Based on the argument of growth accounting and other determinants, how would you anticipate the potential room for the future growth of China under the new normal steady state? China’s prospect for moderate growth are quite good given the track record of total factor productivity (TFP) growth over the last 20 years. A country’s growth potential is determined in large part by its ability to efficiently combine the factors of production with the highest productivity possible. Economic advancement based on superficial determinants such as increasing the quantity of the factors of production (i.e. increasing the number of physical capital devices and simply increasing the number of years in school), is not sustainable, because it does not address the performance of these factors, the deeper driver of growth. While China’s TFP has consistently lagged behind many Western countries, the growth in China’s TFP has been significant and sustained since Reform and Opening, suggesting that as long as the government continues to invest in policies that increase factor productivity, such as supportive infrastructure for physical capital, quality of education, and other efficiency-increasing investments, reasonable growth is highly probable.
十、中间段落万能句子 1. 相反，有一些人赞成……，他们相信……，而且，他们认为…… On the contrary ， there are some people in favor of ___.At the same time ， they say____. 2. 但是，我认为这不是解决……的好方法，比如……最糟糕的是…… But I don ” t think it is a very good way to solve ____.For example ， ____.Worst of all ， ___. 3. ……对我们国家的发展和建设是必不可少的，（也是）非常重要的。首先，……而且……，最重要的是…… ______is necessary and important to our country “ s development and construction.First ， ______.What ” s more, _____.Most important of all,______. 4. 有几个可供我们采纳的方法。首先，我们可以…… There are several measures for us to adopt.First, we can______ 5. 面临……，我们应该采取一系列行之有效的方法来……一方面……，另一方面， Confronted with______ ， we should take a series of effective measures to______.For one thing ， ______For another ， ______ 6. 早就应该拿出行动了。比如说……，另外……所有这些方法肯定会…… It is high time that something was done about it.For example._____.In addition._____.All these measures will certainly______. 7. 为什么……？第一个原因是……；第二个原因是……；第三个原因是……总的来说，……的主要原因是由于…… Why______? The first reason is that ______.The second reason is ______.The third is ______.For all this, the main cause of ______due to ______. 8. 然而，正如任何事物都有好坏两个方面一样，……也有它的不利的一面，象…… However, just like everything has both its good and bad sides, ______also has its own disadvantages, such as ______. 9. 尽管如此，我相信……更有利。 Nonetheless, I believe that ______is more advantageous. 10. 完全同意……这种观点（陈述），主要理由如下： I fully agree with the statement that ______ because______.
Problems that could be tackled using time series data: ● How the value of a country’s stock index has varied with that country’s macroeconomic fundamentals ● How the value of a company’s stock price has varied when it announced the value of its dividend payment ● The effect on a country’s exchange rate of an increase in its trade deficit. In all of the above cases, it is clearly the time dimension which is the most important, and the analysis will be conducted using the values of the variables over time.
