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分享 7月宏观经济数据分析
insight 2016-8-18 11:38
7月宏观经济数据分析
7月的固定资产投资数据依然低迷，只有3.9%。 固定资产投资 1-2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 2016 38008 47835 46749 55079 70689 53334 增速 10.2 11.2 10.1 7.4 7.3 3.9 从到位资金的数据来看，投资低迷显然并非受制于资金因素。 到位资金 1-2月 3月 4月5月 6月 7月 2016 59324 49926 48827 54444 69922 53726 增速 0.9 13.3 12.2 7.3 8.3 5.2 预算 1-2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 2016 2464 2776 2767 3306 4578 3201 增速 10.9 13.7 36.2 18.1 22.6 17.9 国内贷款 1-2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 2016 9249 6032 5194 5584 7128 5782 增幅1.8 39.3 4.8 22.9 8.0 3.1 自筹资金 1-2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 2016 36765 33513 32892 37094 47901 36650 增速 -3.1 3.1 5.3 -0.3 2.0 2.1 其他资金 1-2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 2016 105797376 7762 8223 10034 7919 增速 15.5 63.653.9 38.8 36.9 22.5 由于 新开工项目计划总投资大涨，1-7月 施工项目计划总投资由1-6月的7.5%上涨到8.7%， 7月当月的投资低迷可能受水灾的影响较大。后期相关数据值得继续关注。不过从总的趋势 来看，投资下降是难以避免的趋势。2015年全年 固定资产投资勉强增长10%（上一次 与此最接近的增长率是2000年的9.7%）， 固定资产投资增速下降的一个重要原因是企业 的固定资产周转率在下降，企业效益在下滑，根源在于需求不足。7月数据的亮点在于以 人民币计价的贸易 顺差大涨34%，前期人民币贬值的效果正在逐步得到体现。而七月中国 在中美南海博弈中取得明显胜利对于中国巩固同东南亚的经贸合作，顺利推进“一带一路” 战略，拓展中国外贸的新空间意义重大。东南亚国家GDP总量虽不大，但增长快，人口年龄 结构合理，潜力巨大。套用一句当初李光耀劝美国重返东南亚的话：这里是经济高速增长 所在， 繁荣所在，财富所在和权利所在。中国企业切不可忽视相关机遇。当前中国正施压韩国， 韩国对华出口约占GDP的 10%，是其对美出口的两倍，如果能够成功无疑将有利于中国逐步 确立在亚洲的主导地位。 不过对日本，笔者却认为没有必要施加过大的压力，美国出于自身需求 必然会打击日本的制造业。可能有不少读者 会对此产生疑问，要讲清楚 这个 问题首先来关注一 下日元汇率， 从上图中可以看出日元在2012年12月开始走出突破性行情其后不断贬值，2015年8月开始确认 见顶，其后不断升值。这个时间节点很难用经济因素解释，但如果明白美国战略的意图就不难看出 2012年12月开始的日元贬值是美国为联合日本打击中国制造业而给日本的好处，2015年8月 人民币开始贬值美国打击中国制造业的企图破产，日元随即开始升值（从日线上看， 2012年 12月16日，日本自民党在第46届众议院 选举中以绝对优势获胜，安倍将出任总理大臣，17日 日元汇率跳空开盘突破 2012年3月15日的前期高点， 2015年8月12日人民币贬值次日，日元的日 K线以长阴下杀，其后 不断贬值）， 说明美国在打击中国 制造业无望的情况下转身开始打击日本 的制造业，在即将到来的下一轮 危机中美国必然会对 日本出重手， 日本战略投机失败，将会成为 本轮世界大博弈 中最先倒下的 制造业大国。而美国打压 日本中国也 不无好处。
个人分类: 中国经济|6 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 《学术界》C刊征稿 审稿快 保证正刊
羊咩咩de春天 2015-10-22 16:38
中文名称：学术界 外文名称：Academics in China 语 言：中文 主办单位：安徽省社会科学界联合会 创刊时间：1986 出版周期：月刊 邮发代号：26-68 出版地：安徽省合肥市; ISSN：1002-1698 CN：34-1004/C 收稿方向：学术探索 学科前沿 学术批评 学人论语、 学界观察 学者专论 学问人生等栏目对哲学、政治学、法学、经济学、社会学、文学、史学 、综合性学术研究等（中英文都可以） 学术界-C刊
131 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 How China Is Hiding Its "Hard Landing"
insight 2015-7-18 10:38
How China Is Hiding Its "Hard Landing" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/17/2015 11:40 -0400 Albert Edwards Capital Markets China Equity Markets Fail Nominal GDP Transparency Volatility in Share As year after year of global stimulus passes without a robust and/or sustained rebound in global demand and trade, the collective focus on China’s economy intensifies. Economic output in the West is stuck in low gear (or "no" gear judging from Q1 in the US) and as a result, the world is beginning to wake up to just how dependent it was and is on the Chinese growth engine. Indeed, one look at iron ore is enough to tell you everything you need to know about Chinese demand and complicating matters is a global supply glut that's been exacerbated by accommodative monetary policies. That is, because the promised trickle-down wealth effect never materialized, aggregate demand didn’t benefit, but supply sure as hell did, as otherwise insolvent producers continued to drill, dig, and pump thanks to easy access to capital markets and as a result, the world is quickly slipping into deflation just as the Chinese global growth engine stalls out and the global supply glut builds. Against this backdrop it’s no wonder Beijing’s economic data is now under intense scrutiny - the world is looking for any sign that China is re-accelerating. Unfortunately, scrutinizing Chinese economic data for signs of hope is a perilous exercise, as a keen observer is just as likely to uncover evidence of manipulation as evidence of the proverbial light at the end of the post-crisis demand dearth tunnel. And that - the discovery of still more evidence of manipulation - is exactly what has happened. The latest 'problem' with China’s economic output data revolves around the calculation of the GDP deflator. Here’s the issue: effectively, the assertion is that China’s deflator simply tracks producer prices, and thus when import prices slide, the deflator understates domestic inflation and therefore overstates real GDP. In the