人大经济论坛 › 标签 › Economic › 相关日志

标签: Economic经管大学堂：名校名师名课

相关日志

分享经济增长导论: accumulation 2015-6-20 16:20; According to the theory of Professor Lin Yi-fu, it is important for an economy to strictly follow the comparative advantage determined by the endowment of each stage of economic development, making full use of the market mechanism and the government intervention. Thus the speed of accumulation of capital, upgrade of endowment structure, upgrade of industrial structure and economic growth will reach the fastest. Upgrade of industrial structure is determined by capital accumulation and upgrade of endowment structure. To reflect the endowment structure, capital stock per capita is a significant indicator. Taiwan’s gold periods of economic growth have seen the promotion of capital stock per capita. It is this promotion that resulted in the upgrade of Taiwan’s industrial structure.; 个人分类: 宏观经济学|0 个评论

分享 Taiwan Economic Miracle: Lessens in the Economic Development: accumulation 2015-6-19 12:22; Taiwan Economic Miracle: Lessens in the Economic Development 0 Preface 1 The process of Taiwan’s economic development 1.1 Trend of the GDP growth 1.2 Three stages of the industrial transition 2 Characterizing Taiwan’s macroeconomics 2.1 Consumption-led economy 2.2 Ups and downs 3 Explanation to Taiwan’s economic miracle 3.1 Literature review of existing theories 3.2 Capital accumulation increases comparative advantages 3.3 Demographic dividend promotes the expansion of manufacturing 3.4 Total factor Productivity (TFP) as a key factor 4 Root cause of Taiwan’s economic success 4.1 Change of government policies 4.2 Openness 5 Conclusion and Discussion 5.1 How did Taiwan grow? 5.2 Challenges and opportunities 5.2.1 Wage inequality 5.2.2 Less profit gained through pillar industry 5.2.3 Vulnerability to the global economic turbulence 5.2.4 Hollowing out of Taiwan’s industry 5.3 A prediction of Taiwan’s future development; 个人分类: 宏观经济学|0 个评论

分享 Growth Economics: accumulation 2015-4-28 23:08; How physical capital differs from human capital with respect to the relationship with the owner? How do you think of the argument on the limited role of increasing human capital in economic growth? Physical capital is independent of its owner; that is to say that physical capital can be separated from its owner and can change ownership over the course of it development. Human capital on the other hand, is inherent to its owner and the two cannot be separated, both ensuring the owner has the possibility of enjoying benefits of investment in this type of capital, but also placing inherit limits on the quantity and potential transferability of this type of capital. The argument that the upper limits on human capital investment limits eventual marginal returns to future investment suggests that investment in human capital has a limited, or decreasing over time, impact on economic growth. We should be cautious to discredit human capital investment, however, because human capital investment also has an indirect impact on the efficiency and productivity of physical capital: as technology advances and the efficiency of physical capital depends more and more on technological advancement, human capital advancement, such as quality of schooling, becomes more and more important in the full utilization of the so called endless driving power of physical capital. Yes, our current scales of health are top censored and one can only enjoy so many years of schooling, but health standards improvements and quality of schooling are both constantly advancing targets.; 个人分类: 宏观经济学|0 个评论

分享 Introductory Econometrics for Finance: accumulation 2015-3-11 01:36; Is financial econometrics different from ‘economic econometrics’? As previously stated, the tools commonly used in financial applications are fundamentally the same as those used in economic applications, although the emphasis and the sets of problems that are likely to be encountered when analysing the two sets of data are somewhat different. Financial data often differ from macroeconomic data in terms of their frequency, accuracy, seasonality and other properties. In economics, a serious problem is often a lack of data at hand for testing the theory or hypothesis of interest -- this is often called a ‘small samples problem’. It might be, for example, that data are required on government budget deficits, or population figures, which are measured only on an annual basis. If the methods used to measure these quantities changed a quarter of a century ago, then only at most twenty-five of these annual observations are usefully available. Two other problems that are often encountered in conducting applied econometric work in the arena of economics are those of measurement error and data revisions. These difficulties are simply that the data may be estimated, or measured with error, and will often be subject to several vintages of subsequent revisions. For example, a researcher may estimate an economic model of the effect on national output of investment in computer technology using a set of published data, only to find that the data for the last two years have been revised substantially in the next, updated publication. These issues are rarely of concern in finance. Financial data come in many shapes and forms, but in general the prices and other entities that are recorded are those at which trades actually took place, or which were quoted on the screens of information providers. There exists, of course, the possibility for typos and possibility for the data measurement method to change (for example, owing to stock index re-balancing or re-basing). But in general the measurement error and revisions problems are far less serious in the financial context. Similarly, some sets of financial data are observed at much higher frequencies than macroeconomic data. Asset prices or yields are often available at daily, hourly, or minute-by-minute frequencies. Thus the number of observations available for analysis can potentially be very large -- perhaps thousands or even millions, making financial data the envy of macroeconometricians! The implication is that more powerful techniques can often be applied to financial than economic data, and that researchers may also have more confidence in the results. Furthermore, the analysis of financial data also brings with it a number of new problems. While the difficulties associated with handling and processing such a large amount of data are not usually an issue given recent and continuing advances in computer power, financial data often have a number of additional characteristics. For example, financial data are often considered very ‘noisy’, which means that it is more difficult to separate underlying trends or patterns from random and uninteresting features. Financial data are also almost always not normally distributed in spite of the fact that most techniques in econometrics assume that they are. High frequency data often contain additional ‘patterns’ which are the result of the way that the market works, or the way that prices are recorded. These features need to be considered in the model-building process, even if they are not directly of interest to the researcher.; 个人分类: 金融学|0 个评论

