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分享 How To Arbitrage The People's Bank Of China
insight 2013-5-22 15:28
How To Arbitrage The People's Bank Of China Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2013 18:39 -0400 China Hong Kong LIBOR Since there are now numerous hard proofs that China’s export data (and to some extent import data as well) were significantly distorted recently , we naturally wonder the incentives behind the distortion and the detailed mechanism of these manipulations. As BofAML notes, there are four reasons why the distortions have risen so sharply since Q4 2012 but the various arbitrages (described in actionable detail below) between onshore and offshore currencies and interest rate differentials (and the role of gold in this) remain in place to make judging China's real trade growth as much art as science. Via BofAML, In the starting period of using RMB for trade settlement (2010-2011), people might not learn the trick on how to benefit from the differential between CNH and CNY exchange rates. And the differential was quite small before October 2012 when markets perceived a significant RMB/USD depreciation. Only since 4Q12 several preconditions were ripe for massively manipulating trade data. First, RMB/USD started appreciating again. Second, the China’s economic growth started rebounding. These two preconditions made it attractive to bring in hot money via over-reporting exports. Third, the differentials between CNH/USD and CNY/USD got widened in 4Q12 with CNH/USD becoming more expensive than CNY/USD, making it’s profitable to do arbitrage (more details below). Fourth, people were experienced enough to use RMB trade settlement to carry out relatively complicated arbitrage. Arbitrage the CNY-CNH exchange rate differentials Demand for RMB assets in offshore markets has picked up since 4Q12 on a better growth outlook and the introduction of new investment tools such as RQFII, causing CNH/USD (RMB traded offshore) to be more expensive than CNY/USD (RMB traded onshore). At the peak in January, CNH was 0.6% more expensive than CNY. Consequently, arbitrage opportunities between CNY and CNH arise if people can manage to bring CNY to offshore RMB centers like Hong Kong. The trick is seemingly complicated, but actually the arbitrage is quite simple. Let’s use an example to reveal the mechanism of this arbitrage. 1. In mainland China, an arbitrager could borrow US$1.0mn and convert to CNY at exchange rate 6.20 (so he gets RMB6.2mn); 2. He could import something with minimum transportation costs such as gold from Hong Kong and settle the imports with the borrowed RMB6.2mn. In this way, this RMB6.2mn flows to Hong Kong and becomes CNH; 3. He then instructs his business partners (or his Hong Kong subsidiaries) to converts the RMB6.2mn to USD in HK. Assuming USD/CNH is 6.15, he gets US$1,008,130; 4. Finally he exports the previously imported gold which is settled in USD. In this way, US$1,008,130 flows into mainland China and the arbitrager completes the whole deal with a profit at US$8130 (perhaps less than that due to some transport and custom fees). Arbitrage the differentials between CNH and CNY interest rates Another arbitrage can gain purely from the interest rate differentials between CNH and CNY. Note interest rates for RMB are different onshore and off-shore. An arbitrager can gain by borrowing CNH at low rates, converting CNH to CNY and depositing CNY at higher rates. Currently the spread could be around 70bp. Here is an example on how to carry out this arbitrage. 1. In mainland China, an arbitrager borrows RMB1.0mn at a rate of 6% for two weeks (the time needed for getting CNH loans in Hong Kong), he then deposits RMB1.0mn in a bank with deposit rate at 3% and ask the bank to issue L/C for him; 2. With the L/C, his Hong Kong partners could get RMB1.0mn loans from HK bank for one year. The arbitrager then export something with minimum transportation costs to Hong Kong and the RMB1.0mn is sent to mainland China. He repays the RMB1.0mn. 3. His profit is calculated as follows. The revenue is the differential between the onshore RMB deposit rate and the offshore RMB financing costs. Currently the spread is around 70bp after deducting related costs, so the revenue is RMB7000. His cost for borrowing RMB1.0mn for one month is 2500. So his risk-free net return is RMB4500. Arbitrage on interest rates differential and RMB appreciation The most complicated arbitrage can gain from RMB appreciation, the interest rate differentials between onshore RMB and offshore USD, and the differential between CNH/USD and CNY/USD. Note that 1yr RMB deposit rate in China is now 3.0% but 1yr dollar lending rate in HK is lower than 2% (LIBOR +100bp). Here is an example on how to carry out this arbitrage. 1. In mainland China, an arbitrager borrows RMB1.0mn at a rate of 6% for two weeks, he then put RMB1.0mn as 1yr time deposits in a bank at 3% and ask the bank to issue L/C for him; 2. Assume USD/CNH is 6.15. With the L/C, his Hong Kong partners could get 1yr dollar loans of US$162,602 (=1000,000/6.15) at 2% from a HK bank. 3. The arbitrager then exports something with minimum transportation costs to Hong Kong and the US$162,602 is sent to mainland China. Assuming USD/CNY is at 6.2, he can get RMB1,008,132. He repays the original RMB loan at the amount of RMB1002,500 (RMB2,500 is interest payment) and obtain an immediate profit at RMB5632 which he will also put in 1yr deposit. 4. One year later, his time deposits will be valued at RMB1,035,801 (with interest payment). Assuming CNY/USD appreciated 2%, he can convert his this to US$171,774. 5. He imports the goods from Hong Kong he exported a year ago by paying US$165854 (=162602*1.02). In this way he moves US$165854 to HK to repay his loans (principal plus interest payment). 6. His net profit (in one year) is US$5920. Outright hot money inflow In the above three cases of arbitrage, the person could even raise prices of exports which were previously imported to bring in hot money. When people believe the Chinese economy is safe (especially as growth recovers) and CNY/USD will appreciate, they have the incentive to take in hot money to benefit from higher interest rates in China (than USD rates) and CNY/USD appreciation. Average: 4 Your rating: None Average: 4 ( 3 votes)
个人分类: 中国经济|0 个评论
分享 F 2012 2
cutelxh 2013-5-21 20:14
房屋:竣工面积 万平方米 与全国数的差值 527.60 4972.05 7892.59 5132.21 3989.98 2958.06 -0.12 3084.34 3225.26 3225.20 2140.13 85.23 地区合计数 470587.57 402348.07 347962.93 311104.15 251628.44 229902.48 206868.91 187787.35 159365.16 142579.23 108476.00 86385.41 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 指标名称 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001     排序 2006-2012年均复合增速 2002-2012年均增速 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 全国 470059.97 397376.02 340070.34 305971.94 247638.46 226944.42 206869.03 184703.01 156139.90 139354.03 106335.87 86300.18 全国 14.66 16.02 18.29 16.85 11.14 23.56 9.12 9.70 12.00 18.29 12.05 31.05 23.22 海南 3882.40 1899.13 1833.19 1646.21 1255.70 1153.94 623.36 889.40 421.93 293.77 191.61 123.71 海南 1 35.64 35.10 104.43 3.60 11.36 31.10 8.82 85.12 -29.91 110.79 43.63 53.32 54.89 广西 14637.54 10933.67 7594.06 6453.61 5543.94 5588.51 4370.80 5035.88 4024.40 2242.13 1241.93 925.49 广西 2 22.32 27.98 33.88 43.98 17.67 16.41 -0.80 27.86 -13.21 25.13 79.49 80.54 34.19 河北 21996.33 22051.53 13040.59 7767.59 4810.18 4853.02 4713.70 3818.79 3002.28 3327.33 1872.20 2210.11 河北 3 29.27 27.94 -0.25 69.10 67.88 61.48 -0.88 2.96 23.43 27.20 -9.77 77.72 -15.29 河南 26421.09 21137.83 17063.45 13248.66 10202.67 9873.45 5895.81 5066.27 3927.87 3525.71 2552.23 2083.78 河南 4 28.40 26.33 24.99 23.88 28.79 29.85 3.33 67.47 16.37 28.98 11.41 38.14 22.48 黑龙 11133.39 6960.32 6331.12 4897.44 2682.20 3203.74 3080.69 2554.64 3653.46 2306.42 1217.94 1404.20 黑龙 5 23.88 24.77 59.96 9.94 29.27 82.59 -16.28 3.99 20.59 -30.08 58.40 89.37 -13.26 湖南 25136.65 20169.65 14993.62 15515.29 10622.65 8783.61 7430.74 6705.98 6252.83 4218.30 2759.87 1870.30 湖南 6 22.52 24.72 24.63 34.52 -3.36 46.06 20.94 18.21 10.81 7.25 48.23 52.84 47.56 甘肃 4154.62 2869.67 2813.59 2340.04 2370.04 2133.62 2002.18 1677.37 1338.84 800.28 517.43 516.94 甘肃 7 12.94 23.16 44.78 1.99 20.24 -1.27 11.08 6.56 19.36 25.29 67.30 54.66 0.09 云南 9423.82 6707.55 7733.22 8163.96 4682.64 4152.10 3539.01 2884.29 1933.60 1787.59 1252.13 935.93 云南 8 17.73 22.37 40.50 -13.26 -5.28 74.35 12.78 17.32 22.70 49.17 8.17 42.76 33.78 宁夏 4684.69 3227.26 3223.91 2796.57 2083.35 1314.61 1295.52 1879.23 1251.85 1108.04 656.27 405.86 宁夏 9 23.89 21.72 45.16 0.10 15.28 34.23 58.48 1.47 -31.06 50.12 12.98 68.84 61.70 江西 10372.68 9506.29 9750.47 7963.75 5148.83 5972.42 5666.52 5060.01 4085.50 3139.63 1621.28 1325.95 江西 10 10.60 20.39 9.11 -2.50 22.44 54.67 -13.79 5.40 11.99 23.85 30.13 93.65 22.27 辽宁 27098.86 23382.95 17938.18 14947.02 10700.75 8497.16 7298.91 5077.90 4720.59 5086.95 4367.54 3415.76 辽宁 11 24.44 20.02 15.89 30.35 20.01 39.68 25.93 16.42 43.74 7.57 -7.20 16.47 27.86 内蒙 9269.36 11973.52 10085.31 8444.36 7323.28 5822.00 2904.30 1955.52 1802.50 1769.42 1598.19 891.77 内蒙 12 21.34 19.22 -22.58 18.72 19.43 15.31 25.79 100.46 48.52 8.49 1.87 10.71 79.22 重庆 21337.41 18080.03 13990.91 13587.64 9715.50 9655.98 8337.28 9036.33 5816.37 5323.12 3743.64 2960.91 重庆 13 16.96 19.01 18.02 29.23 2.97 39.86 0.62 15.82 -7.74 55.36 9.27 42.19 26.44 山东 35908.57 30461.63 23162.66 22050.82 16917.22 15310.88 14443.09 11154.83 8087.47 7472.35 6473.12 4390.71 山东 14 16.39 18.69 17.88 31.51 5.04 30.35 10.49 6.01 29.48 37.93 8.23 15.44 47.43 山西 7111.69 6181.88 4043.75 3015.78 3428.56 2350.45 1824.96 2048.29 1299.74 1593.92 1309.91 532.40 山西 15 25.44 18.43 15.04 52.87 34.09 -12.04 45.87 28.79 -10.90 57.59 -18.46 21.68 146.04 安徽 19729.14 15098.46 14360.59 12505.52 10240.84 9698.43 8507.31 6635.23 5764.23 5023.04 3692.98 2987.11 安徽 16 15.05 18.24 30.67 5.14 14.83 22.11 5.59 14.00 28.21 15.11 14.76 36.02 23.63 江苏 48780.51 40949.66 41301.50 38783.68 32463.93 24652.08 24074.58 19882.35 14454.69 10784.63 9210.99 7818.83 江苏 17 12.49 18.14 19.12 -0.85 6.49 19.47 31.69 2.40 21.09 37.55 34.03 17.08 17.81 湖北 16562.48 12868.00 11836.11 9746.65 6851.14 6464.88 5609.33 