The Jobs Number Is BS Says Former Head Of BLS Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/18/2013 15:57 -0400 Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Great Depression HFT Monetary Policy Obama Administration Quantitative Easing Real estate Real Unemployment Rate Reality Recession recovery Unemployment After every non-farm payroll report we provide our own breakdown of what the real unemployment rate is in a country in which the labor force participation rate has not been adjusted to normalize for the Second Great Depression. In the most recent such endeavor we found the "Real Unemployment Rate" to be 11.3%. To wit : As of May, assuming realistic LFP assumptions, the real U-3 unemployment rate should have been not 7.6% but 11.3%. Today, courtesy of the Post's John Crudele we find that our estimate was spot on not just from anyone, but the former head of the BLS himself: Keith Hall . Keith Hall believes the US economy is a lot sicker than the 7.6 percent unemployment rate would lead you to believe. And he should know. Hall was, from 2008 until last year, the guy in charge of Washington’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that compiles that rate. “Right now misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent. The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent. ... Hall reckons there are millions of U-6 people on top of the 4.5 million long-term unemployed. "This has been a very slow, very bad recovery,” he says. “And I think the numbers have really struggled as a result. In fact, I’ve been very disappointed in the coverage of the numbers." It is not just the artificial manipulation in the labor force participation rate, which we first brought up in 2010 and only became a mainstream theme this past year. There is also the monthly seasonal adjustment factor which provides the much needed smoothing function whose only job is to provide a "credible" number to be used by the HFT algos to ramp stock momentum almost exclusively to the upside: after all the only thing the Fed has left is to promote confidence in the economy using the only transmission mechanism subject to the Fed's central-planning: the manipulated monetary policy vehicle known as the SP500. There are other problems with numbers coming out of BLS, according to Hall. And they will just add to the confusion. All parts of Washington’s data-collecting machine adjust to smooth out the bumps caused by the seasons of the year. But the recession that started five years ago was so severe and the recovery so anemic that the seasonal adjustments have been thrown off. Crudele, a long-time skeptic of manipulated data, points out some other obvious divergences between the Fed's propaganda and reality: The Fed, and particularly Chairman Ben Bernanke, are acting rather strange these days. One minute Bernanke is suggesting that his highly controversial and very dangerous money-printing operation, called quantitative easing, will be tapered off in the near future because the economy is doing better. The next minute Bernanke is talking about how QE will continue if the economy isn’t strong enough to stand on its own. The Fed chief often points to the housing and the stock markets as evidence of economic improvement, although those are nonsense indicators. The stock market is only rising because Bernanke is printing so much money. And housing is improving, with prices rising sharply in spots, because big-time investors who can’t find anywhere else to park their assets profitably are scooping up big-city real estate by the bundle. Finally, while Hall isn't a whistleblower in the pure sense of the word, and hasn't disclosed any specific illegal data manipulation by the BLS, the fact that such systematic data "massaging" has been acknowledged by the former head of the statistical agency should be enough for the BLS and the Obama administration to hang their heads in shame. Of course, they won't - to a big part because nobody in the mainstream media will actually call them out on it - and will instead point to the SP hitting all time manipulated high after all time manipulated high as proof the economy is doing great. Alas, to their chagrin, nobody believes that particular lie anymore. 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Last week, we published a chart-essay that illustrates the extreme inequality that has developed in the US economy over the past 30 years. The charts explain what the Wall Street protesters are angry about. They also explain why the protesters' message is resonating with the country at large. Here are the four key points: 1. Unemployment is at the highest level since the Great Depression (with the exception of a brief blip in the early 1980s). 2. At the same time, corporate profits are at an all-time high , both in absolute dollars and as a share of the economy. Image: St. Louis Fed Image: St. Louis Fed 3. Wages as a percent of the economy are at an all-time low. In other words, corporate profits are at an all-time high, in part, because corporations are paying less of their revenue to employees than they ever have. There are lots of reasons for this, many of which are not the fault of the corporations. (It's a global economy now, and 2-3 billion new low-cost employees in China, India, et al, have recently entered the global workforce. This is putting pressure on wages the world over.) Image: St. Louis Fed 4. Income and wealth inequality in the US economy is near an all-time high: The owners of the country's assets (capital) are winning, everyone else (labor) is losing. Three charts illustrate this: The top earners are capturing a higher share of the national income than they have anytime since the 1920s: CEO pay and corporate profits have skyrocketed in the past 20 years, "production worker" pay has risen 4%. After adjusting for inflation, average earnings haven't increased in 50 years. It's worth noting that the US has been in a similar situation before: At the end of the "Roaring '20s," just before the start of the Great Depression. (See some of the charts above). It took the country 15-20 years to pull out of that slump and fix the imbalances. But by the mid-1950s, employment, corporate profits, wages, and inequality had all returned to more normal levels. And the country enjoyed a couple of decades of relatively well-balanced prosperity. But now, everything's out of whack again.
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