of an anomalous, yet explicable market dysfunction allowed you to imagine that you could expect multi-hundred per cent returns over a short time period? Again, don’t miss this Golden Opportunity! 1 NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. 2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html 3 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-27/bafin-reviews-gold-silver-pricing-as-part-of-libor-review.html 4 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b386aa16-6358-11e3-886f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2thaFxIiG 5 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304603704579326202725433242 6 GFMS data comes from the WGC’s “Gold Demand Trends” publications for 2013 Q1, Q2, Q3 Q4. Chinese mine supply comes from the China Gold Association for 2013. Russian mine supply comes from the Union of Gold Producers and is up to 2013 Q4. Chinese data is taken from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department and covers the period Jan.-Dec. 2013. Changes in Central Bank gold reserves are taken from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics, as published on the World Gold Council’s website for 2013 Q1, Q2, Q3 Q4 and include all international organizations as well as all central banks. Net imports for Thailand, Turkey and India come from the UN Comtrade database and include gold coins, scrap, powder, jewellery and other items made of gold. The data is for 2013. ETFs data comes from GFMS as well. 7 MV Junior Gold Miners Index. Average: 0
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个人分类: gold|21 次阅读|0 个评论
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John Kerry: "The US Is Beginning To Act Like A Poor Nation"
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insight 2014-2-28 12:15
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John Kerry: "The US Is Beginning To Act Like A Poor Nation" (待审核) 2014-2-28 11:36 | 个人分类: exceptional america | China John Kerry: "The US Is Beginning To Act Like A Poor Nation" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2014 10:47 -0500 Barack Obama China Deficit Spending Isolationism Japan Reuters lang: en_U in Share 5 The following remarks by John Kerry, borne out of his humiliation over the complete fiasco that was the US intervention in Syria last year and the even greater fiasco that was this year's attempt to get all feuding parties on the table in Geneva, only to see that outcome obliterated as well, appear to be borne out of his disgust at the defunding of the US defense budget, which for Kerry, more than his gross incompetence, is the reason why the US now finds itself in a "new isolationism" leading him to conclude that the US is " beginning to act like a poor nation. " One wonders what tipped him off: the fact that the US debt just hit a record high $17,419,220,117,766.69 or that the biggest monetizers of US deficit spending are the Fed, China and just as insolvent Japan? From Reuters : Speaking to reporters, Kerry inveighed against what he sees as a tendency within the United States to retreat from the world even as he defended the Obama administration's diplomatic efforts from Syria to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In comments tied to the budget that U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to present on Tuesday, Kerry suggested that tighter spending, in part at the behest of congressional Republicans, may limit U.S. clout around the world. "There's a new isolationism," Kerry said during a nearly one-hour discussion with a small group of reporters. "We are beginning to behave like a poor nation ," he added, saying some Americans do not perceive the connection between U.S. engagement abroad and the U.S. economy, their own jobs and wider U.S. interests. Perhaps some other Americans are tired of America acting as Globocop, and as the world's hypocritical superpower dispensing "justice" when it fits its national interests, and ignoring all other conflicts, specifically when Mid-East oil, or the growing Russian sphere of influence is not concerned? Kerry made the case as Obama prepares to release a budget that will adhere to spending levels agreed to in a two-year bipartisan budget deal struck late last year, entailing some spending cuts the administration would have preferred to avoid. The U.S. State Department budget will decline slightly in the president's budget submission, Kerry said, saying this was a direct result of the bipartisan budget deal that cut funding further than Obama wanted. "This is not a budget we want. It's not a budget that does what we need," he said, saying the budget deal entailed cuts demanded by the Republican-led House of Representatives. "It was the best the president could get. It's not what he wanted." But hold on: wasn't it Kerry's own party that has been urging the defunding of the US defense budget at the expense of overfunding welfare and benefits? The people are confused. Next, Kerry deflects his own personal failings as SecState, having had to be pulled from his yacht last summer, just as the Syrian conflict was reaching its climax: In speaking of what he called the "new isolationism," Kerry cited the limited support in the U.S. Congress to back Obama's plan to launch an air strike against Syria last year because of its suspected use of chemical weapons against civilians. Obama, in a decision criticized by some U.S. allies in the Gulf and