5018.24 4914.92 3917.15 3243.36 3031.71 湖北 18 19.78 17.71 28.71 8.72 21.44 42.26 5.97 15.25 11.78 2.10 25.47 20.77 6.98 青海 1850.23 1595.66 1294.97 785.00 912.00 652.06 627.20 702.85 712.14 704.31 377.84 270.17 青海 19 19.76 17.22 15.95 23.22 64.96 -13.93 39.86 3.96 -10.76 -1.30 1.11 86.40 39.85 陕西 8438.49 5156.65 4138.37 4076.28 2926.08 2763.18 1925.69 2314.31 1864.04 1580.10 1839.24 1648.24 陕西 20 27.92 16.46 63.64 24.61 1.52 39.31 5.90 43.49 -16.79 24.16 17.97 -14.09 11.59 贵州 7166.39 5897.60 4453.86 5885.91 2902.70 2386.64 2436.21 2703.41 2729.64 1651.77 1607.19 1179.98 贵州 21 19.70 16.12 21.51 32.42 -24.33 102.77 21.62 -2.03 -9.88 -0.96 65.26 2.77 36.20 吉林 7238.15 6614.24 7122.10 3884.91 3490.74 3452.08 1528.72 2390.12 1721.30 1520.85 1683.95 1115.71 吉林 22 29.58 15.70 9.43 -7.13 83.33 11.29 1.12 125.82 -36.04 38.86 13.18 -9.69 50.93 四川 29169.59 21876.40 19400.63 17549.36 12305.97 12349.44 12475.59 8936.67 9818.13 10204.79 7422.98 5329.88 四川 23 15.21 14.67 33.34 12.76 10.55 42.61 -0.35 -1.01 39.60 -8.98 -3.79 37.48 39.27 新疆 6663.88 5999.57 4598.98 3337.38 2579.80 2172.93 1800.61 1996.41 1588.91 2407.43 2313.96 1574.38 新疆 24 24.37 11.16 11.07 30.45 37.80 29.37 18.72 20.68 -9.81 25.65 -34.00 4.04 46.98 福建 11997.25 13044.12 12158.54 11908.83 8418.29 7469.08 6774.79 7712.95 6839.12 5788.47 4613.74 4130.01 福建 25 9.99 10.03 -8.03 7.28 2.10 41.46 12.71 10.25 -12.16 12.78 18.15 25.46 11.71 广东 32907.77 29488.61 28902.55 25205.05 21648.72 19653.50 20462.18 16187.91 17119.77 19364.56 13681.27 11984.73 广东 26 8.24 9.17 11.59 2.03 14.67 16.43 10.15 -3.95 26.40 -5.44 -11.59 41.54 14.16 浙江 19220.26 21762.81 18731.90 16374.33 19539.93 16030.80 16224.06 14390.97 11675.15 11959.66 8700.12 6894.22 浙江 27 2.86 8.25 -11.68 16.18 14.40 -16.20 21.89 -1.19 12.74 23.26 -2.38 37.47 26.19 天津 6761.23 5822.92 5706.41 5523.09 5512.70 5494.84 5281.24 4973.14 4155.96 3595.49 3218.39 2999.67 天津 28 4.20 7.71 16.11 2.04 3.32 0.19 0.33 4.04 6.20 19.66 15.59 11.72 7.29 西藏 113.95 137.29 230.77 334.27 316.74 199.10 110.76 62.95 25.37 0.29 71.30 0.00 西藏 29 0.47 4.80 -17.00 -40.51 -30.96 5.53 59.09 79.76 75.95 148.13 8,648.28 -99.59 #DIV/0! 北京 9178.58 8752.36 10756.42 11039.84 11232.88 12548.69 12177.13 15924.92 10781.57 8262.61 6435.13 4576.84 北京 30 -4.60 3.61 4.87 -18.63 -2.57 -1.72 -10.49 3.05 -23.53 47.71 30.49 28.40 40.60 上海 12240.59 11740.83 9371.18 11325.31 12798.47 15249.26 13426.64 13110.19 13580.99 11819.12 8988.27 6850.11 上海 31 -1.53 3.14 4.26 25.29 -17.25 -11.51 -16.07 13.57 2.41 -3.47 14.91 31.49 31.21 注:2012年的缺失值用2011年数据代替了。 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 同比增速 #NAME? 指标名称 单位 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 2005-2011年均复合增速 2001-2011年均增速 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 全国 全国:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 177,334.00 191,236.87 163,646.87 116,422.05 102,553.37 95,401.53 79,252.83 68,064.44 60,413.86 54,707.53 42,800.52 37,394.18 29,582.64 22,579.41 全国 18.79 17.73 -7.27 16.86 40.56 13.52 7.50 20.38 16.44 12.66 10.43 27.82 14.46 26.41 31.02 海南 海南省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 1,629.06 1,629.06 1,136.12 807.26 594.69 339.95 294.93 253.39 254.36 170.67 73.19 94.83 30.47 41.71 海南 36.36 32.89 0.00 43.39 40.74 35.74 74.93 15.27 16.40 -0.38 49.04 133.19 -22.82 211.22 -26.95 内蒙 内蒙古自治区:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 8,236.26 8,236.26 6,270.34 4,387.60 3,831.26 3,305.29 2,556.02 1,425.01 901.60 795.91 643.57 691.79 480.37 315.90 内蒙 33.96 28.11 0.00 31.35 42.91 14.52 15.91 29.31 79.37 58.05 13.28 23.67 -6.97 44.01 52.06 河北 河北省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 7,641.80 11,182.80 9,629.16 6,786.00 3,768.81 2,797.55 2,280.51 1,970.80 1,636.82 1,529.49 994.75 992.08 859.72 725.71 河北 33.55 27.41 -31.66 16.13 41.90 80.06 34.72 22.67 15.71 20.40 7.02 53.76 0.27 15.40 18.47 云南 云南省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4,907.07 4,907.07 3,702.76 2,820.84 2,167.11 2,018.53 1,255.01 1,294.43 948.18 701.23 455.54 479.07 351.37 309.64 云南 24.87 26.20 0.00 32.52 31.26 30.17 7.36 60.84 -3.05 36.52 35.22 53.93 -4.91 36.34 13.48 河南 河南省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 9,890.83 9,890.83 8,610.57 7,115.63 5,551.26 5,078.38 3,330.88 2,150.58 1,879.23 1,486.47 1,155.71 969.56 786.94 574.44 河南 28.96 26.14 0.00 14.87 21.01 28.18 9.31 52.46 54.88 14.44 26.42 28.62 19.20 23.21 36.99 湖南 湖南省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 7,318.64 7,318.64 6,443.30 5,319.82 4,231.36 3,562.36 2,845.66 2,106.40 1,897.14 1,476.75 993.53 723.65 678.37 394.70 湖南 23.07 26.03 0.00 13.59 21.12 25.72 18.78 25.19 35.10 11.03 28.47 48.64 37.29 6.67 71.87 宁夏 宁夏回族自治区:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 1,989.20 1,989.20 1,808.73 1,160.26 867.39 718.59 697.26 580.85 602.17 532.55 307.30 202.60 171.98 135.28 宁夏 22.77 25.66 0.00 9.98 55.89 33.76 20.71 3.06 20.04 -3.54 13.07 73.30 51.68 17.80 27.13 广西 广西壮族自治区:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 3,741.88 3,991.65 4,750.57 3,020.02 2,258.39 2,184.89 1,776.74 1,633.29 1,313.97 1,058.18 626.95 441.15 300.00 228.90 广西 16.06 24.64 -6.26 -15.98 57.30 33.72 3.36 22.97 8.78 24.30 24.17 68.78 42.12 47.05 31.06 甘肃 甘肃省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 1,777.56 1,777.56 1,395.98 1,046.92 986.09 695.72 560.33 389.78 693.38 462.45 263.44 204.84 182.14 135.22 甘肃 28.78 24.12 0.00 27.33 33.34 6.17 41.74 24.16 43.76 -43.79 49.94 75.54 28.61 12.46 34.70 安徽 安徽省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 8,658.67 8,658.67 7,353.95 5,315.62 4,585.04 3,714.17 3,171.88 2,623.41 2,191.49 1,655.56 1,240.65 1,053.26 896.08 646.59 安徽 22.02 23.45 0.00 17.74 38.35 15.93 23.45 17.10 20.91 19.71 32.37 33.44 17.79 17.54 38.59 陕西 陕西省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4,027.44 4,027.44 3,270.32 2,796.27 2,051.24 1,446.78 1,105.31 1,234.75 897.84 944.09 950.26 529.46 517.80 414.67 陕西 21.78 22.50 0.00 23.15 16.95 36.32 41.78 30.89 -10.48 37.52 -4.90 -0.65 79.48 2.25 24.87 山西 山西省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4,166.30 2,849.44 2,782.05 2,444.06 1,414.75 1,228.30 1,471.78 1,156.01 753.69 685.33 478.88 398.05 242.78 412.47 山西 16.23 21.75 46.21 2.42 13.83 72.76 15.18 -16.54 27.32 53.38 9.97 43.11 20.31 63.96 -41.14 黑龙 黑龙江省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 7,274.22 7,274.22 5,021.43 2,995.55 2,241.07 1,834.07 1,747.74 1,485.11 1,242.93 1,110.41 868.53 1,195.38 847.31 727.39 黑龙 30.32 19.79 0.00 44.86 67.63 33.67 22.19 4.94 17.68 19.48 11.93 27.85 -27.34 41.08 16.49 山东 山东省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 14,065.34 14,065.34 12,330.21 8,491.78 7,662.36 6,623.54 5,930.33 5,650.04 4,017.45 4,039.93 2,804.47 2,355.83 2,110.73 1,406.02 山东 16.42 19.56 0.00 14.07 45.20 10.82 15.68 11.69 4.96 40.64 -0.56 44.05 19.04 11.61 50.12 天津 天津市:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 3,295.56 3,295.56 2,911.67 2,555.50 2,440.24 2,114.31 1,906.36 1,579.45 1,216.58 838.17 825.28 569.34 617.86 497.29 天津 13.04 19.19 0.00 13.18 13.94 4.72 15.42 10.91 20.70 29.83 45.15 1.56 44.95 -7.85 24.25 江西 江西省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 3,486.67 3,486.67 2,344.98 2,300.96 2,529.90 2,613.94 2,360.70 2,490.82 1,698.47 1,484.17 935.39 606.99 490.92 372.13 江西 5.77 19.10 0.00 48.69 1.91 -9.05 -3.21 10.73 -5.22 46.65 14.44 58.67 54.10 23.64 31.92 福建 福建省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 5,342.97 7,069.47 4,679.56 2,423.35 2,797.74 3,927.10 2,497.01 2,196.57 1,911.63 1,903.00 1,601.26 1,238.41 1,102.85 1,009.75 福建 21.51 19.03 -24.42 51.07 93.10 -13.38 -28.76 57.27 13.68 14.91 0.45 18.84 29.30 12.29 9.22 贵州 贵州省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 2,885.07 2,885.07 2,871.15 1,755.24 1,593.51 1,574.63 1,289.05 1,007.70 877.80 902.94 537.21 517.80 412.67 204.54 贵州 19.16 18.74 0.00 0.48 63.58 10.15 1.20 22.15 27.92 14.80 -2.78 68.08 3.75 25.48 101.75 江苏 江苏省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 14,720.76 14,720.76 13,745.42 9,209.46 10,725.53 9,301.03 7,860.97 6,653.24 6,507.63 5,143.31 3,601.95 2,646.55 2,167.92 2,165.67 江苏 14.15 18.72 0.00 7.10 49.25 -14.14 15.32 18.32 18.15 2.24 26.53 42.79 36.10 22.08 0.10 湖北 湖北省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 5,577.11 5,577.11 5,725.77 3,975.84 3,112.99 2,900.65 2,355.67 2,292.92 2,026.90 1,542.34 1,207.06 1,020.54 954.36 744.62 湖北 15.97 18.51 0.00 -2.60 44.01 27.72 7.32 23.13 2.74 13.12 31.42 27.78 18.28 6.93 28.17 辽宁 辽宁省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 13,828.90 12,444.28 12,647.90 8,305.44 6,761.89 6,536.45 4,495.71 3,638.39 2,938.61 2,617.63 2,419.04 2,299.56 1,966.96 1,328.00 辽宁 22.75 18.39 11.13 -1.61 52.28 22.83 3.45 45.39 23.56 23.81 12.26 8.21 5.20 16.91 48.11 吉林 吉林省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4,991.45 4,991.45 3,525.30 3,262.45 2,923.76 2,932.80 2,117.92 1,286.14 1,056.05 960.28 1,008.76 995.21 616.39 403.51 吉林 25.36 17.50 0.00 41.59 8.06 11.58 -0.31 38.48 64.67 21.79 9.97 -4.81 1.36 61.46 52.76 青海 青海省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 532.33 532.33 700.67 505.13 299.12 273.99 209.89 243.06 185.93 236.34 168.08 127.62 127.88 60.60 青海 13.96 15.35 0.00 -24.03 38.71 68.87 9.17 30.54 -13.65 30.73 -21.33 40.61 31.70 -0.20 111.01 四川 四川省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 8,435.82 8,435.82 7,731.66 5,235.88 4,962.01 5,228.86 4,847.03 3,684.37 3,146.84 3,646.77 2,604.28 2,024.29 1,627.48 1,261.74 四川 14.80 15.34 0.00 9.11 47.67 5.52 -5.10 7.88 31.56 17.08 -13.71 40.03 28.65 24.38 28.99 重庆 重庆市:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 6,824.36 6,824.36 6,312.64 3,813.68 3,508.62 3,555.87 2,709.28 2,334.75 2,144.84 2,098.24 1,709.47 1,661.19 1,290.05 847.50 重庆 19.57 15.18 0.00 8.11 65.53 8.69 -1.33 31.25 16.04 8.85 2.22 22.74 2.91 28.77 52.22 新疆 新疆维吾尔自治区:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 2,974.51 2,974.51 2,177.24 1,718.17 1,703.86 1,347.11 1,035.59 793.55 782.81 782.78 577.04 912.06 453.63 212.73 新疆 24.64 12.55 0.00 36.62 26.72 0.84 26.48 30.08 30.50 1.37 0.00 35.65 -36.73 101.06 113.24 广东 广东省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 10,615.73 12,013.99 9,904.38 6,479.85 6,557.16 7,412.47 5,674.38 4,989.82 4,921.63 4,328.19 4,175.23 3,845.01 3,245.03 2,798.02 