simplest possible terms: when commodity prices are falling, China (and other EMs) may be routinely overstating GDP growth. FT noted this discrepancy last quarter and indeed, China’s statistics bureau actually went out of its way to refute the suggestion that its deflator math was deficient. "In general China’s GDP deflator hasn’t been underestimated, nor has GDP growth been overstated. Both objectively reflect the real situation," the NBS said in a statement. Yes, "in general", China’s economic data reflects "the real situation," but that’s not very comforting when the future of global trade effectively rests on whether or not Beijing’s transition from an smokestack economy to a consumption and services-led model turns out to be a complete "made in China" disaster. That’s why the deflator issue matters so much. If the country is effectively destined to overstate GDP growth when import prices are falling and understate growth when import prices are rising, then the market will be misled about the health of the world’s second-most important economy just when it needs the truth (i.e. when the world is struggling with lackluster demand and a deflationary supply glut) and perhaps just as dangerous, the numbers won’t reflect the degree to which China’s economy is overheating in boom times. Here’s further color on this issue from SocGen’s Albert Edwards: The slew of economic data out of China this week had economists chuckling into their GDP spreadsheets. No-one I meet really believes the economy is growing anywhere near the 7% the Chinese Statistics Bureau insists is the correct number. But that doesn’t really matter. What matters is that the Chinese policy makers are throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at a spluttering economy and a faltering stock market (the latter having been stoked up to help the former). So far investors have failed to appreciate the futility of their efforts as centrally planned economies and markets will surely fail sooner rather than later. When I read a quote in the FT from one economist that “The government could not have hoped for a more perfect set of data”, I did actually laugh out loud. But National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesman Sheng Laiyun, in a robust statement on Wednesday, said that "China does not underestimate its GDP deflator and we don't overestimate our GDP". This is in response to some interesting articles that suggest that China’s GDP deflator has been underestimated for various technical reasons, and by underestimating GDP inflation the Chinese NBS is ‘inadvertently’ overstating real GDP growth (H/T to Zero Hedge). Certainly, the sharp Q1 dive in GDP inflation into outright deflation was significant as far as we are concerned for it helped explain the authorities’ shift to a much more aggressive easing mode. In Q2, GDP inflation popped back up to rise by 0.1% yoy instead of the 1.1% decline in Q1 (see chart below). Although higher, that is still not a ‘good’ outturn. And more from Bloomberg : One reason being touted to explain the gap is that China miscalculates the so-called GDP deflator, a broad measure of prices in the economy. Capital Economics Ltd. argues that China's GDP deflator is underestimated in periods when import prices are falling less than producer prices, hence the boost to real GDP. "It's an esoteric point, but one with big implications: if the deflator is understated and nominal GDP growth is not, real GDP growth will be reported as higher than it really is, " Mark Williams, Chief Asia economist at Capital Economics in London, who formerly advised the U.K. Treasury on China, said in a note. In other words, China isn't netting out the changes in import prices when measuring overall price changes in the economy. Skepticism over Chinese economic data isn't new and economists frequently question whether quarterly GDP accurately captures what's happening on the ground. For their part, officials from China's National Bureau of Statistics defend their numbers and differ with the analysis by Capital Economics. Still, Capital Economics is standing by its analysis. The firm agrees that China's economy may have stabilized or even accelerated after a sluggish period, only at a much slower pace. It reckons that in the second quarter deflators for primary sectors like agriculture and services