elsewhere, asked Congress to vote on a strike. With limited congressional backing, he ultimately abandoned a strike and pursued a deal to get Syria to give up its chemical weapons. "Look at our budget. Look at our efforts to get the president's military force decision on Syria backed up on (Capitol Hill). Look at the House of Representatives with respect to the military and the budget," Kerry said. "All of those things diminish our ability to do things," he added. Those... and the people who are in charge. Hence: defensive mode - activate: Kerry took particular aim at critics of his efforts to get the Syrian government and the opposition that has sought to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for nearly a year to reach a peace agreement that would entail Assad's departure. A second round of peace talks in Geneva broke up on Saturday, with chief mediator Lakhdar Brahimi lamenting a failure to achieve much beyond agreement on an agenda for a third round. "These people who say that it's failed or that it's a waste of time ... Where is their sense of history?" Kerry said. "How many years did the Vietnam talks take? How many years did Dayton take in Bosnia-Herzegovina?" he added. "These things don't happen in one month. I mean it's just asinine, frankly, to be making an argument that after three weeks it's failed." What is most ironic about all of the above, is that hypocrisy aside, Kerry is absolutely correct: the US is starting to act like a poor nation... because it is, and Americans indeed "do not perceive the connection between U.S. engagement abroad and the U.S. economy, their own jobs and wider U.S. interests " because all US foreign policy reflects is the interest of a select group of uber-wealthy oligrachs whose sole interests the US congress represents... and nobody else's. As for everything else, we can't wait to see how Kerry handles the current Ukrainian crisis. The popcorn is prepared. Average: 4.9 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 50 votes)
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个人分类: exceptional american|6 次阅读|0 个评论
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热烈庆祝爱普生中国（Epson China）请国聿软件继续提供ITSM软件系统年度维护服务
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Klaire 2014-2-26 10:56
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自从爱普生中国（Epson China）2011年采购并开始使用国聿Ahoova ITSM/ITIL软件系统以来，连年获得国聿Ahoova团队的优良服务，今年春节后，爱普生中国（Epson China）决定请国聿软件团队继续提供ITSM软件系统年度维护服务；如图，这是爱普生中国（Epson China）与国聿软件签订的2014年的ITSM系统年度维护报价单盖章后的照片截图（Note: Confidential info is hidden.） 给广大客户们提供优质产品和良好快捷服务(Good product and agile services)，是国聿团队的一贯宗旨！
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个人分类: itsmbsm|50 次阅读|0 个评论
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How Central Banks Cause Income Inequality
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insight 2014-2-2 15:46
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How Central Banks Cause Income Inequality Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/01/2014 22:03 -0500 Apple Central Banks China European Central Bank Germany Great Depression Gross Domestic Product Janet Yellen LTRO Ludwig von Mises Mises Institute Monetization President Obama in Share 1 Submitted by Frank Hollenbeck via the Ludwig von Mises Institute , The gap between the rich and poor continues to grow. The wealthiest 1 percent held 8 percent of the economic pie in 1975 but now hold over 20 percent. This is a striking change from the 1950s and 1960s when their share of all incomes was slightly over 10 percent. A study by Emmanuel Saez found that between 2009 and 2012 the real incomes of the top 1 percent jumped 31.4 percent. The richest 10 percent now receive 50.5 percent of all incomes, the largest share since data was first recorded in 1917. The wealthiest are becoming disproportionally wealthier at an ever increasing rate. Most of the literature on income inequalities is written by professors from the sociology departments of universities. They have identified factors such as technology, the reduced role of labor unions, the decline in the real value of the minimum wage, and, everyone’s favorite scapegoat, the growing importance of China. Those factors may have played a role, but there are really two overriding factors that are the real cause of income differentials. One is desirable and justified while the other is the exact opposite. In a capitalist economy, prices and profit play a critical role in ensuring resources are allocated where they are most needed and used to produce goods and services that best meets society’s needs. When Apple took the risk of producing the iPad, many commentators expected it to flop. Its success brought profits while at the same time sent a signal to all other producers that society wanted more of this product. The profits were a reward for the risks taken. It is the profit motive that has given us a multitude of new products and an ever-increasing standard of living. Yet, profits and income inequalities go hand in hand. We cannot have one without the other, and if we try to eliminate one, we will eliminate, or significantly reduce, the other. Income inequalities are an integral outcome of the profit-and-loss characteristic of capitalism; they cannot be divorced. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher understood this inseparability well. She once said it is better to have large income inequalities and have everyone near the top of the ladder, than have little income differences and have everyone closer to the bottom of the ladder. Yet, the middle class has been sinking toward poverty: that is not climbing the ladder. Over the period between 1979 and 2007, incomes for the middle 60 percent increased less than 40 percent while inflation was 186 percent. According to the Saez study, the remaining 99 percent saw their real incomes increase a mere .4 percent between 2009 and 2012. However, this does not come close to recovering the loss of 11.6 percent suffered between 2007 and 2009, the largest two-year decline since the Great Depression. When adjusted for inflation, low-wage workers are actually making less now than they did 50 years ago. This brings us to the second undesirable and unjustified source of income inequalities, i.e., the creation of money out of thin air, or legal counterfeiting, by central banks. It should be no surprise the growing gap in income inequalities has coincided with the adoption of fiat currencies worldwide. Every dollar the central bank creates benefits the early recipients of the money—the government and the banking sector — at the expense of the late recipients of the money, the wage earners, and the poor. Since the creation of a fiat currency system in 1971, the dollar has lost 82 percent of its value while the banking sector has gone from 4 percent of GDP to well over 10 percent today. The central bank does not create anything real; neither resources nor goods and services. When it creates money it causes the price of transactions to increase. The original quantity theory of money clearly related money to the price of anything money can buy, including assets. When the central bank creates money, traders, hedge funds and banks — being first in line — benefit from the increased variability and upward trend in asset prices. Also, future contracts and other derivative products on exchange rates or interest rates were unnecessary prior to 1971, since hedging activity was mostly unnecessary. The central bank is responsible for this added risk, variability, and surge in asset prices unjustified by fundamentals. The banking sector has been able to significantly increase its profits or claims on goods and services. However, more claims held by one sector, which essentially does not create anything of real value, means less claims on real goods and services for everyone else. This is why counterfeiting is illegal. Hence, the central bank has been playing a central role as a “reverse Robin Hood” by increasing the economic pie going to the rich and by slowly sinking the middle class toward poverty. Janet Yellen recently said “I am hopeful that … inflation will move back toward our longer-run goal of 2 percent, demonstrating her commitment to an institutionalized policy of theft and wealth redistribution.” The European central bank is no better. Its LTRO strategy was to give longer term loans to banks on dodgy collateral to buy government bonds which they promptly turned around and deposited with the central bank for more cheap loans for more government bonds. This has nothing to do with liquidity and everything to do with boosting bank profits . Yet, every euro the central bank creates is a tax on everyone that uses the euro. It is a tax on cash balances. It is taking from the working man to give to the rich European bankers. This is clearly a back door monetization of the debt with the banking sector acting as a middle man and taking a nice juicy cut . The same logic applies to the redistribution created by paying interest on reserves to U.S. banks. Concerned with income inequalities, President Obama and democrats have suggested even higher taxes on the rich and boosting the minimum wage . They are wrongly focusing on the results instead of the causes of income inequalities. If they succeed, they will be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. If they are serious about reducing income inequalities, they should focus on its main cause, the central bank. In 1923, Germany returned to its pre-war currency and the gold standard with essentially no gold. It did it by pledging never to print again. We should do the same. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 4 votes)
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个人分类: inequality|21 次阅读|0 个评论
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China’s international trade and air pollution in the United States
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我叫小刚 2014-1-22 05:49
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http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/01/16/1312860111 中国是世界上最大的人为空气污染物排放体，并且中国的污染会通过大气转移到其他国家，包括美国。这是可以测量的。但是，一大部分中国的排放产生于制造国外消费品的需要。这篇文章是分析和贸易相关的中国空气污染排放物对全球大气环境的影响。
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个人分类: 杂谈|6 次阅读|0 个评论
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The Real China Threat: Credit Chaos
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insight 2014-1-9 16:18