广东 15.77 12.07 -11.64 21.30 52.85 -1.18 -11.54 30.63 13.72 1.39 13.71 3.66 8.59 18.49 15.98 浙江 浙江省:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 10,210.60 10,210.60 7,841.27 5,606.45 5,256.52 5,268.66 4,847.81 4,859.59 5,487.37 4,988.70 3,738.82 3,370.45 2,376.09 1,826.24 浙江 13.17 11.72 0.00 30.22 39.86 6.66 -0.23 8.68 -0.24 -11.44 10.00 33.43 10.93 41.85 30.11 上海 上海市:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 3,726.14 3,726.14 3,030.59 2,483.05 2,772.37 2,251.75 2,781.34 3,055.47 3,196.19 3,134.53 2,612.74 2,426.75 1,992.31 1,308.60 上海 3.36 4.38 0.00 22.95 22.05 -10.44 23.12 -19.04 -8.97 -4.40 1.97 19.97 7.66 21.81 52.25 北京 北京市:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4,246.05 4,246.05 2,974.24 2,246.60 2,337.22 2,557.40 3,179.35 2,965.93 3,054.27 3,433.75 3,206.00 2,789.82 1,676.86 1,061.76 北京 6.16 4.29 0.00 42.76 32.39 -3.88 -8.61 -19.56 7.20 -2.89 -11.05 7.10 14.92 66.37 57.93 西藏 西藏自治区:新开工房屋面积 万平方米 4.53 4.53 16.92 37.35 60.12 56.42 60.37 38.81 30.05 17.37 16.16 11.05 7.31 8.10 西藏 -30.08 -8.52 0.00 -73.20 -54.70 -37.87 6.56 -6.54 55.53 29.16 73.00 7.49 46.24 51.16 -9.79 指标名称 房地产开发投资完成额:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:住宅:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比增长 房地产开发投资完成额:住宅:累计同比增长 商品房销售面积:累计值 商品房销售面积:累计值:同比 全国:房屋平均销售价格 全国:房屋平均销售价格:同比 商品房销售额:累计值 商品房销售额:累计值:同比 2012-12 71804 49374 16.30 11.43 111,303.65 1.24 64,455.79 9.03 2011-12 61739.8 44308 27.93 30.22 109,945.56 5.36 5,357.10 6.46 59,119.09 12.65 2010-12 48259.4 34026.23 33.16 32.84 104,349.11 11.35 5,032.00 7.50 52,478.72 19.28 2009-12 36241.81 25613.69 16.15 14.14 93,713.04 50.93 4,681.00 23.18 43,994.54 82.77 24.31 2008-12 31203.19 22440.87 23.39 24.63 62,088.94 -18.51 3,800.00 -1.65 24,071.41 -18.69 2007-12 25288.84 18005.42 30.20 32.02 76,192.70 25.67 3,863.90 14.77 29,603.87 44.34 2006-12 19422.92 13638.41 22.09 25.57 60,628.14 8.71 3,366.79 6.29 20,509.68 13.44 2005-12 15909.2 10860.93 20.91 22.90 55,769.14 45.87 3,167.66 14.03 18,080.30 74.26 2004-12 13158.3 8836.95 29.59 30.40 38,231.64 18.56 2,778.00 17.76 10,375.71 35.26 2003-12 10153.8 6776.69 30.33 29.63 32,247.24 29.15 2,359.00 4.84 7,670.90 34.08 2002-12 7790.9 5227.76 22.81 23.98 24,969.29 20.16 2,250.00 3.69 5,721.22 23.68 2001-12 6344.1 4216.68 27.29 27.32 20,779.24 22.35 2,170.00 2.75 4,625.72 29.50 2000-12 4984.1 3311.98 21.47 25.53 16,984.10 26.93 2,112.00 2.87 3,572.00 34.52 1999-12 4103.2 2638.48 13.53 26.75 13,380.60 25.18 2,053.00 -0.48 2,655.33 24.38 1998-12 3614.2 2081.56 13.71 35.22 10,689.20 2,063.00 3.30 2,134.89 1997-12 3178.4 1539.38 -1.18   1,997.00 10.55 1996-12 3216.4   2.14   1,806.40 13.55 1995-12 3149   23.29   1,590.86 12.94 1994-12 2554.08   31.82       1,408.64 9.07       1993-12 1937.51   164.98   1,291.46 29.84 1992-12 731.2 117.52   994.66 26.52 1991-12 336.16 32.74 786.19 1990-12 253.25 -7.12 1989-12 272.65 Bitmap 5.99 1988-12 257.23 71.62 1987-12 149.88 48.45 1986-12 100.96 2 000-2012年增长倍数 13.40661303 13.90769872 单位 万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 亿元 亿元 % % 万平方米 万平方米 指标名称 商品房施工面积:累计值 商品房施工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房施工面积:累计同比 商品房施工面积:住宅:累计同比 商品房新开工面积:累计值 商品房新开工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房新开工面积:累计同比 商品房新开工面积:住宅:累计同比 商品房竣工面积:累计值 商品房竣工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房竣工面积:累计同比 商品房竣工面积:住宅:累计同比 商品房销售面积:累计值 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计值 商品房销售面积:累计同比 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计同比 商品房销售额:累计值 商品房销售额:住宅:累计值 商品房销售额:累计同比增长 商品房销售额:住宅:累计同比增长 商品房待售面积:累计值 商品房待售面积:住宅:累计值 全国:房屋平均销售价格 全国:房屋平均销售价格同比增长 全国:房屋平均销售价格:住宅 全国:房屋平均销售价格:住宅同比增长 商品房平均销售价格:同比增长 2012-12 573,417.52 428,964.05 13.20 10.60 177,333.62 130,695.42 -7.30 -11.20 99,424.96 79,043.20 7.30 6.40 111,303.65 98,467.51 1.80 2.00 64,455.79 53,467.18 10.00 10.90 36,460.00 23,619.00 5,790.99 7.70 5429.93 8.37 8.365743 2011-12 507,959.39 388,438.59 25.30 23.40 190,082.70 146,034.57 16.20 12.90 89,244.25 71,692.33 13.30 13.00 109,945.56 97,030.26 4.90 3.90 59,119.09 48,619.39 12.10 10.20 27,194.00 16,904.00 5,377.12 6.92 5010.75 6.08 6.080165 2010-12 405,538.91 314,942.59 26.60 25.30 163,776.67 129,467.93 40.70 38.80 75,960.97 61,215.72 4.50 2.70 104,349.11 93,051.56 10.10 8.00 52,478.72 43,953.33 18.30 14.40 5,029.15 7.13 4723.55 5.59 5.587409 2009-12 319,649.54 250,804.25 12.80 12.50 115,385.34 92,463.47 12.50 10.50 70,218.76 57,694.43 5.50 6.20 93,713.04 85,294.42 42.10 43.90 43,994.54 38,157.21 75.50 80.00     4,694.60 21.09 4473.59 22.41 22.41104 2008-12 274,149.01 216,671.36 16.00 16.00 97,573.90 79,889.10 2.30 1.40 58,502.01 47,749.73 -3.50 -4.20 62,088.94 55,886.47 -19.70 -20.30 24,071.41 20,424.06 -19.50 -20.10 3,876.92 -0.22 3654.56 -0.27 -0.27274 2007-12 235,881.61 186,454.97 21.10 22.90 94,590.20 78,135.98 19.40 21.30 58,235.88 47,767.25 4.30 5.00 76,192.70 69,103.79 23.20 24.70 29,603.87 25,323.48 42.10 46.50 3,885.39 14.86 3664.56 16.99 16.9873 2006-12 194,090.16 151,498.71 17.10 17.60 78,131.35 63,567.50 15.10 15.60 53,019.36 43,247.46 -0.60 -0.80 60,628.14 54,392.13 12.20 13.10 20,509.68 17,038.01 18.50 20.20 3,382.86 4.35 3132.44 4.08 4.082371 2005-12 164,444.97 127,747.65 17.10 18.10 66,840.04 54,033.97 10.60 12.70 48,792.52 40,004.49 14.90 15.40 55,769.14 49,794.52 15.70 15.70 18,080.30 14,986.05 30.00 36.90     3,241.99 19.46 3009.58 18.09 18.08706 2004-12 140,451.39 108,196.54 19.20 18.20 60,413.86 47,949.01 10.40 9.30 42,464.87 34,677.18 2.10 2.30 38,231.64 33,819.89 13.70 13.90 10,375.71 8,619.37 30.00 31.30 2,713.91 14.09 2548.61 15.23 15.23382 2003-12 116,907.46 91,018.09 26.00 24.40 54,319.10 43,676.44 28.50 39,509.75 32,200.47 21.50 17.20 32,247.24 28,502.47 29.10 28.90 7,670.90 6,303.85 34.10 33.80 2,378.78 3.82 2211.69 3.86 3.857032 2002-12 92,756.99 72,077.20 20.10 24.40 42,259.85 34,224.10 17.60 32,522.81 26,612.78 19.10 17.20 24,969.29 22,117.18 20.20 19.60 5,721.22 4,709.96 23.70 23.10 2,291.30 2.93 2129.55 2.98 2.982671 2001-12 77,213.49 59,766.14 21.50 24.40 35,946.03 29,293.31 27.20 27,303.16 22,544.24 18.60 17.20 20,779.24 18,498.79 22.30 20.80 4,625.72 3,825.31 29.40 29.40 2,226.13 5.85 2067.87 5.96 5.957532 2000-12 63,529.00 48,304.93 15.30 17.70 28,259.03 23,335.33     23,027.90 18,948.45 16.40 17.00 16,984.10 15,136.89 26.90 27.40 3,572.00 2,954.12 30.10 35.00     2,103.14 5.98 1951.60 5.92 5.919184 1999-12 55,105.10 41,028.39 13.30 21,632.71 18,049.36 19,783.60 16,194.58 28.00 13,380.60 11,878.93 25.20 24.90 2,655.33 2,188.74 23.90 24.30 1,984.46 -0.64 1842.54 1998-12 48,621.50 34,291.89 11.50 15,314.50 15,454.20 12,480.16 11.60 10,689.20 9,510.94 34.80 38.10 2,134.89 36.50 1,997.24 #DIV/0! 指标名称 房地产开发投资总额:其他 新开工房屋面积:其他房屋 竣工房屋面积:其他房屋 销售房屋面积:其他房屋 销售房屋金额:其他房屋 销售房屋价格:其他房屋 房地产开发投资总额:其他:同比增长 新开工房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 竣工房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋金额:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋价格:其他房屋:同比增长 房地产开发投资完成额:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:住宅:累计值 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业地产 商品房新开工面积:累计值 商品房新开工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房新开工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房新开工面积:商业营业用房:累计值   商品房竣工面积:累计值 商品房竣工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房竣工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房竣工面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房销售面积:累计值 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计值 商业地产销售面积 商品房销售额:累计值 商品房销售额:住宅:累计值 商业地产销售额 亿元 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 亿元 元/平方米 % % 亿元 亿元 亿元 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 亿元 2012 9751.3859 18,644.89 7,839.94 2,823.21 1,215.60 4,305.73 30.11 3.91 23.91 -6.80 -6.17 0.68 1.26 71804 49374 12678.61 177,333.62 130,695.42 5,986.46 22,006.85 99,424.96 79,043.20 2,315.36 10,226.45 111,303.65 98,467.51 10,012.93 64,455.79 53,467.18 9,773.01 2011 7494.55 17,943.77 6,327.23 3,029.21 1,295.50 4,276.69 10.58 36.49 24.91 21.46 26.69 4.31 1.17 61739.8 44308 9913.746 190,082.70 146,034.57 5,360.94 20,670.72 89,244.25 71,692.33 2,179.42 9,045.27 109,945.56 97,030.26 9,886.09 59,119.09 48,619.39 9,204.20 2010 6777.39 13,146.91 5,065.41 2,494.09 1,022.56 4,099.93 33.67 67.52 15.06 48.19 65.43 11.63 1.15 48259.4 34026.23 7405.391 163,776.67 129,467.93 3,678.01 17,460.98 75,960.97 61,215.72 1,748.44 7,931.40 104,349.11 93,051.56 8,803.46 52,478.72 43,953.33 7,502.83 2009 5070.25 7,847.84 4,402.42 1,683.03 618.13 3,672.72 19.56 22.65 21.76 35.76 52.13 12.06 1.22 36241.81 25613.69 5549.618 115,385.34 92,463.47 2,813.57 12,352.16 70,218.76 57,694.43 1,606.55 6,515.36 93,713.04 85,294.42 6,735.59 43,994.54 38,157.21 5,219.20 2008 4240.67 6,398.62 3,615.73 1,239.73 406.31 3,277.41 22.47 19.14 19.18 14.60 11.08 -3.07 1.12 31203.19 22440.87 4311.788 97,573.90 79,889.10 2,284.20 9,321.15 58,502.01 47,749.73 1,647.97 5,488.58 62,088.94 55,886.47 4,962.74 24,071.41 20,424.06 3,241.04 2007 3462.73 5,370.70 3,033.89 1,081.78 365.77 3,381.19 38.37 26.64 19.66 30.21 38.43 6.31 1.08 25288.84 18005.42 3812.51 94,590.20 78,135.98 2,136.57 8,979.87 58,235.88 47,767.25 1,511.34 5,923.40 76,192.70 69,103.79 6,007.13 29,603.87 25,323.48 3,914.62 2006 2502.57 4,240.86 2,535.52 830.78 264.23 3,180.51 11.44 20.04 13.23 2.89 12.07 8.92 0.98 19422.92 13638.41 3268.54 78,131.35 63,567.50 2,108.90 8,315.83 53,019.36 43,247.46 1,335.78 5,900.60 60,628.14 54,392.13 5,405.23 20,509.68 17,038.01 3,207.44 2005 2245.72 3,532.79 2,239.27 807.46 235.78 2,920.02 15.44 18.96 23.91 30.53 64.33 25.90 1.03 15909.2 10860.93 2739.49 66,840.04 54,033.97 1,669.75 7,702.01 48,792.52 40,004.49 1,258.96 5,289.80 55,769.14 49,794.52 5,167.16 18,080.30 14,986.05 2,858.47 2004 1945.38 2,969.85 1,807.14 618.62 143.48 2,319.36 24.19 10.82 5.19 36.58 39.06 1.82 1.10 13158.3 8836.95 2375.92 60,413.86 47,949.01 1,704.19 7,790.81 42,464.87 34,677.18 1,034.60 4,945.95 38,231.64 33,819.89 3,793.13 10,375.71 8,619.37 1,612.86 2003 1566.43 2,679.96 1,717.90 452.94 103.18 2,278.01 25.46 41.02 25.58 37.44 49.64 8.88 0.97 10153.8 6776.69 1786.12 54,319.10 43,676.44 1,425.06 6,597.69 39,509.75 32,200.47 1,050.55 4,540.83 32,247.24 28,502.47 3,291.83 7,670.90 6,303.85 1,263.87 2002 1248.55 1,900.45 1,367.94 