rose while the deflator for secondary industry tracked producer price inflation. And unlike the first quarter, import prices didn't register big moves. "We still believe there’s a problem," Williams said in the note. "Accordingly, as in Q1, we think that real GDP is being overestimated by one-to-two percentage points." And finally, some short commentary from Citi: The growth rate is again over-stated, in our view The GDP deflator rebounded from -1.1%yoy in 1Q to 0.1%yoy in 2Q, while headline inflation was largely stable, but its gap with our estimates dropped from 1.4ppts to 0.4ppt. The growth divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors, however, has been the key surprise to our growth forecast. Power production growth was barely positive at 0.5%yoy in 2Q, and industrial profit growth was down by 0.8%yoy in Jan-May. By printing out another 7% growth, it again shows that the Chinese authorities can tolerate little volatility, not only on GDP growth, but also on FX, rate, property and equity markets, which could come at a cost of enlarged volatility in the future. Until this issue is addressed, China's GDP data will be subjected to what we've dubbed the "deficient deflator" theory each and every quarter and as noted on Thursday, because the deflator math issue points to a specific deficiency in statistical analysis (as opposed to relying on sweeping accusations about a generalized and endemic lack of transparency) it seems to merit a response from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. And by that we mean a real response. Saying that the data "generally" reflects a "real situation" hardly suffices. Average: 5 Your rating:None Average:5 (6votes)
个人分类: 中国经济|0 个评论
分享 China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium
insight 2015-7-18 10:18
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/china-dumps-record-143-billion-us-treasurys-three-months-belgium China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/17/2015 18:19 -0400 Belgium China Crude Renminbi in Share 12 When the latest Treasury International Capital data was released yesterday, many were quick to conclude that not only had China's selling of US Treasury ceased, but that with the addition of $7 billion in US government paper, China's latest total holdings of $1270.3 billion were the highest since May of 2014. And if one was merely looking at the "China" line item in the major foreign holders table, that would be correct. However, as we have shown before , when looking at China's Treasury holdings, one also has to add the "Belgian" Treasuries, which is where China had been anonymously engaging in a record buying spree via the local Euroclear, starting in late 2013, which however concluded with a bang in early 2015. This is what we said last month: "Belgium" is, or rather, was a front for China: either SAFE, CIC, or the PBOC itself. That Belgium's holdings, after soaring as high as $381 billion a year ago, have since tumbled as China has dumped the bulk of its Euroclear custody holdings, and that once this number is back to its historical level of around $170-$180 billion, "Belgium" will again be just Belgium. China's foreign reserves plunged concurrently and this was offset by a the biggest quarterly drop in Chinese pro-forma treasury holdings, which dropped by a record $72 billion in the month of March, and a record $113 billion for the quarter. It wasn't precisely clear just why China, which had historically used UK-based offshore banks to transact in US paper in addition to the mainland, would pick Belgium (and Euroclear) or why it chose to hide its transactions in such a crude way, however the recent acceleration in capital outflow from China manifesting in a plunge in Chinese forex reserves, coupled with a record monthly liquidation in total Chinese holdings, exposed just where China was trading. So with the benefit of the TIC data, we know that China's Treasury liquidation has not only not stopped, but has continued. Enter, once again, Belgium, only this time it is not a "mystery" buyer behind the small central European country's holdings, but a seller. As the chart below shows, after a record $92.5 billion drop in March, "Belgium" sold another $24 billion in April, and another $26 billion last month, bringing the total liquidation to a whopping $142.5 billion