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The Real China Threat: Credit Chaos Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2014 20:08 -0500 China default Equity Markets George Soros Gross Domestic Product Jim Chanos Michael Pettis Real estate Shadow Banking in Share 3 As Michael Pettis , Jim Chanos , Zero Hedge (numerous times) , and now George Soros have explained . Simply put - "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." The "eerie resemblances" - as Soros previously noted - to the US in 2008 have profound consequences for China and the world - nowhere is that more dangerously exposed (just as in the US) than in the Chinese shadow banking sector as explained below... Submitted by Minxin Pei via The National Interest , The spectacle of a game of financial chicken in the world’s second-largest economy is both entertaining and terrifying. Twice in 2013, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank, tried to demonstrate its resolve to rein in runaway credit growth. In June, it engineered a sudden credit squeeze that sent the interbank lending rates to more than 20 percent and caused a short-lived panic in the Chinese financial markets. Apparently, the financial turmoil was too much for the Chinese government, which quickly ordered the Chinese central bank to reverse course. As a result, the PBOC lost both face and credibility. However, as credit growth continued unabated and activities in the most risky segment of China’s financial sector – the so-called shadow banking system – displayed alarming recklessness, the PBOC was left with no choice but try one more time to send a strong message that it could not be counted on to provide unlimited liquidity to the banking system. It did so in December 2013 with a modified approach that provided liquidity only to the selected large banks but pressured smaller banks (which are the most active participants in the shadow banking system). Although interbank lending rates did not spike to nose-bleeding levels, as they did in June, they doubled quickly. Most Chinese banks held on to their cash and refused to lend to each other. Chinese equity markets fell nearly 10 percent, giving back nearly all the gains since mid-November, when the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) reform plan bolstered market sentiments. Unfortunately for the PBOC, the renewed turbulences in the Chinese banking sector were again viewed as too dangerous by the top leadership of the CCP even though it seemed that the PBOC initially received its support. Consequently, the PBOC had to beat another hasty retreat and inject enough liquidity to force down interbank lending rates. Thus, in the first two rounds of a stand-off between the PBOC and China’s shadow banking system, the latter is widely seen as the winner. The PBOC blinked first each time. For the moment, the conventional wisdom is that, as long as the PBOC maintains sufficient liquidity (translation: permitting credit growth at roughly the same pace as in previous years), China’s financial sector will remain more or less stable. This observation may be reassuring for the short-term, but overlooks the dangerous underlying dynamics in China’s banking system that prompted the PBOC to act in first place. Of these dynamics, two deserve special attention. The first one is the rapid rise in indebtedness (or financial leverage) in the Chinese economy since 2008 . In five years, the country’s total debt-to-GDP ratio (including both public and private debt) rose from 130 percent to 210 percent, an unprecedented increase for a major economy. Historically, such expansion of credit hasrarely failed to inflate a credit bubble and cause a financial crisis. In the Chinese case, what makes the credit explosion even more risky is the low creditworthiness of the major borrowers. Only a quarter of the debt is owed by those with relatively high creditworthiness (consumers and the central government). The remaining 75 percent has gone to state-owned enterprises, private real-estate developers, and local governments, all of which are known to have weak loan repayment capacity (most state-owned enterprises generate low cash profits, private real-estate developers are overleveraged, and local governments have a narrow tax base). Staggering under an unsustainable debt burden of roughly 160 percent of GDP (equivalent to $14 trillion), these borrowers are expected to default on a significant portion of their bank debt in the coming years. The second dynamic, closely related to the first one, is the growth of the shadow-banking sector. Two drivers shape activities in this sector, which operates outside the banking system. To minimize their exposure to risky borrowers, Chinese banks have curtailed their lending. But at the same time, these banks have embraced the shadow banking activities to increase their revenue. Specifically, Chinese banks peddle new “wealth management products” – short-term securities promising high interest rates – to their depositors. The issuers of such securities, which are not protected or insured by the government – are typically high-risk borrowers, such as local governments (and their financing vehicles) and real estate developers. In the meantime, these borrowers are facing rising pressures for loan repayments in an environment of overcapacity and unprofitable investments. Unable to generate cash to service their loans, they have to turn to the shadow-banking sector for credit and avoid default. The result is an explosive growth of the size of the shadow-banking sector (now conservatively estimated to account for 20-30 percent of GDP). Understandably, the PBOC does not look upon the shadow banking sector favorably. Since shadow-banking sector gets its short-term liquidity mainly through interbanking loans, the PBOC thought that it could put a painful squeeze