329.56 68.95 2,092.18 17.32 12.91 26.60 38.24 53.46 11.01 1.02 7790.9 5227.76 1307.18 42,259.85 34,224.10 1,288.28 4,822.59 32,522.81 26,612.78 971.45 3,570.64 24,969.29 22,117.18 2,522.55 5,721.22 4,709.96 942.31 2001 1064.19 1,683.08 1,080.51 238.40 44.93 1,884.65 33.99 34.87 19.18 19.80 14.44 -4.47 1.10 6344.1 4216.68 1038.8 35,946.03 29,293.31 1,085.07 3,952.74   27,303.16 22,544.24 891.10 2,787.31 20,779.24 18,498.79 2,042.05 4,625.72 3,825.31 755.48 2000 794.23 1,247.91 906.65 199.00 39.26 1,972.86 4984.1 3311.98 840.4 28,259.03 23,335.33 866.19 2,910.97 23,027.90 18,948.45 873.69 2,299.11 16,984.10 15,136.89 1,648.21 3,572.00 2,954.12 578.62     指标名称 房地产开发投资总额:其他 新开工房屋面积:其他房屋 竣工房屋面积:其他房屋 销售房屋面积:其他房屋 销售房屋金额:其他房屋 销售房屋价格:其他房屋 房地产开发投资总额:其他:同比增长 新开工房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 竣工房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋面积:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋金额:其他房屋:同比增长 销售房屋价格:其他房屋:同比增长 房地产开发投资完成额:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:住宅:累计值 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业地产 商品房新开工面积:累计值 商品房新开工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房新开工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房新开工面积:商业营业用房:累计值   商品房竣工面积:累计值 商品房竣工面积:住宅:累计值 商品房竣工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房竣工面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房销售面积:累计值 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计值 商业地产销售面积 商品房销售额:累计值 商品房销售额:住宅:累计值 商业地产销售额 亿元 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 亿元 元/平方米 % % 亿元 亿元 亿元 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 万平方米 亿元 2012 9751.3859 18,644.89 7,839.94 2,823.21 1,215.60 4,305.73 30.11 3.91 23.91 -6.80 -6.17 0.68 1.26 71804 49374 12678.61 177,333.62 130,695.42 5,986.46 22,006.85 99,424.96 79,043.20 2,315.36 10,226.45 111,303.65 98,467.51 10,012.93 64,455.79 53,467.18 9,773.01 2011 7494.55 17,943.77 6,327.23 3,029.21 1,295.50 4,276.69 10.58 36.49 24.91 21.46 26.69 4.31 1.17 61739.8 44308 9913.746 190,082.70 146,034.57 5,360.94 20,670.72 89,244.25 71,692.33 2,179.42 9,045.27 109,945.56 97,030.26 9,886.09 59,119.09 48,619.39 9,204.20 2010 6777.39 13,146.91 5,065.41 2,494.09 1,022.56 4,099.93 33.67 67.52 15.06 48.19 65.43 11.63 1.15 48259.4 34026.23 7405.391 163,776.67 129,467.93 3,678.01 17,460.98 75,960.97 61,215.72 1,748.44 7,931.40 104,349.11 93,051.56 8,803.46 52,478.72 43,953.33 7,502.83 2009 5070.25 7,847.84 4,402.42 1,683.03 618.13 3,672.72 19.56 22.65 21.76 35.76 52.13 12.06 1.22 36241.81 25613.69 5549.618 115,385.34 92,463.47 2,813.57 12,352.16 70,218.76 57,694.43 1,606.55 6,515.36 93,713.04 85,294.42 6,735.59 43,994.54 38,157.21 5,219.20 2008 4240.67 6,398.62 3,615.73 1,239.73 406.31 3,277.41 22.47 19.14 19.18 14.60 11.08 -3.07 1.12 31203.19 22440.87 4311.788 97,573.90 79,889.10 2,284.20 9,321.15 58,502.01 47,749.73 1,647.97 5,488.58 62,088.94 55,886.47 4,962.74 24,071.41 20,424.06 3,241.04 2007 3462.73 5,370.70 3,033.89 1,081.78 365.77 3,381.19 38.37 26.64 19.66 30.21 38.43 6.31 1.08 25288.84 18005.42 3812.51 94,590.20 78,135.98 2,136.57 8,979.87 58,235.88 47,767.25 1,511.34 5,923.40 76,192.70 69,103.79 6,007.13 29,603.87 25,323.48 3,914.62 2006 2502.57 4,240.86 2,535.52 830.78 264.23 3,180.51 11.44 20.04 13.23 2.89 12.07 8.92 0.98 19422.92 13638.41 3268.54 78,131.35 63,567.50 2,108.90 8,315.83 53,019.36 43,247.46 1,335.78 5,900.60 60,628.14 54,392.13 5,405.23 20,509.68 17,038.01 3,207.44 2005 2245.72 3,532.79 2,239.27 807.46 235.78 2,920.02 15.44 18.96 23.91 30.53 64.33 25.90 1.03 15909.2 10860.93 2739.49 66,840.04 54,033.97 1,669.75 7,702.01 48,792.52 40,004.49 1,258.96 5,289.80 55,769.14 49,794.52 5,167.16 18,080.30 14,986.05 2,858.47 2004 1945.38 2,969.85 1,807.14 618.62 143.48 2,319.36 24.19 10.82 5.19 36.58 39.06 1.82 1.10 13158.3 8836.95 2375.92 60,413.86 47,949.01 1,704.19 7,790.81 42,464.87 34,677.18 1,034.60 4,945.95 38,231.64 33,819.89 3,793.13 10,375.71 8,619.37 1,612.86 2003 1566.43 2,679.96 1,717.90 452.94 103.18 2,278.01 25.46 41.02 25.58 37.44 49.64 8.88 0.97 10153.8 6776.69 1786.12 54,319.10 43,676.44 1,425.06 6,597.69 39,509.75 32,200.47 1,050.55 4,540.83 32,247.24 28,502.47 3,291.83 7,670.90 6,303.85 1,263.87 2002 1248.55 1,900.45 1,367.94 329.56 68.95 2,092.18 17.32 12.91 26.60 38.24 53.46 11.01 1.02 7790.9 5227.76 1307.18 42,259.85 34,224.10 1,288.28 4,822.59 32,522.81 26,612.78 971.45 3,570.64 24,969.29 22,117.18 2,522.55 5,721.22 4,709.96 942.31 2001 1064.19 1,683.08 1,080.51 238.40 44.93 1,884.65 33.99 34.87 19.18 19.80 14.44 -4.47 1.10 6344.1 4216.68 1038.8 35,946.03 29,293.31 1,085.07 3,952.74   27,303.16 22,544.24 891.10 2,787.31 20,779.24 18,498.79 2,042.05 4,625.72 3,825.31 755.48 2000 794.23 1,247.91 906.65 199.00 39.26 1,972.86 4984.1 3311.98 840.4 28,259.03 23,335.33 866.19 2,910.97 23,027.90 18,948.45 873.69 2,299.11 16,984.10 15,136.89 1,648.21 3,572.00 2,954.12 578.62    
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分享 F 2012 1-commercial
cutelxh 2013-5-21 20:10
新开工面积:办公楼 与全国数的差值 398.47 447.08 356.21 239.74 103.01 331.19 -0.09 335.81 272.80 364.91 286.43 332.49 147.51 地区合计数 36722.38 33926.68 22659.86 14936.10 13682.77 13445.71 12336.20 9881.91 9839.31 7933.58 7469.17 6054.96 4610.65 指标名称 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2012增减 房屋 36323.91 33479.60 22303.65 14696.36 13579.76 13114.52 12336.29 9546.10 9566.51 7568.67 7182.74 5722.47 4463.14 8.50 北京 2711.83 2795.23 1039.33 1317.77 1140.62 1575.27 1814.77 1334.41 1368.39 1093.75 920.47 665.13 214.06 -2.98 天津 661.55 911.53 1250.05 385.02 289.86 263.62 429.59 395.03 136.54 167.30 236.53 77.28 62.45 -27.42 河北 1441.75 1798.67 940.32 519.25 205.42 220.25 276.69 243.11 163.13 157.24 222.29 164.73 66.77 -19.84 山西 446.39 155.47 347.54 190.94 159.58 78.83 83.34 386.73 276.60 197.73 112.22 47.40 181.40 187.13 内蒙 1356.71 2083.05 2183.94 935.23 618.79 565.00 391.11 152.32 151.84 184.11 157.25 104.55 69.58 -34.87 辽宁 1545.24 727.84 1277.41 872.38 452.42 631.39 278.15 310.71 282.39 321.68 274.40 424.89 366.92 112.30 吉林 266.28 325.92 204.33 221.40 249.01 237.89 154.96 221.37 178.34 196.73 182.95 78.17 230.25 -18.30 黑龙 482.85 536.74 252.66 218.36 127.61 172.34 53.58 215.12 232.04 153.86 270.38 232.49 137.32 -10.04 上海 1890.28 1433.99 806.25 1039.63 1332.69 1233.71 871.89 950.62 375.44 463.11 218.30 137.53 131.16 31.82 江苏 2722.32 3809.40 2557.78 1086.11 1409.30 1132.00 899.61 845.24 1019.99 524.14 642.52 300.46 413.07 -28.54 浙江 2898.51 3791.46 2670.94 1914.58 1835.09 1445.96 1482.94 593.44 1059.01 868.54 516.41 616.99 620.22 -23.55 安徽 1639.58 1086.02 1126.16 814.51 472.65 633.22 421.12 156.89 192.23 214.10 223.29 196.80 217.86 50.97 福建 1455.68 1811.31 866.63 376.55 298.96 275.80 347.19 207.16 133.10 182.89 284.32 156.61 150.58 -19.63 江西 1044.27 346.54 256.39 113.31 127.81 89.31 84.74 123.91 125.76 104.05 96.36 69.87 40.08 201.34 山东 2562.92 2737.49 947.60 760.12 690.43 1076.22 1014.60 706.26 363.77 323.46 335.40 284.20 169.68 -6.38 河南 1880.96 1632.78 784.83 442.31 531.56 776.88 739.08 291.04 251.99 204.36 92.07 57.41 89.75 15.20 湖北 1508.35 658.13 630.91 380.17 317.16 277.84 129.83 226.85 240.23 121.39 102.81 239.66 129.92 129.19 湖南 1246.66 505.27 386.72 247.69 271.15 372.06 218.86 251.19 180.21 260.41 136.37 110.81 69.27 146.73 广东 1836.05 1984.57 1288.11 724.77 1163.91 646.25 735.17 674.78 1202.93 441.22 883.85 652.04 403.06 -7.48 广西 538.64 659.36 381.59 139.50 121.80 271.24 76.47 145.37 64.10 72.45 33.29 52.63 29.95 -18.31 海南 138.86 87.94 132.13 55.19 54.60 41.94 50.27 15.37 15.92 11.19 32.96 18.90 2.94 57.90 重庆 940.22 941.06 263.06 204.09 158.72 395.07 280.56 265.91 258.58 343.09 263.31 279.64 142.07 -0.09 四川 1630.81 815.25 739.49 452.88 305.56 258.87 371.23 241.69 284.15 392.82 288.63 277.38 190.23 100.04 贵州 1045.65 126.61 217.78 169.40 147.22 77.18 307.51 187.90 231.85 114.03 174.66 129.11 71.29 725.86 云南 1619.07 876.96 311.07 376.24 253.19 99.60 161.04 127.01 96.39 48.19 32.41 47.77 109.79 84.62 西藏 4.54 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.70 26.14 13.50 0.90 0.77 0.50 3.93 5.01 0.00 724.73 陕西 456.95 461.10 221.86 400.55 526.94 241.72 260.41 267.03 327.80 260.46 184.04 186.31 61.97 -0.90 甘肃 153.94 153.18 90.37 55.47 20.87 49.78 107.46 52.24 72.88 28.90 36.75 61.21 68.36 0.49 青海 36.57 85.29 141.31 28.92 19.44 65.75 62.69 73.69 93.15 141.82 110.14 100.97 57.11 -57.13 宁夏 256.58 310.28 170.52 228.54 131.02 149.44 137.78 105.34 169.85 98.78 142.09 104.72 72.25 -17.31 新疆 302.40 277.68 172.24 264.67 248.69 65.14 80.06 113.28 289.94 241.28 258.77 174.29 41.29 8.90 住宅 办公楼 商业营业用房 其他 办公楼 商业营业用房 房地产业   指标名称 房地产开发投资完成额:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:住宅:累计值 城镇固定资产投资完成额:办公楼:累计值 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业营业用房:累计值 其他 城镇固定资产投资完成额:办公楼:累计同比 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业营业用房:累计同比 房地产开发投资完成额:累计值 房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比增长 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业地产 城镇固定资产投资完成额:商业地产 :同比增速 商业地产对房地产投资额的贡献率 商业地产销售面积 商业地产销售面积:同比增速 商业地产销售价格 商业地产销售价格:同比增速 商业地产竣工面积 商业地产竣工面积:同比 商业地产销竣比 销售价格:办公楼 销售价格:商业营业用房 销售价格:办公楼:同比 销售价格:商业营业用房:同比 商业地产销售额 商业地产销售额:同比   商品房施工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房施工面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房施工面积:办公楼:累计同比 商品房施工面积:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房新开工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房新开工面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房新开工面积:办公楼:累计同比 商品房新开工面积:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房竣工面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房竣工面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房竣工面积:办公楼:累计同比 商品房竣工面积:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房销售面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房销售面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房销售面积:办公楼:累计同比 商品房销售面积:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房销售额:办公楼:累计值 商品房销售额:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房销售额:办公楼:累计同比 商品房销售额:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房待售面积:办公楼:累计值 商品房待售面积:商业营业用房:累计值 商品房待售面积:办公楼:累计同比 商品房待售面积:商业营业用房:累计同比 商品房销售面积累计值 商品房销售面积累计同比 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计值 商品房销售面积:住宅:累计同比 单位 亿元 亿元 亿元 亿元 亿元 % % 亿元 % 亿元 % % 万平方米 % 