for the months of March, April and May. This means that after adding mainland China's token increase of $7 billion in May after a $40 billion increase the two months prior, net of Belgium's liquidation, China has sold a record $96 billion in Treasurys in the last three months. Just to confirm that one should add the dramatic changes in "Belgium" holdings to mainland China Treasury, here is a chart overlaying China's Forex reserves , which as we learned today had dramatically increased by 600 tons of gold, but more importantly forex reserves declined to $3.693 trillion, a drop of $17 billion from $3.711 trillion the month before, and the lowest since September 2013! Putting all of this together, it reveals that China has already dumped a record total $107 billion in US Treasurys in 2015 to offset what is now quite clear capital flight from the mainland, and the most aggressive attempt to keep the Renminbi stable. Average: 5 Your rating:None Average:5 (10votes)
个人分类: treasury yield|8 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 China finally says how much gold it has, but nobody believes it
insight 2015-7-18 09:47
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-finally-says-how-much-gold-it-has-but-nobody-believes-it-2015-07-17 China finally says how much gold it has, but nobody believes it By Myra P. Saefong Published: July 17, 2015 2:43 p.m. ET 166 Investors question accuracy of data AFP/Getty Images China published its gold reserves data for first time since 2009. China released data on its gold holdings for the first time in about six years, but investors say the guessing game about the country’s actual inventory continues. The People’s Bank of China on Friday published figures on its gold reserves for the first time since 2009. Its official gold reserves stood at 53.3 million ounces, or 1,658 metric tons, in June. The last time China reported official figures was in April 2009. Back then, the figure stood at 1,054 metric tons, according to Ross Norman, chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley. The latest total is about half what the market thought it was. The market was generally expecting a total of well over 3,000 metric tons, according to Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. “There is much evidence that holdings are actually at those higher levels, which makes one wonder why they would feel compelled to understate the total now,” he said. FactSet China’s disclosure comes on a day when futures prices for gold logged their lowest settlement in more than five years . August gold GCQ5, -1.01% finished Friday at $1,131.90 an ounce on Comex. Read: China wants to steal gold-market ‘reins’ from New York, London Ken Ford, president of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors, said China has been pressing to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights, or SDR, currency basket. “So they want to show that the have accumulated enough, but do not want to show their whole hand because it may spook the markets,” he said. China has undertaken economic reforms aimed at persuading the IMF to include the yuan in the basket, which would accelerate its acceptance as a reserve currency. Read: China’s yuan has ‘Long March’ to reserve-currency status Or, China could be “lowballing” their reserves to maintain confidence in its substantial U.S. dollar holdings, according to Mark O’Byrne, research director at GoldCore in Dublin. But lifting the yuan’s potential as a global reserve currency is what’s behind China’s move to lift the shroud of mystery surrounding its hoard of gold. “China has ambitions to create a global reserve currency to challenge the hegemony of the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.30% and fill the void created by the declining holdings by central banks of the euro EURUSD, -0.4138% ” Norman said. And the Chinese “clearly recognize gold’s role in providing credibility and status to what would be a new currency on the international stage,” he said. The IMF will be considering the inclusion of the yuan “under the special drawing rights in October—evidently the PBOC has more legwork to do if they want to be taken seriously,” he said. That could mean China will be adding a lot more gold to its reserves in the months to come. O’Byrne said he wouldn’t be surprised if China starts to accumulate