on this sector through reducing liquidity. Apparently, the PBOC underestimated the effects of its measure. Largely because Chinese borrowers tend to cross-guarantee each other’s debt, squeezing even a relatively small number of borrowers could produce a cascade of default. The reaction in the credit market was thus almost instant and frightening. Borrowers facing imminent default are willing to borrow at any rate while banks with money are unwilling to loan it out no matter how attractive the terms are. Should this situation continue, China’s real economy would suffer a nasty shock. Chain default would produce a paralyzing effect on economic activities even though there is no run on the banks. Clearly, this is not a prospect the CCP’s top leadership relishes. So the task for the PBOC in the coming year will remain as difficult as ever. It will have to navigate between gently disciplining the banks and avoiding a financial panic. Its ability to do so is anything but assured. It has already lost the first two rounds of this game of financial chicken. We can only hope that it can do better in the next round. Average: 4.5 Your rating: None Average: 4.5 ( 4 votes)
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个人分类: 中国经济|34 次阅读|0 个评论
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China New Home Prices Rise in 69 Of 70 Cities
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insight 2013-11-21 16:31
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China New Home Prices Rise in 69 Of 70 Cities Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2013 04:16 -0500 Capital Markets China Housing Bubble Housing Market Housing Starts Real estate Shenzhen in Share 0 China's attempts to curb runaway inflation in its housing market - which in a country in which the relatively young capital markets lack the breadth and depth of their western equivalents remains the only venue in which to park any of the excess cash generated from the global central bank liquidity avalanche - continue to be met with failure after failure. Overnight, the China Statistics Bureau reported that in September new home price across the country's 70 tracked cities, rose in virtually all of them, or 69 compared to a year ago. On a monthly basis, or compared to August, new home prices rose in only 65 of China's cities, compared to 66 in the month prior. And while the CSB data differs from the Shanghai Uwin data reported yesterday, the government's data while less stunning still shows the extent of the Chinese housing bubble and the persistent inflation plaguing the country: Beijing new home prices rose 1% M/m; and 16% Y/y; Shanghai new home prices rose 1.4% M/m; and 17% Y/y in September. More from SocGen's Wei Yao: China’s home prices continued to rise in most major cities in September, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Out of the 70 cities monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics, 65 saw new home prices rise month on month, one fewer than in August but still close to record highs. On average, prices of new residential apartments increased 0.67% mom (8.4% annualised), slowing from 0.79% mom in the previous month; while prices of second-hand properties increased 0.42% mom in September, compared with 0.35% mom in August. Moreover, housing inflation in first-tier cities – referring to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen – remained much stronger than in smaller cities, with the average gain of new flat prices in those cities nearly twice the pace of others. The housing activity data released earlier indicated strengthening property construction. Growth of housing starts surged to +41.3% yoy in September from -20.1% yoy in August, partly thanks to a base effect. The quarterly growth rate of starts quickened to 14.9% yoy in Q3 from 8.8% yoy in Q2. However, sales volume growth decelerated to 21.2% yoy from 32.4% yoy and real estate investment also grew slower in Q3 at 18.9% yoy, compared with 20.4% yoy in Q2. In addition to much higher statistical bases, the downward trends in sales and investment – at least in yoy terms – point to weakening in housing start growth in the coming quarters. Hence, the under-supply situation in big cities is unlikely to change inthe near term. In terms of policy, we see no grand tightening in the offing, except that banks are extending fewer mortgages. Long-term solutions, such as property taxes, land reform and sustainable funding sources for affordable housing, are still slow to come. And to think how much ink was spilled over the summer when the PBOC announced that, in an attempt to be prudent and to cool the housing market, it would "taper" the market liquidity by CNY1 trillion ... nearly leading to the collapse of the banking system. Funny how just like at the Fed, that whole idea was quickly buried without anything as much as a peep. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 2 votes) !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 4125 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: China Takes The Property Bubble To A Whole New Level: An Explosion Of (Vacant) Inland Cities Is Coming Guest Post: It's Always The Best Time To Buy Richmond Fed's Lacker Joins Philadelphia's Plossner In Fed "Excess Liquidity" Dissent Panel Here We Go Again: Step Aside RMBS, Rent-Backed Securities Are Here, And With Them The Beginning Of The End Guest Post: Will John Paulson Be Wrong This Time?