元/平方米 % 元/平方米 元/平方米 % %   万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % 亿元 亿元 % % 万平方米 万平方米 % % (万平) (%) 2012 71,803.79 49,374.21 3,366.61 9,312.00 9,750.96 31.60 25.40 71,803.79 16.20 12,678.61 27.89 27.47 10,012.93 1.28 9,760.39 4.83 12541.81 11.73 0.80 12306.41 9020.91 -1.23 6.03 9,773.01 6.18   19,434.17 65,813.91 21.50 17.60 5,986.46 22,006.85 10.90 6.20 2,315.36 10,226.45 2.10 8.00 2,253.65 7,759.28 12.40 -1.40 2,773.43 6,999.57 12.20 4.80 1,555.00 7,130.00 23.00 17.00 111,303.65 1.80 ######## 2.00 2011 61,739.78 44,308.43 2,543.53 7,370.21 7,517.61 40.70 30.50 61,739.78 27.90 9,913.75 33.87 18.62 9,886.09 12.30 9,310.25 9.24 11224.69 15.96 0.88 12459.49 8507.61 9.12 9.98 9,204.20 22.68   15,949.87 56,278.18 31.30 26.10 5,360.94 20,670.72 46.20 18.30 2,179.42 9,045.27 20.00 9.20 2,007.90 7,878.19 6.20 12.60 2,501.74 6,702.46 16.10 23.70 1,230.00 5,895.00 10.80 11.90   109,945.56 4.90 ######## 3.90 2010 48,267.07 34,038.14 1,806.55 5,598.84 6,823.54 31.20 33.90 48,267.07 33.20 7,405.39 33.44 15.42 8,803.46 30.70 8,522.59 9.99 9679.84 19.18 0.91 11417.69 7735.39 6.80 12.17 7,502.83 43.75   12,139.78 44,615.72 21.40 29.20 3,678.01 17,460.98 28.60 40.60 1,748.44 7,931.40 5.80 16.20 1,882.00 6,921.46 21.90 29.90 2,148.81 5,354.02 31.20 46.30   104,349.11 10.10 ######## 8.00 2009 36,231.71 25,618.74 1,378.04 4,171.58 5,063.35 18.10 24.40 36,231.71 16.10 5,549.62 28.71 21.90 6,735.59 35.72 7,748.69 18.65 8121.91 13.81 0.83 10690.81 6896.13 24.38 16.19 5,219.20 61.03   9,984.75 34,439.58 4.20 13.00 2,813.57 12,352.16 13.80 23.00 1,606.55 6,515.36 -12.00 1.60 1,513.30 5,222.29 30.80 24.20 1,617.84 3,601.36 66.90 45.50 8,685.00 21.89   94,755.00 43.60 ######## 43.90 2008 30,579.82 22,081.26 1,111.58 3,200.21 4,186.77 7.40 14.90 30,579.82 20.90 4,311.79 13.10 9.42 4,962.74 -17.39 6,530.75 0.22 7136.55 -4.01 0.70 8595.35 5935.46 -1.21 2.00 3,241.04 -17.21   9,190.53 28,895.35 10.40 11.40 2,284.20 9,321.15 6.70 2.50 1,647.97 5,488.58 6.70 -10.00 1,110.67 3,852.07 -24.20 -17.10 954.66 2,286.38 -24.80 -14.70 7,125.00   62,088.94 -19.70 ######## -20.30 2007 25,279.65 18,010.25 1,036.95 2,775.56 3,456.89 11.70 17.90 25,279.65 30.20 3,812.51 16.64 9.22 6,007.13 11.14 6,516.62 9.82 7434.74 2.74 0.81 8700.65 5819.05 6.69 9.87 3,914.62 22.05   8,292.51 25,937.69 12.10 9.40 2,136.57 8,979.87 0.10 6.00 1,511.34 5,923.40 8.40 -5.80 1,454.19 4,552.94 18.10 5.00 1,265.24 2,649.38 27.60 16.40 合计   76,192.70 23.20 ######## 24.70 2006 19,382.46 13,611.62 923.16 2,345.38 2,502.30 21.00 15.00 19,382.46 21.80 3,268.54 19.31 14.60 5,405.23 4.61 5,933.96 7.27 7236.38 10.50 0.75 8155.29 5296.34 16.59 3.17 3,207.44 12.21   7,366.33 23,485.68 11.30 12.20 2,108.90 8,315.83 26.20 8.30 1,335.78 5,900.60 -5.70 0.20 1,205.50 4,199.73 4.30 3.80 983.12 2,224.32 18.10 7.80   60,628.14 12.20 ######## 13.10 2005 15,759.30 10,768.19 739.62 1,999.87 2,251.62 13.40 16.00 15,759.30 19.80 2,739.49 15.30 13.98 5,167.16 36.22 5,531.99 30.10 6548.76 9.50 0.79 6994.97 5133.81 26.43 29.45 2,858.47 77.23   6,587.08 20,825.17 10.10 13.80 1,669.75 7,702.01 -2.00 -1.10 1,258.96 5,289.80 21.70 7.00 1,105.48 4,061.68 4.60 21.60 773.28 2,085.19 5.60 32.50   55,769.14 15.30 ######## 15.70 2004 13,158.25 8,836.95 652.20 1,723.72 1,945.38 28.30 31.40 13,158.25 28.10 2,375.92 33.02 19.32 3,793.13 15.23 4,252.06 10.75 5980.55 6.96 0.63 5532.59 3965.89 28.87 6.07 1,612.86 27.61   5,982.43 18,293.23 17.40 23.50 1,704.19 7,790.81 16.10 16.20 1,034.60 4,945.95 -4.00 2.00 692.84 3,100.29 11.70 8.70 383.32 1,229.54 45.60 17.70   38,231.64 13.70 ######## 13.90 2003 10,106.12 6,782.41 508.64 1,277.48 1,537.59 34.20 37.60 10,106.12 29.70 1,786.12 36.64 20.21 3,291.83 30.50 3,839.41 2.78 5591.38 23.10 0.59 4293.19 3738.98 -1.40 4.46 1,263.87 34.12   5,064.76 14,564.33 1,425.06 6,597.69 10.62 36.81 1,050.55 4,540.83 8.14 27.17 596.55 2,695.28 17.38 33.81 256.11 1,007.76 15.74 39.77   32,247.24 29.10 ######## 28.90 2002 7,736.42 5,267.35 379.04 928.14 1,161.89 19.20 28.80 7,736.42 21.90 1,307.18 25.84 18.00 2,522.55 23.53 3,735.55 0.97 4542.09 23.48 0.56 4354.02 3579.50 -7.73 6.06 942.31 24.73   4,416.40 11,251.80 1,288.28 4,822.59 18.73 22.01 971.45 3,570.64 9.02 28.10 508.22 2,014.33 3.01 30.07 221.28 721.03 -4.96 37.95   24,969.27 20.20 ######## 19.60 2001 6,245.48 4,278.74 318.00 720.80 927.94 8.70 31.60 6,245.48 25.30 1,038.80 23.61 14.76 2,042.05 23.90 3,699.62 5.38 3678.41 15.94 0.56 4718.97 3374.87 6.34 4.77 755.48 30.57   4,224.78 9,175.47     1,085.07 3,952.74 25.27 35.79 891.10 2,787.31 1.99 21.23 493.37 1,548.68 25.81 23.30 232.82 522.66 33.79 29.18           20,779.24 22.30 ######## 20.80 2000 4,901.73 3,318.74 292.60 547.80 742.59 -12.92 19.29 4,901.73 19.50 840.40 5.68 5.07 1,648.21 21.87 3,510.60 -10.35 3172.80 12.09 0.52 4437.59 3221.18 -23.25 0.30 578.62 9.26   4,127.85 7,583.25 866.19 2,910.97 34.67 36.37 873.69 2,299.11 -4.72 20.14 392.15 1,256.06 5.84 27.91 174.02 404.60 -18.77 28.30   16,984.14 26.90 ######## 27.40 1999 4,010.17 2,637.63 336.00 459.20 577.34 -24.40 2.10 4,010.17 11.00 795.20 -11.09 -23.02 1,352.48   3,915.70   2830.63 0.48 5782.14 3211.43     529.59     4,559.64 6,539.79 643.21 2,134.65 917.00 1,913.63 370.52 981.96     214.24 315.35 1998 3,579.58 2,117.94 444.55 449.79 567.30 -5.40 0.30 3,579.58 12.60 894.34   24.27           2 001-2012 3,106.40               25.54     15.55   9.22                                       9.07 12.54     14.81 15.78     25.26 26.60                     商品房销售面积:住宅:累计值 98,467.51 97,030.26 93,051.56 85,294.42 55,886.47 69,103.79 54,392.13 49,794.52 33,819.89 28,502.47 22,117.18 18,498.79 15,136.89 商业地产投资额 亿元 增速 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2012 2011 2010 2009 1 海南 997.81 483.70 289.52 147.74 158.70 106.29 67.07 95.97 -6.91 2 山西 1401.21 846.16 707.25 457.34 430.60 65.60 19.64 54.64 6.21 3 云南 3596.68 2205.65 1365.15 1073.59 767.26 63.07 61.57 27.16 39.93 4 宁夏 760.73 467.20 332.33 191.86 151.88 62.83 40.58 73.22 26.32 5 新疆 819.01 512.95 340.96 235.23 175.13 59.67 50.44 44.95 34.31 6 贵州 2921.56 1886.05 1175.69 665.90 636.76 54.90 60.42 76.56 4.58 7 甘肃 837.24 544.80 409.95 319.50 244.68 53.68 32.89 28.31 30.58 8 湖南 3618.72 2362.47 1858.33 1424.12 1376.38 53.18 27.13 30.49 3.47 9 安徽 6665.62 4388.47 3618.62 2745.39 1984.79 51.89 21.27 31.81 38.32 10 黑龙江 1770.51 1237.78 853.54 569.37 540.32 43.04 45.02 49.91 5.38 11 江西 1628.38 1142.12 889.86 689.46 547.27 42.57 28.35 29.07 25.98 12 河南 4746.54 3443.30 2328.51 1660.82 1395.55 37.85 47.88 40.20 19.01 13 辽宁 8339.19 6093.54 5305.13 3898.53 2375.69 36.85 14.86 36.08 64.10 14 福建 6401.62 4745.79 4674.42 2216.88 2125.80 34.89 1.53 110.86 4.28 15 浙江 10669.25 7943.65 5502.70 3878.08 3307.28 34.31 44.36 41.89 17.26 16 陕西 1893.73 1411.45 1290.31 876.17 927.64 34.17 9.39 47.27 -5.55 17 山东 7156.36 5369.14 4414.66 3369.50 2351.99 33.29 21.62 31.02 43.26 18 重庆 4490.71 3410.82 2738.59 2200.12 1846.98 31.66 24.55 24.47 19.12 19 四川 6436.78 4910.32 3844.83 2362.10 2726.99 31.09 27.71 62.77 -13.38 20 江苏 11350.10 8672.12 6908.92 5301.42 4257.89 30.88 25.52 30.32 24.51 21 北京 8648.10 7057.37 8198.30 8487.18 5203.97 22.54 -13.92 -3.40 63.09 22 广东 9120.93 7590.60 5966.00 4391.30 4784.97 20.16 27.23 35.86 -8.23 23 上海 5379.75 4648.80 4488.18 3589.04 3191.34 15.72 3.58 25.05 12.46 24 湖北 4820.21 4184.43 3161.12 1940.73 1304.74 15.19 32.37 62.88 48.74 25 西藏 9.62 8.40 11.48 28.99 12.77 14.54 -26.83 -60.40 127.07 26 广西 2877.14 2557.35 1931.79 1325.77 1136.52 12.50 32.38 45.71 16.65 27 天津 2588.36 2519.16 1984.48 1493.79 1246.54 2.75 26.94 32.85 19.83 28 河北 4566.87 4620.93 2631.39 1679.78 1088.65 -1.17 75.61 56.65 54.30 29 吉林 1551.25 1608.65 1058.35 893.48 660.18 -3.57 52.00 18.45 35.34 30 青海 308.15 323.67 218.14 97.65 53.10 -4.80 48.38 123.40 83.88 31 内蒙 2430.46 3055.72 1808.01 1304.08 939.10 -20.46 69.01 38.64 38.87        
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分享 【2012金川诗歌一月诗展】岔路口
金川诗歌 2013-5-16 17:03
【2012金川诗歌一月诗展】岔路口
岔路口 时光,我认识你 你清晰的面孔就像远处的积雪 可我无法靠近 你真实 就像被寂静举起的树木 纯真被盲目的风嫉妒 我从你身上飘零 时光,你身上的一缕香甜 像一朵浮云 在白昼,被群鸟撕碎 在夜晚,月色侵入,霉烂而沉醉 在生死的一条缝隙里 被两颗星星 沿着两个相反的方向切割 时光,我认识你 可你认识一个人多么不容易 二〇一二年一月九日 写罢《人性与信息经济学》 结,终于解开 鸟儿的鸣叫进来 冬日微光也进来了 敞开着 人,你也进来吧 你的苦恼,你的和悦 回望走过的路 那掩着的门背后 那未被阳光照亮过的,是什么 此刻在阳光下舞蹈 那未见过月的脸 此刻正举着 像被月色拨弄着物事 而还有许多门 就在眼前,抑或背后、左右 忽远忽近,若有若无 叫人感到诧异,媚惑 仿佛有一些舞动的小手 她们如若敲击 又当心那仅仅是一张纸 当心,在不经意间 会被雪花般的指 轻轻击碎 二〇一二年一月九日 假想过后 我又沉浸在一些预想的快乐中 像一只傻猫 我走着,但不知道那是爬行 我以为 我一直在舞蹈 被一双隐秘的目光羡慕着 我走在秋天 像一只傻猫,但不知道什么是傻 青纱帐里的沙沙声 我认为那是新房里,喜娘在喘息 她在呼唤回来 我以为爱情就像满地的野花 是她喊累了睡熟 许多只蚱蜢跳跃 我以为,我可以脱下我的皮毛 做他们柔软的墓地 可我感到痛 无数支针刺,扎入金黄的瞳孔 他们喝干鲜红的血 我流干眼泪 二〇一二年一月九日 傍晚 喜欢在林间大道行走 天光微白 搭在稀疏的树冠 景象仿佛新婚前的悸动 星星像冻裂的果实 那种怜爱 圆月如初现的大巢 快乐在那里甜甜地孵化 四周灯光亮起 仿佛时间的无数分叉 向无数果实温馨的内核走去 每声祝福都能中彩 唯有我与树木 还在丈量寒冷与寂静的风度 嘴巴塞着一座城市的孤独 眼眶堆满积雪 二〇一二年一月九日 冬夜 就这样站下 多好呵,像一株空空的树 落叶散尽 又结束了一次傍晚时分的沐浴 多好呵 眼睛像夜空自由自在,敞开 扩散,像穹顶沉入心底 撒几粒多少有些疲倦的星星 一座灯火闪烁的城市 像一座驿站,不期而至的样子 陌生的面孔 彼此打量,不在于善,不在于恶 多像我又轻易地,想起树林那边 穿过不远的积雪 那些被风轻轻摇晃着的铃铛 塞着冰冷的哑默 二〇一二年一月十一日 一张白纸 与人类为邻 无路可走的世界还在徘徊中 依然无事可做 四周的风光越来越触目惊心 悲悯的桥梁若隐若现 也有青藤环绕 树冠之后都有一个家园 而这道绝壁之侧 常常被幽暗的呼声惊醒 向深渊之中不断投下橄榄枝 蜀葵,白鸽,响尾蛇 日复一日 一些无缘无故的回声 像鱼儿被最亮的浪花举起,又消逝 沿着时光日渐抬高的缄默 日月星辰变得憔悴 人,不得不再度走回自己 这张空白纸上 不得不再度插满滴血的矛枪 而在更远的路途 最锐利的那一支,正在飞回 二〇一二年一月十一日
个人分类: 金川诗歌|0 个评论
分享 Visualizing The Dead-Weight On The Global Economic Recovery
insight 2013-4-26 10:48
Visualizing The Dead-Weight On The Global Economic Recovery Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2013 18:48 -0400 Credit Suisse recovery Unemployment Youth unemployment has become a worrying phenomenon with 74.6 million young people unemployed globally in 2012. Rising youth unemployment has a detrimental effect on economic growth, political and social stability as well as on the ability to exploit the potential demographic dividend. Young people who are neither in employment nor in education or training (NEET) are a particular social concern. The economic and social impact of a growing number of NEET young people aged 15 - 24 has raised concerns as they represent a dead weight burden . 15% of US youth population is 'dead-weight' Source: Credit Suisse
个人分类: exceptional american|0 个评论
分享 2012民政年鉴
meizijane 2013-4-23 11:03
我有2012民政年鉴。我可以分享吗
0 个评论
分享 10 Things That Every American Should Know About The Federal Reserve
insight 2013-4-16 11:32