分享 Introductory Econometrics for Finance: accumulation 2015-3-11 00:43; 1 Introduction 1 1.1 What is econometrics? 1 1.2 Is financial econometrics different from ‘economic econometrics’? 2 1.3 Types of data 3 1.4 Returns in financial modelling 7 1.5 Steps involved in formulating an econometric model 9 1.6 Points to consider when reading articles in empirical finance 10 1.7 Econometric packages for modelling financial data 11 1.8 Outline of the remainder of this book 22 1.9 Further reading 25 Appendix: Econometric software package suppliers 26; 个人分类: 金融学|0 个评论

分享 Guest Post: We Just Enjoyed the Last Christmas In America Tyler Durden's picture: insight 2014-12-27 11:42; Guest Post: We Just Enjoyed the Last Christmas In America Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/26/2014 17:00 -0500 ETC Federal Reserve Guest Post Reality Unemployment in Share 2 Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog , The end of rising wages = the end of mass affluence: we just enjoyed the Last Christmas in America (TLCIA). As unemployment topped 10%, the January 1975 cover of Ramparts magazine blared: The End of Affluence: The Last Christmas in America. (TLCIA) The government responded to the high unemployment, rampant inflation and rising budget deficits by manipulating data to mask the politically inconvenient realities of inflation, unemployment and deficits by playing with Social Security Trust Funds, inflation data, etc.--games it continues to play to cloak reality from the media-numbed public. The economic stagnation, despite various stock market rallies and false starts, essentially lasted 10 years, from 1973 to 1982. The malaise had a happy ending: huge new oil fields were discovered in Alaska, the North Sea, West Africa and elsewhere, ushering in a renewed era of cheap, abundant petroleum. President Reagan re-set Social Security for a generation and introduced a lower taxes, higher permanent deficits ideology that is now accepted as the only possible way to sustain the Status Quo: deficits don't matter, even when they reach the trillions, because our good friends the Gulf Oil Exporters and Asian exporters will buy all our debt forever and ever, keeping interest low forever and ever. (And if they drop the ball, then the Federal Reserve prints money and buys trillions of dollars of Treasury bonds. Sweet! We don't need any external buyers, just the Federal Reserve creating money out of thin air.) Then the U.S. created and launched two revolutionary technologies which both created new wealth around the globe: the personal computer (microprocessor and cheap RAM) and the Internet (TCP/IP, Ethernet, and the commercialization of Tim Berners-Lee's World Wide Web with free browsers) spawning the generation-long boom of the 1980s and 90s. Those "saves from stagnation" were one-offs; there will be no more supergiant energy finds, nor any equivalents of the Internet expansion cycle. When the wheels inevitably fell off the Internet/tech boom in 2000, the U.S. did not create a new engine of wealth: it opted instead for a devilishly insidious simulacrum of wealth: debt which rose at an exponential rate throughout the economy. Borrowed money and phony financial legerdemain (mortgage-backed securities, derivatives based on the MBS, etc. etc.) from 2000-2007 created what I have termed a "bogus prosperity": no actual new productive wealth was created, only a brief and self-liquidating bubble of debt-based housing and stock valuations. Compare the rate of GDP growth (another unreliable indicator, but all we have) with the astonishing rise in debt: Meanwhile, wages adjusted for inflation have stagnated for 15 years while asset prices for stores of value such as housing in desirable areas have skyrocketed in terms of median household income: Real household income has declined in the Bubble Era across the entire income spectrum: Here is real median household income and labor's share of the economy: both are in structural decline, and inflating asset bubbles has done nothing to reverse either trend. Why will Christmas 2014 be the last Christmas in America? It's simple: declining wages cannot support an ever-expanding mountain of debt. The Federal Reserve has played a game for six long years of lowering the cost of debt (i.e. the rate of interest borrowers must pay), which has enabled stagnating wages to support ever heavier debt loads. There is an endgame in sight to this financial trickery, a point of diminishing returns to lower interest rates: the Fed can't drop rates lower than 0%. Borrowers simply can't qualify for more debt, regardless of interest rates. The extreme fragility of an economy based on ever-expanding mountains of debt piled on declining incomes is apparent: if the Fed can't raise interest rates even a tiny quarter point without threatening to collapse the unstable pyramid of debt-based affluence/ consumption, what does that say about the fragility of the "growth" (supposedly running at a hot 5% annually) and "prosperity"? Claiming that a few hundred dollars in lower gasoline costs per household will enable a desert of declining income to bloom is the equivalent of claiming that an inch of rain in Death Valley will transform the desert into a lush tropical rain forest. Remember the lackluster Christmas of 2014 well; the endgame of expanding debt will play out as every endgame does: furious moves by central bankers will prolong checkmate but not transform the inevitable loss into a win. Media sound and fury are no substitute for rising real household wages and incomes. Average: 3.2 Your rating:None Average:3.2 (10votes); 个人分类: 美国经济|23 次阅读|0 个评论