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个人分类: 中国经济|8 次阅读|0 个评论
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ISN – Defense Spending: Trends in the US, Europe and China
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insight 2013-11-19 19:13
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ISN – Defense Spending: Trends in the US, Europe and China Published: February 16, 2012 Posted in: Featured, Geopolitics, Intelligence, Military, Risk, Security (No Ratings Yet) Loading ... ISN : “Regional shifts in economic power, accelerated by the global financial crisis, are negatively impacting upon investments in military power. While in most East Asian countries defense budgets continue to grow in parallel with the economy, governments in the US and Europe are reversing this trend. In Monday’s discussion entitled Power and Plenty , we tried to identify those metrics that best reflect a nation’s actual or potential military power. Today, we’d like to complement and elaborate on this theme by reminding ourselves that: 1) current defense spending, much like in the past, is often shaped by economic considerations rather than strategic calculations, and 2) today’s financial crisis is encouraging, if not outright forcing, global shifts in the deployment of military power. An immediate example of both these truths is the United States. Indeed, while many policymakers were gathering for the Munich Security Conference , Barack Obama and his Secretary of State for Defense Leon Panetta outlined plans to reduce American defense expenditures by $450 billion over the next ten years. These cuts, which are basically being driven by the U.S. government’s budgetary woes, will not only include a substantial reduction in the U.S.’s military footprint in Europe, it will also feature a shift in America’s strategic focus to the Far East and Pacific. We have, of course, seen this pattern before. Subsequent to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States did significantly reduce its defense expenditures. Although analysts at the time characterized these cuts as being driven by a ‘peace dividend’, it’s important to remember that they were also precipitated by an economic recession. According to Barno et al , what distinguishes the current round of defense cuts from those of the 1990s is that the risks involved in today’s cuts, in terms of coping with international threats, are higher than then – i.e., the United States has to contend with the feared rise of a militarized and hegemonic China (at least at the regional level), with Iran’s continued intransigence over its nuclear ambitions, and with the migration of transnational terrorism into sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere. While some believe that Washington’s shift in strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region at least reflects a partial and premeditated attempt to lower its security risks, others see budget deficits dictating U.S. strategy more than anything else. US defense spending and GDP, 1988-2010 (Source: IMF, SIPRI) A similar pattern to America’s behavior can also be observed in Europe. According to a recent study by the European Parliament , military spending within most European Union (EU) member-states decreased considerably in the aftermath of the financial crisis. (There are exceptions to this trend, such as France, which has tried to use military spending to stimulate its economy.) Indeed, according to the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik’s (SWP) Christian Mlling the crisis has not only aggravated the ‘usual’ underfinancing of European defense establishments, it has also affected the strategic calculations of many European states. In other words, “budget constraints are now changing the aims and means of defense policy abruptly.” European states are being forced to re-evaluate how they intend to preserve their sovereignty, military effectiveness and economic efficiency all at the same time. And if we are to believe the European Parliament study, the region’s period of austerity will continue for another twenty years, which means defense expenditures will remain inappropriately low for the foreseeable future. Euro area defense spending and GDP, 1991-2009 (Source: IMF, SIPRI) Finally, if we look to Asia we see a different trend. Yes, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 prompted a dramatic reduction in the defense budgets of Southeast Asian countries. Sheldon W Simon , for example, points out that “the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) spent one-third less on defense in 1998 than in 1997.” Yet in stark contrast to the United States and its NATO allies, defense expenditure in Southeast Asia gathered momentum after the 1997 crisis and soon returned to pre-crisis levels. China, it should be noted, was in an even more advantageous position. Since it was not truly affected by the economic troubles of 1997, it has been consistently increasing its defense budgets since 1989, in parallel with its economic growth and increasing geopolitical leverage. ASEAN defense spending and GDP, 1988-2010 (Source: IMF, SIPRI) China defense spending and GDP, 1988-2010 (Source: IMF, SIPRI) Accordingly, the two most recent economic crises demonstrate that all defense budgets remain malleable. In the United States and Europe, for example, neoliberal policies have tied the fate of defense spending to scarce government resources. Asia- Pacific states, on the other hand, have largely rejected the ‘austerity solution’ and quickly returned to increased defense spending. This, argues Klaus Olshausen , has resulted in a rising military “high tide” in East Asia and a “low tide” in Europe and the US. Both tidal movements are critical, however: the uncoordinated decrease in defense capabilities in Europe may have as destabilizing an effect on international security as a real or misperceived military build-up in Asia. (The United States’ strategic relocation to the Asia Pacific region, in turn, suggests that it has a clearer idea about which tide is the more dangerous.) Whether European governments make the best of their low tide by cooperating more intensely