10 Things That Every American Should Know About The Federal Reserve By Michael, on February 8th, 2012 What would happen if the Federal Reserve was shut down permanently? That is a question that CNBC asked recently , but unfortunately most Americans don't really think about the Fed much. Most Americans are content with believing that the Federal Reserve is just another stuffy government agency that sets our interest rates and that is watching out for the best interests of the American people. But that is not the case at all. The truth is that the Federal Reserve is a private banking cartel that has been designed to systematically destroy the value of our currency, drain the wealth of the American public and enslave the federal government to perpetually expanding debt. During this election year, the economy is the number one issue that voters are concerned about. But instead of endlessly blaming both political parties, the truth is that most of the blame should be placed at the feet of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has more power over the performance of the U.S. economy than anyone else does. The Federal Reserve controls the money supply, the Federal Reserve sets the interest rates and the Federal Reserve hands out bailouts to the big banks that absolutely dwarf anything that Congress ever did. If the American people are ever going to learn what is really going on with our economy, then it is absolutely imperative that they get educated about the Federal Reserve. The following are 10 things that every American should know about the Federal Reserve.... #1 The Federal Reserve System Is A Privately Owned Banking Cartel The Federal Reserve is not a government agency. The truth is that it is a privately owned central bank. It is owned by the banks that are members of the Federal Reserve system. We do not know how much of the system each bank owns, because that has never been disclosed to the American people. The Federal Reserve openly admits that it is privately owned. When it was defending itselfagainst a Bloomberg request for information under the Freedom of Information Act, the Federal Reserve statedunequivocally in court that itwas "not an agency" of the federal government and therefore not subject to the Freedom of Information Act. In fact, if you want to find out that the Federal Reserve system is owned by the member banks, all you have to do is go to the Federal Reserve website .... The twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, which were established by Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system, are organized much like private corporations--possibly leading to some confusion about "ownership." For example, the Reserve Banks issue shares of stock to member banks. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. The stock may not be sold, traded, or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, 6 percent per year. Foreign governments and foreign banks do own significant ownership interests in the member banks that own the Federal Reserve system. So it would be accurate to say that the Federal Reserve is partially foreign-owned. But until the exact ownership shares of the Federal Reserve are revealed, we will never know to what extent the Fed is foreign-owned. #2 The Federal Reserve System Is A Perpetual Debt Machine As long as the Federal Reserve System exists, U.S. government debt will continue to go up and up and up. This runs contrary to the conventional wisdom that Democrats and Republicans would have us believe, but unfortunately it is true. The way our system works, whenever more money is created more debt is created as well. For example, whenever the U.S. government wants to spend more money than it takes in (which happens constantly), it has to go ask the Federal Reserve for it. The federal government gives U.S. Treasury bonds to the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve gives the U.S. government "Federal Reserve Notes" in return. Usually this is just done electronically. So where does the Federal Reserve get the Federal Reserve Notes? It just creates them out of thin air. Wouldn't you like to be able to create money out of thin air? Instead of issuing money directly, the U.S. government lets the Federal Reserve create it out of thin air and then the U.S. government borrows it. Talk about stupid. When this new debt is created, the amount of interest that the U.S. government will eventually pay on that debt is not also created. So where will that money come from? Well, eventually the U.S. government will have to go back to the Federal Reserve to get even more money to finance the ever expanding debt that it has gotten itself trapped into. It is a debt spiral that is designed to go on perpetually. You see, the reality is that the money supply is designed to constantly expand under the Federal Reserve system. That is why we have all become accustomed to thinking of inflation as "normal". So what does the Federal Reserve do with the U.S. Treasury bonds that it gets from the U.S. government? Well, it sells them off to others. There are lots of people out there that have made a ton of money by holding U.S. government debt. In fiscal 2011, the U.S. government paid out 454 billion dollars just in interest on the national debt. That is 454 billion dollars that was taken out of our pockets and put into the pockets of wealthy individuals and foreign governments around the globe. The truth is that our current debt-based monetary system was designed by greedy bankers that wanted to make enormous profits by using the Federal Reserve as a tool to create money out of thin air and lend it to the U.S. government at interest. And that plan is working quite well. Most Americans today don't understand how any of this works, but many prominent Americans in the past did understand it. For example, Thomas Edison was once quoted in the New York Times as saying the following.... That is to say, under the old way any time we wish to add to the national wealth we are compelled to add to the national debt. Now, that is what Henry Ford wants to prevent. He thinks it is stupid, and so do I, that for the loan of $30,000,000 of their own money the people of the United States should be compelled to pay $66,000,000 — that is what it amounts to, with interest. People who will not turn a shovelful of dirt nor contribute a pound of material will collect more money from the United States than will the people who supply the material and do the work. That is the terrible thing about interest. In all our great bond issues the interest is always greater than the principal. All of the great public works cost more than twice the actual cost, on that account. Under the present system of doing business we simply add 120 to 150 per cent, to the stated cost. But here is the point: If our nation can issue a dollar bond, it can issue a dollar bill. The element that makes the bond good makes the bill good. We should have listened to men like Edison and Ford. But we didn't. And so we pay the price. On July 1, 1914 (a few months after the Fed was created) the U.S. national debt was 2.9 billion dollars. Today, it is more than more than 5000 times larger. Yes, the perpetual debt machine is working quite well, and most Americans do not even realize what is happening. #3 The Federal Reserve Has Destroyed More Than 96% Of The Value Of The U.S. Dollar Did you know that the U.S. dollar has lost 96.2 percent of its value since 1900? Of course almost all of that decline has happened since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. Because the money supply is designed to expand constantly, it is guaranteed that all of our dollars will constantly lose value. Inflation is a "hidden tax" that continually robs us all of our wealth. The Federal Reserve always says that it is "committed" to controlling inflation, but that never seems to work out so well. And current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says that it is actually a good thing to have a little bit of inflation. He plans to try to keep the inflation rate at about 2 percent in the coming years. So what is so bad about 2 percent? That doesn't sound so bad, does it? Well, just consider the following excerpt from a recent Forbes article .... The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made it official: After its latest two day meeting, it announced its goal to devalue the dollar by 33% over the next 20 years. The debauch of the dollar will be even greater if the Fed exceeds its goal of a 2 percent per year increase in the price level. #4 The Federal Reserve Can Bail Out Whoever It Wants To With No Accountability The American people got so upset about the bailouts that Congress gave to the Wall Street banks and to the big automakers, but did you know that the biggest bailouts of all were given out by the Federal Reserve? Thanks to a very limited audit of the Federal Reserve that Congress approved a while back, we learned that the Fed made trillions of dollars in secret bailout loans to the big Wall Street banks during the last financial crisis. They even secretly loaned out hundreds of billions of dollars to foreign banks. According to the results of the limited Fed audit mentioned above, a total of $16.1 trillion in secret loans were made by the Federal Reserve between December 1, 2007 and July 21, 2010. The following is a list of loan recipients that was taken directly from page 131 of the audit report.... Citigroup - $2.513 trillion Morgan Stanley - $2.041 trillion Merrill Lynch - $1.949 trillion Bank of America - $1.344 trillion Barclays PLC - $868 billion Bear Sterns - $853 billion Goldman Sachs - $814 billion Royal Bank of Scotland - $541 billion JP Morgan Chase - $391 billion Deutsche Bank - $354 billion UBS - $287 billion Credit Suisse - $262 billion Lehman Brothers - $183 billion Bank of Scotland - $181 billion BNP Paribas - $175 billion Wells Fargo - $159 billion Dexia - $159 billion Wachovia - $142 billion Dresdner Bank - $135 billion Societe Generale - $124 billion "All Other Borrowers" - $2.639 trillion So why haven't we heard more about this? This is scandalous. In addition, it turns out that the Fed paid enormous sums of money to the big Wall Street banks to help "administer" these nearly interest-free loans.... Not only did the Federal Reserve give 16.1 trillion dollars in nearly interest-free loans to the "too big to fail" banks, the Fed also paid them over 600 million dollars to help run the emergency lending program. According to the GAO , the Federal Reserve shelled out an astounding $659.4 million in "fees" to the very financial institutions which caused the financial crisis in the first place. Does reading that make you angry? It should. #5 The Federal Reserve Is Paying Banks Not To Lend Money Did you know that the Federal Reserve is actually paying banks not to make loans? It is true. Section 128 of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 allows the Federal Reserve to pay interest on "excess reserves" that U.S. banks park at the Fed. So the banks can just send their cash to the Fed and watch the money come rolling in risk-free. So are many banks taking advantage of this? You tell me. Just check out the chart below. The amount of "excess reserves" parked at the Fed has gone from nearly nothing to about 1.5 trillion dollars since 2008.... But shouldn't the banks be lending the money to us so that we can start businesses and buy homes? You would think that is how it is supposed to work. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve is not working for us. The Federal Reserve is working for the big banks. Sadly, most Americans have no idea what is going on. Another example of this is the government debt carry trade. Here is how it works. The Federal Reserve lends gigantic piles of nearly interest-free cash to the big Wall Street banks, and in turn those banks use the money to buy up huge amounts of government debt. Since the return on government debt is higher, the banks are able to make large profits very easily and with very little risk. This scam was also explained in a recent article in the Guardian .... Consider this: we pretend that banks are private businesses that should be allowed to run their own affairs. But they are the biggest scroungers of public money of our time. Banks are lent vast sums of money by central banks at near-zero interest. They lend that money to us or back to the government at higher rates and rake in the difference by the billion. They don't even have to make clever investments to make huge profits. That is a pretty good little scam they have got going, wouldn't you say? #6 The Federal Reserve Creates Artificial Economic Bubbles That Are Extremely Damaging By allowing a centralized authority such as the Federal Reserve to dictate interest rates, it creates an environment where financial bubbles can be created very easily. Over the past several decades, we have seen bubble after bubble. Most of these have been the result of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates artificially low. If the free market had been setting interest rates all this time, things would have never gotten so far out of hand. For example, the housing crash would have never been so horrific if the Federal Reserve had not created such ideal conditions for a housing bubble in the first place. But we allow the Fed to continue to make the same mistakes. Right now, the Federal Reserve continues to set interest rates much, much lower than they should be. This is causing a tremendous misallocation of economic resources, and there will be massive consequences for that down the line. #7 The Federal Reserve System Is Dominated By The Big Wall Street Banks Even since it was created, the Federal Reserve system has been dominated by the big Wall Street banks. The following is from a previous article that I did about the Fed.... The New York representative is the only permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee, while other regional banks rotate in2 and 3 yearintervals. The former head of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner, is now U.S.Treasury Secretary. The truth is that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has always been the most important of the regionalFed banks by far, and in turn the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has always been dominated by Wall Street and the major New York banks. #8 It Is Not An Accident That We Saw The Personal Income Tax And The Federal Reserve System Both Come Into Existence In 1913 On February 3rd, 1913 the 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was ratified. Later that year, the United States Revenue Act of 1913 imposed a personal income tax on the American people and we have had one ever since. Without a personal income tax, it is hard to have a central bank. It takes a lot of money to finance all of the government debt that a central banking system creates. It is no accident that the 16th Amendment was ratified in 1913 and the Federal Reserve system was also created in 1913. They have a symbiotic relationship and they are designed to work together. We could fill Congress with people that are committed to ending this oppressive system, but so far we have chosen not to do that. So our children and our grandchildren will face a lifetime of debt slavery because of us. I am sure they will be thankful for that. #9 The Current Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, Has A Nightmarish Track Record Of Incompetence The mainstream media portrays Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as a brilliant economist, but is that really the case? Let's go to the videotape. The following is an extended excerpt from an article that I published previously .... ---------- In 2005 , Bernanke said that we shouldn't worry because housing prices had never declined on a nationwide basis before and he said that he believed that the U.S. would continue to experience close to "full employment".... "We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though." In 2005 , Bernanke also said that he believed that derivatives were perfectly safe and posed no danger to financial markets.... "With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly." In 2006 , Bernanke said that housing prices would probably keep rising.... "Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise." In 2007 , Bernanke insisted that there was not a problem with subprime mortgages.... "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency." In 2008 , Bernanke said that a recession was not coming.... "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." A few months before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed, Bernanke insisted that they were totally secure.... "The GSEs are adequately capitalized. They are in no danger of failing." For many more examples that demonstrate the absolutely nightmarish track record of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, please see the following articles.... *" Say What? 30 Ben Bernanke Quotes That Are So Stupid That You Won’t Know Whether To Laugh Or Cry " *" Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent? " But after being wrong over and over and over, Barack Obama still nominated Ben Bernanke for another term as Chairman of the Fed. ---------- #10 The Federal Reserve Has Become Way Too Powerful The Federal Reserve is the most undemocratic institution in America. The Federal Reserve has become so powerful that it is now known as "the fourth branch of government", but there are less checks and balances on the Fed than there are on the other three branches. The Federal Reserve runs the U.S. economy but it is not accountable to the American people. We can't vote those that run the Fed out of office if we do not like what they do. Yes, the president appoints those that run the Fed, but he also knows that if he does not tread lightly he won't get the money from the big Wall Street banks that he needs for his next election. Thankfully, there are a few members of Congress that are complaining about how much power the Fed has. For example, Ron Paul once told MSNBC that he believes that the Federal Reserve is now actually more powerful than Congress ..... "The regulations should be on the Federal Reserve. We should have transparency of the Federal Reserve. They can create trillions of dollars to bail out their friends, and we don’t even have any transparency of this. They’re more powerful than the Congress." As members of Congress such as Ron Paul have started to shed some light on the activities of the Federal Reserve, that has caused many in the mainstream media to come to the defense of the Fed. For example, a recent CNBC article entitled " If The Federal Reserve Is Abolished, What Then? " makes it sound like there is absolutely no other rational alternative to having the Federal Reserve run our economy. But this is not what our founders intended. The founders did not intend for a private banking cartel to issue our money and set our interest rates for us. According to Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution , the U.S. Congress has been given the responsibility to "coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures". So why is the Federal Reserve doing it? But the CNBC article mentioned above makes it sound like the sky would fall if control of the currency was handed back over to the American people. At one point, the article asks the following question.... "How would the U.S. economy then function? Something has to take its place, right?" No, the truth is that we don't need anyone to "manage" our economy. The U.S. Treasury could be in charge of issuing our currency and the free market could set our interest rates. We don't need to have a centrally-planned economy. We aren't China. And it goes against everything that our founders believed to be running up so much government debt. For example, Thomas Jefferson once declared that if he could add just one more amendment to the U.S. Constitution it would be a ban on all government borrowing .... I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing. Oh, how things would have been different if we had only listened to Thomas Jefferson. Please share this article with as many people as you can. These are things that every American should know about the Federal Reserve, and we need to educate the American people about the Fed while there is still time.