分享 Census workers manipulated economic data: whistleblower: insight 2014-10-26 17:12; http://nypost.com/2014/10/22/census-workers-manipulated-economic-data-new-whistleblower/ Census workers manipulated economic data:whistleblower By John Crudele John Crudele Dear John: Sorely in need of correction 'Plunge protection' behind market's sudden recovery Dear John: Insurer should not lump it Stock market needs a healthy dose of fear Fed's ‘Doomsday Book’ written to save the market The city known as America’s story factory is making up Census data. In the latest allegation of The Post’s exclusive probe into fishy goings-on at the Census Bureau, a new whistleblower says workers in the Los Angeles region have been manipulating economic data. Contact information for the veteran Census worker — who reached out to me by e-mail recently and whom I interviewed by phone — has been turned over to congressional investigators who are looking into data falsification in other parts of the country. “Everybody knows falsification is going on,” the whistleblower told me, adding the malfeasance in the LA region is so obvious that it’s hard to miss. She said she’s coming forward now because she “applauds” the others who have spoken up already. Census employees have blown the whistle on the Denver and Philadelphia regions. A Denver whistleblower recently turned over information to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. A whistleblower in the Philadelphia region told me a year ago about the case of Julius Buckmon, a field rep who was a ccused of falsifying more than a hundred surveys each month . He was eventually caught and allowed to leave the bureau. But there was no public investigation until The Post broke Buckmon’s story last year. Since then, the Inspector General of the Commerce Department, which oversees Census, and the House Oversight Committee, along with the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, have conducted probes. Commerce Inspector General Todd Zinser found wrongdoing on the part of Buckmon — but exonerated the supervisors that Buckmon alleged ordered him to falsify data. Zinser also said he found no proof that the falsification was widespread. The LA whistleblower means that 1 Census workers in four of the six regions (Chicago, LA, Denver and Philadelphia) have alleged data falsification. So far, I haven’t heard from anyone in the New York or Atlanta regions. In what shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, it appears that since The Post investigation, all of the regions are reporting more trouble getting people to respond to their surveys. That could be because Americans have suddenly gotten more shy about personal details. Or it could reflect less cheating because of heightened scrutiny. Zinser said in his report there was no truth to allegations — made by a source to The Post last year — that the Census office in Philadelphia manipulated the national unemployment rate in the months before the last presidential election. In fact, Zinser said it was impossible to do. But he either ignored or didn’t know that 120 computers — 11 of which belonged to supervisors — went missing from the Philadelphia Census office in September 2012, two months before the election. That information was disclosed only after The Post obtained the e-mails of Philly supervisors under a Freedom of Information Act request. Meanwhile, Commerce is fighting the release of many other e-mails. The Oversight Committee also found wrongdoing with respect to Buckmon. It concluded that the Census’ data-gathering process had “vulnerabilities” that needed addressing. But the committee also said it couldn’t measure the scope of the falsification problem because Commerce had “obstructed” its investigation. The LA whistleblower says no one in official Washington has yet to reach out to her. But the allegation she is making can be easily checked by investigators without her help. “There are some FSAs that month after month had a 100 percent response rate” to their surveys,” she said. “That alone should raise flags!” “I can understand an occasional 100 percent response rate but you have to raise an eyebrow when some FSAs have 100 percent every month,” she said. Although the numbers vary according to area and which survey is being conducted, each FSA consists of 10 to 15 field reps reporting to one supervisor. The reps scour the area doing interviews and report back to the supervisor. If what the LA whistleblower says is true, either a bunch of field reps are awfully persuasive in completing interviews or they are filling in the survey answers themselves. The other possibility: Supervisors are fudging the results on the reps’ computers to indicate interviews were successfully completed. The stakes are high, of course. The Bureau of Labor Statistics requires a 90 percent success rate for interviews that go into the Current Population Survey, which Census conducts on BLS’ behalf. It’s those results that are used to calculate the nation’s monthly unemployment rate. “To be perfectly honest, the BLS should be questioning the data, not just you alone,” the LA whistleblower said. Share this: Share Facebook Twitter Google Email Filed under Census , Los Angeles , Whistleblowers; 个人分类: data|16 次阅读|0 个评论

京ICP备16021002号-2 京B2-20170662号京公网安备 11010802022788号论坛法律顾问：王进律师知识产权保护声明免责及隐私声明