on defense still remains to be seen, but the signs are not good. What the above trends mean for the long-term is subject to interpretation, of course. The political science literature does teach us one important lesson, though – if you want true stability in an international system, then military hegemony is good. You can argue about the nature and rightness of the hegemony, but the beneficial blanketing or smothering effect it has on systemic violence is a historical fact. Absent this type of hegemony, which the U.S. and its allies are now abandoning, the international system will feature higher degrees of risk in the coming years. And that, one can argue, is the most worrying legacy of the slash and burn approach to budget-cutting that we are now seeing in Western defense economics today. Source: International Relations and Security Network (ISN) / Published under the original title: Defense Spending: Economy Trumps Strategy Photos Credits : The Pentagon By mindfrieze / FlickR Man-portable air defense systems ( MANPAD ) By marsmet511 / FlickR 0 0 0 22 Related Posts Swoop – Elections Defense Spending Priorities: Washington’s World: August 15th – 21st, 2011 Ten Years After 9/11 – Trends in the Intelligence Environment ISN: Deeply Rethinking Defense INSS: Trends in Military Buildup in the Middle East Christopher Bronk: A Scenario for a Cyberwar between US and China in 2020 !-- /rdf:RDF --
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个人分类: war|4 次阅读|0 个评论
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Here Are The 9 Nations Most At Risk From China's Third Plenum
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insight 2013-11-5 11:21
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Here Are The 9 Nations Most At Risk From China's Third Plenum Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2013 17:08 -0500 Barclays China Global Economy in Share 0 Market attention is on the Third Plenary Session meeting of the 18th Central Committee (Third Plenum), where a blueprint for major reforms over the next decade is to be announced during the four-day congress starting on November 9. However, history shows that economic growth tends to be lower after major third plenum meetings . This is because structural reforms, while good in the longer term, tend to slow growth in the near term. While this is 'bad' for the global economy overall, the following nine nations, who are dependent on China to consumer over one-half of all their total exports , are particularly at risk. Economic growth usually slows after major Third plenum meetings (via Barclays) And will weight extremely heavily on the following nations Countries Dependent on China to Consume Half or More of Their Total Exports (via @M_McDonough) Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 2 votes) !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisements - I’m Investing $117K in 1 Stock – This company is growing faster than Apple, Amazon and Google combined. Login or register to post comments 7192 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Don Coxe On Everything From The Markets Rolling Over, To Persistent Food Inflation, To The Coming US Sovereign Debt Crunch Timing The Exit As Competitve Devaluation Looms; Is The Euro 25% Overvalued? More Thoughts From Albert Edwards 2012 Year In Review - Free Markets, Rule of Law, And Other Urban Legends Introduction To The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III All Eyes On The Gold Rout, Most Oversold In 14 Years
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个人分类: 中国经济|10 次阅读|0 个评论
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US Blasts Germany's Economic Model; Germany Blasts Right Back... And May Use Sno
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insight 2013-11-3 17:27
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US Blasts Germany's Economic Model; Germany Blasts Right Back... And May Use Snowden As Leverage Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2013 15:19 -0400 Barack Obama China Eurozone Germany Global Economy Gross Domestic Product Hong Kong International Monetary Fund Ireland Italy Portugal Treasury Department Twitter Twitter Unemployment in Share 2 The chart below showing the portion of GDP generated through net exports by select group of trade surplus countries is well-known to most. Except, it seems, to the Treasury. Apparently to Jack Lew's henchmen it comes as a complete shock that Germany's exports account for 41.4% of GDP - 50% more than traditionally evil "mercantilist" China. It is also a complete shock to the US Treasury that the current layout of the Eurozone - the same Eurozone that the Fed has stepped in on numerous occasions to bailout, common currency and all - was simply to facilitate German exports to fellow European countries. Which is probably why, after years of saying nothing, in its semi-annual currency report released yesterday and "employing unusually sharp language, the U.S. openly criticized Germany's economic policies and blamed the euro-zone powerhouse for dragging down its neighbors and the rest of the global economy." You see it was all Germany's fault. From the Treasury's report : Germany has maintained a large current account surplus throughout the euro area financial crisis, and in 2012, Germany’s nominal current account surplus was larger than that of China. Germany’s anemic pace of domestic demand growth and dependence on exports have hampered rebalancing at a time when many other euro-area countries have been under severe pressure to curb demand and compress imports in order to promote adjustment. The net result has been a deflationary bias for the euro area, as well as for the world economy. Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain are all now running current account surpluses as import demand in those economies has declined. Thus the burden of adjustment is being disproportionately placed on peripheral European countries, exacerbating extremely high unemployment, especially among youth in these countries, while Europe’s overall adjustment is essentially premised on demand emanating from outside of Europe rather than addressing the shortfalls in demand that exist within Europe. The WSJ adds : With the latest report, the Treasury Department has now criticized the world's three largest economies after the U.S. for their economic policies. The focus on Germany represents a stark shift in the Obama administration's economic engagement with one of its most important allies. Since the early stages of the euro-zone debt crisis in 2010, U.S. officials often avoided public criticism of Germany given its central role in keeping the currency bloc intact . President Barack Obama and his top officials worked carefully behind the scenes to prod Germany without antagonizing it publicly. Why the US would scramble to antagonize a Germany which as recently as a week ago was shocked to find out the NSA was spying on its beloved Angela Merkel is a mystery but apparently now that the fiction that Europe is "fine" and nobody can criticize it has ended and is no longer necessary because Spain is, in its own words, recovering, it is fair game to throw Germany and all other nations that dare to export better and more competitive goods and services than the US. under the bus. Because, you see, unless every "ally" of the US has the same "growth" model of internal consumption funded by titanic amounts of debt, be it household, corporate of sovereign, and is in the same insolvent boat at the end of the day as the US, they deserve to be spat upon. Which also means that the reverse is also true and Germany can stop pretending that the US is some paragon of economic growth or stability. And unlike other painfully impotent US "allies" (cough francec ough) whose eagerness to engage the US would go as far as summoning an ambassador for a brisk walk along the Champs Elysees, but never farther, Germany is in no way afraid to speak up against the former global hegemon, whose "reserve" status is evaporating by the day. Here is Germany response again via the WSJ : "The trade surpluses reflect the strong competitiveness of the German economy and the international demand for quality products from Germany," the German Economics Ministry said in a statement Thursday, responding to a report from the U.S. Treasury published Wednesday that bluntly criticized Germany's economic policies and blamed the euro-zone powerhouse for dragging down its neighbors and the rest of the global economy. "The U.S. government should critically analyze its own economic situation," said Michael Meister, a senior lawmaker and close ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel, criticizing the high debt level in the U.S., which "doesn't just unsettle , but has negative effects on the global economy." " The German economy is competitive, with record-high employment—so it's really not understandable why we're being blamed for this success ," Mr. Meister added. It is quite understandable: Germany is refusing to adopt the principles of the Fairness Doctrine and alongside that, revert to the teachings of those great philosopher-thinkers Marx, Engels, Lenin and Stalin. The Economics Ministry said the country's domestic economy is the main pillar of its growth, noting that both investment in Germany and consumer demand are increasing. It also said the U.S. criticisms are at odds with the International Monetary Fund's stance: "Furthermore, the IMF also doesn't see economic policy distortions as the basis for Germany's trade surplus." ... The report also provoked strong reactions from European economists. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, denounced the accusation that Germany is pursuing a beggar-thy-neighbor policy as "nonsense," given the strong euro and a fall in Germany's trade surplus with the euro-zone over the past five years. "The German export growth story is mainly in emerging markets like China, the implicit criticism that Germany should export less and consume more—there I have my doubts because periphery economies don't have products Germans would consume ," Mr. Brzeski said. Naturally, this is all just high-level political bickering, however unlike the Syrian debacle where Obama was schooled by the former KGB agent, the US president is dangerously close to antagonizing whatever pillars of support in the "priced to perfection" western world he has left. Still, the last laugh will likely be Germany's. Following media reports that Germany is considering granting asylum to Edward Snowden , Germany's politician and member of the Green Party Christian Strobele moments ago sent out the following picture from his visit to Russia, alongside Snowden. Ich komme gerade von Gesprch mit #Snowden . Bringe seinen Brief an BR mit. Details erst morgen http://t.co/F9XQ9i4J08 pic.twitter.com/6xhR7IgdxU — Christian Strbele (@MdB_Stroebele) October 31, 2013 Because what better way to unite the rest of the world against the former Globocop that is the US, than to show that anyone who is terrified ot spending one extra day in the formerly great nation, can feel safer in Hong Kong... or Russia... or Germany... or increasingly more places that just want to tell America "enough." Finally, if and when Germany, Russia and China all sit down and finally agree to the new and improved trilateral alliance, that's when things will finally get exciting. Average: 4.71875 Your rating: None Average: 4.7 ( 32 votes) !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisements - This company is about to destroy Bank of America - Find out the 1 small company that is poised to end the banking model as we know it… Login or register to post comments 23083 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Guest Post: Analysis of the Global Insurrection Against Neo-Liberal Economic Domination and the Coming American Rebellion Snowden Withdraws Russia Asylum Request; Nine Countries Deny Application 2012 Year In Review - Free Markets, Rule of Law, And Other Urban Legends Gold Reaches $1,900 Again - Supported by Risk of U.S. Recession, German Euro Risk and Wikileaks China Gold Cables Euro Creator Mundell Blasts CNY Depegging, Says May Erode Stability In Global And Chinese Economies
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个人分类: 美国经济|13 次阅读|0 个评论
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