a minimum of 100 metric tons of gold a month. More from MarketWatch Russian stocks are a best buy amid global turmoil Greed is still trumping fear, and that’s bad for stocks Homes are less likely now than at any time since start of Great Recession to be… QUOTE REFERENCES GCQ5 -11.60 -1.01% DXY +0.30 +0.30% EURUSD -0.0045 -0.4138% MORE NEWS FROM MARKETWATCH Top Stories Trending Recommended China finally says how much gold it has, but nobody believes it Top money managers are turning to gold — should you? Gold settles at a more than five-year low The tax implications of owning gold It’s official: Google books biggest day in history, adding $66.9B MARKETWATCH PARTNER CENTER CONTENT FROM OUR SPONSORS From Fashion to Banking, One… Citi Blog Now Is A Good Time To Pick Up Some Oil Stocks TalkMarkets China's Market Crash — and the Man Who Saw… OZY Key Biscayne: A Crown Jewel for Miami… David Siddons Group Recommended by MYRA P. SAEFONG Myra Saefong is a MarketWatch reporter based in San Francisco. Follow her on Twitter @MktwSaefong.
个人分类: gold|27 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 The World's Exposure To China In 6 Easy Charts
insight 2015-6-24 15:45
The World's Exposure To China In 6 Easy Charts Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2015 21:00 -0400 China Natural Gas recovery Shadow Banking in Share 5 In “ Global Trade To Remain Subdued Until At Least 2020 ,” we highlighted the following excerpt from a Goldman piece on depressed dry bulk shipping rates: The transition from investment to consumption in the Chinese economy, together with a shift towards cleaner energy sources, has caused a sharp deceleration in dry bulk trade. After expanding at an average annual rate of 7% over the period 2005-14, seaborne demand in iron ore, thermal and metallurgical coal is set to increase by only 2% in 2015 to 2.5 billion tonnes as these trends persist. In the steel sector, domestic consumption growth ground to a halt in 2014 and the prospect of peak iron ore demand is nigh. In the power sector, demand for coal-fired generation is suffering from a combination of weaker economic growth, rising energy efficiency and a diversification in the fuel mix towards renewable energy, natural gas and nuclear. There are no other markets large and/or dynamic enough to offset a slowdown in China in the foreseeable future, and we forecast trade volumes to stabilize in the period to 2018. This speaks to the fact that Chinese demand is effectively the engine that drives global growth and, as we’ve said on too many occasions to count, the country’s difficult transition from an investment-led economy to a model driven by consumption and services, combined with a war on pollution and an impossible attempt to curtail shadow banking while preserving robust credit creation, will ultimately conspire to make China unreliable as the centerpiece of the global recovery thesis. UBS has more on the above: In the decade to 2014, China quadrupled the number of countries to which it was the biggest export market, as the US almost halved the number of countries for which it held the same title. Over the same period, all countries under our coverage saw China's share of their exports hold broadly steady or rise up to four-fold. The jump in their direct "true" reliance on China (excluding reprocessing trade) was even more dramatic, with South Africa's and Switzerland's up by more than 8 times, and Australia's by almost 5 times. Two factors have made global exporters more directly reliant on Chinese domestic demand and thus more vulnerable to the ongoing property-led downturn in recent years: 1) rapid growth of China’s domestic market; and 2) processing trade's declining share of Chinese trade due to China's expanding productive capacity. In this year’s version of our annual China export exposure chart book (available upon request), we show how China's slowing economy is affecting commodity, reprocessing, and developed country exporters alike. * * * UBS concludes: "However, with China's property construction deceleration set to deepen this year in a multi-year slowdown, we may see a longer-term decline in China's appetite for foreign industrial imports." In other words, when China lands hard, so do the rest of us. Average:
个人分类: 中国经济|4 次阅读|0 个评论
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