个人分类: fed|0 个评论
分享 2012浅谈中国经济
hjh1358 2013-2-25 16:17
2012 年的企业是多么的不容易,各行各业受到不同程度的影响,服装行业高的库存,煤炭行业产能过剩,钢铁行业由于成本上升,销售受阻而巨亏,房地产行业虽然有刚性需求但是受到房产政策影响消费预期降低严重影响了消费者心理。餐饮行业大型酒店业受波及,制造业由于采购成本上升,销售放缓利润空间不大,银行业受本轮经济危机的影响不良率上升,资本流动性降低,企业生存困难。 我国对外开放为了加快经济发展,刺激出口,降低了人民币的价值与美元挂钩,世纪之初的经济增长主要是出口拉动型,低廉的劳动成本,便宜的生产要素价格使得中国成为世界加工厂,世界范围都充斥着“ made in china ”的标志,但是外国的核心技术我们却没有得到多少。出口使中国的外汇储备增加,尤其是国际结算货币的美元,对应的必须要大量印发人民币对冲美元。出口增加加上人民币超发使得国内资本流动性加强,所以 21 世纪之初中国经济的发展很快,到 2012 年大宗消费品普遍比上世纪 90 年代末翻了 3 倍(上世纪九十年代的焙子还是 0.5 元现在 1.5 元,平均工资 1000 元左右现在是 3000 元左右)。 钱都有逐利性,国内的热钱多了就会冲进盈利最佳的行业,房地产首先得到青睐,高的回报率使房地产吸进了大量的市场闲散资金,钱多了也并非好事,一个行业的资本金过剩就会有泡沫存在,消费者都有买涨不买跌的消费心理,所以房价上涨的时候买的就多了,因为有买房需求的潜在购房者储蓄在银行的钱在随着房价上涨一天天贬值,这就造成疯狂买房的现象。加上银行的支持支付首付即可购房,杠杆被金融放大了好多倍,越买房源越少,需求大于供给产生了刚性需求,房价越来越高,房价的涨幅远远高于大宗消费或者工资的上涨指数,泡沫自然就产生了。开发商会以越高的价格购地建房,越会吸引热钱资金进入这个行业,蛋糕做大了就会有其相关产业也会参与分这块蛋糕,房地产相关的基础产业采购价格上涨,这种泡沫就会像“蝴蝶效应”一样引领其他行业价格指数上涨,最后的结果就是经济过热,通货膨胀显现, GDP 增长加速,整个这样的经济之下银行等金融机构成为最大的受益行业,盈利之巨让人咋舌。原因就是房地产的资金大部分来自于银行的在支持,在房地产火热的时候只要有地开发就能在银行拿到贷款,另外我们国家有购买期房的特点,这又一次刺激房地产开发,可以说房地产泡沫的滋生有着非常理想的条件,金融杠杆在房地产行业的效益远远超过一般行业,社会经济中的优胜劣汰就是这样,胜者越胜。 然而,当房价降的时候大家持观望态度(当然这一规律对刚性需求行业影响没有一般行业大),大家对房地产的高估都是心知肚明,但是那种购房疯狂与恐慌让大家头脑变热失去理智,这才是最可怕的,所以第三方的ZF就会出来制止这种畸形的发展,面对通货膨胀,经济泡沫严重,ZF就发挥其指导的行政干预,出台限购令,在经济上则发挥货币政策的作用,提高银行存款准备金率,减少货币的流通量给经济降温, 2012 年银行准备金率上调到历史高位 21.5% ,国家的货币政策收紧降低经济温度,至此双重紧箍咒下房地产的温度慢慢回归理性,由于还有刚性需求所以还没有完全给其毁灭性的打击,但是本来就脆弱的其他行业经济由于银根紧缩带来的麻烦却渐渐显现出来,除房地产的其他行业也被“一棒子打死”,难从银行得到金融支持,而其他的金融体系在我国还没有发展,或者是刚刚起步阶段,社会资金的流通性像根绳子一样勒着企业的脖子,企业生存出现困难,经营情况差的企业这轮危机基本死掉了。 想想这是为什么短短的几年我们国家的经济从高峰降到谷底,原因现在说什么的都有吧,或者说,不是哪一家之言可以说的清楚这个庞大的系统是哪里出了问题,几点粗浅的见解:中国的经济本来就没有形成一个适合自己国情的经济理论,每年的诺贝尔奖获得者都在研究世界经济,在研究人类社会经济关系,在研究某一个经济体。但是由于两种主义的差别造成这个鸿沟是没有桥的,只有靠我们自己总结经济史得到数据,建立经济模型才是适合我们的。经济的着陆在没有经济理论的指导下硬性着陆,产业链危机重重,金融不发达造成资本流动性单一死板,经济体抗风险能力不足,企业融资成本过高。这些问题我想经济学家也都认识到了,但是解决却不是经济学家能解决的,也不是ZF能解决的,解铃还须系铃人,要靠经济自己去解决,但是我们必须要知道经济规律是怎么运行的,价值规律上下要有两条人为划定的界限规范好了,经济自己有“驾驶员”,我们只需要在路两边的架设“护栏”就好了。这个护栏就是我们自己研究的经济规律,得到自己的经济理论去指导经济运行。
个人分类: 经济思考|0 个评论
分享 December 2012 Consumer Credit Growth Continues
insight 2013-2-18 16:29
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=33248 December 2012 Consumer Credit Growth Continues Posted on 7 February 2013 by Steven Hansen Written by Steven Hansen The headline said: Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent during the fourth quarter. Revolving credit was little changed, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9-1/2 percent. In December, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/4 percent. Econintersect takeaway from the data: December 2012 unadjusted consumer credit was 17.5% driven by student loans. In other words credit expansion was not due entirely to student loans this month. Using the Fed’s 7% seasonally adjusted annual rate, it means that total consumer credit expansion rate (ignoring student loans) is approximately 5.4%. The year-over-year consumer credit growth rate is 5.7%. Credit Card usage is growing only marginally, but the growth is in non-revolving loans (cars, boats, trailers, etc). The market expected consumer credit to expand $10.0 to $11.9 billion versus the seasonally adjusted expansion of $14.6 billion reported. Note that this consumer credit data series does not include mortgages. The Econintersect analysis is different than the Fed as follows: an effort is made to segregate student loans from consumer credit to see the underlying dynamics; the growth is expressed as year-over-year change, not one month’s change being projected as an annual change. The commonality between the Fed and Econintersect analysis is that consumer credit is now expanding whether one considers student loans or not. Econintersect does not believe the seasonal adjustment methods used in the headlines are accurately conveying the situation for a variety of reasons. This month student loans accounted for 17.5% of the total loans issued. Since the Great Recession, much of the increase in consumer credit is from student loans (A good background article was written by Frederick Sheehan). Note: If any reader of this post has issues with payments or default, some of your options available are addressed in this NYT article . The following graph shows the flow into consumer credit (including student loans) against the flow into student loans alone. Whenever the red line in the graph below is above the blue line – student loans account for all the credit growth. Flow of Funds into Consumer Credit – Total Consumer Credit (blue line) vs Student Loans (red line) Another way to view the effects of student loans on consumer credit is to view year-over-year growth in $ billions into total consumer credit (including student loans), and student loans alone. In short, student loans accounted for all consumer credit growth from 2009 to late 2011. Currently, the trend line rate of growth (blue line in graph below) is consistent with the pre-2007 rate of growth. Year-over-Year Growth in $ Billions – Total Consumer Credit (blue line) vs Student Loans (red line) And one final look at total consumer credit and the effect of student loans. The graph below removes student loans from total consumer credit outstanding. Total Consumer Credit Outstanding – Total Consumer Credit (blue line) vs Total Consumer Credit without Student Loans (red line) Econintersect spends time on this generally ignored data series because the USA is a consumer driven economy. One New Normal phenomenon has been the consumer shift from a credit towards a cash society – a quantum shift which changes the amount of consumption. Watching consumer credit provides confirmation that this New Normal shift continues. Year-over-Year Growth of Consumer Credit – Total (blue line), Revolving Credit (red line), and Non-Revolving (green line which includes student loans) The Federal Reserve reports credit divided between revolving and non-revolving. The majority of revolving credit is from credit cards, while non-revolving credit includes automobile loans, student loans, and all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, boats, trailers, or vacations. Comparison Revolving Credit Total (blue line) to Non-Revolving Credit Total (red line) Other Consumer Credit Data from Outside this Report: The question remains on the rate of write-downs of consumer loans. The following graph addresses this question: Net Charge-Offs on Consumer Credit The next graph addresses the question of loan losses by the banks: Bank Net Loan Losses – Percent of Total Loans This consumer credit release does not include mortgages. Here is what total household debt looks like. Please note that the mortgage data is not as current as the consumer credit data in this post. Total Household Debt (includes mortgages blue line), mortgages (red line), and Consumer Credit talked about in this post (green line) And just to make sure the data in the consumer credit report migrates to other reports, here is a graph from Z.1 Flow of Funds. Total Consumer Credit Outstanding from Flow of Funds Z.1 Caveats on the Use of Consumer Credit This data series does not include mortgages, and is not inflation adjusted. This whole series has undergone a major revision with the April 2012 Press Release : The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced that it has restructured the G.19 statistical release, Consumer Credit, to reflect regulatory filing changes for U.S.-chartered depository institutions and, in addition to the data currently reported on level of credit outstanding, the release will now report data on the flow of credit. The revised data will be made available with the release of the April report on Thursday, June 7. Savings institutions now file the same regulatory report as U.S.-chartered commercial banks. The U.S.-chartered commercial banks sector and the savings institution sector, which were previously shown separately, have been combined into a new sector called depository institutions. The previously published series for U.S.-chartered commercial banks and savings institutions will continue to be available as separate series in the Federal Reserve’s Data Download Program (DDP). The new flow data represent changes in the level of credit due to economic and financial activity, rather than breaks in the data series due to changes in methodology, source data, and other technical aspects of the estimation that affect the level of credit. Access to flow data allows users to calculate a growth rate for consumer credit that excludes such breaks. These changes will be accompanied by revisions to the estimates of outstanding consumer credit back to January 2006 and reflect improvements in methodology and a comprehensive review of the source data. The graph below shows consumer credit outstanding (this data series does not include mortgages) is slightly less than 23% of annualized consumer spending – down from a high of over 26% in the 2000s, but still above the averages before the mid 1990s. Ratio of Total Consumer Loans Outstanding to Consumer Spending To get a feel of inflation adjusted consumer credit, the following graph is inflation adjusted consumer credit using the CPI-U (less shelter) – this is expressing consumer credit in 1982 dollars. It is evident on an inflation adjusted basis, consumer credit is beginning to grow. Inflation Adjusted Consumer Credit Also, an interesting graphic showing the consumer’s ratio of liquid assets to total liabilities – I am not sure what can be implied except that it is evident that de-leveraging is well underway. As the average Joe Sixpack has little savings or other liquid assets, we can assume this graphic applies to the upper half of the USA population. Ratio of Consumer Liquid Assets to Total Consumer Liabilities Econintersect believes consumer credit levels are now in its historical channel from the 1990′s. Related Articles
个人分类: 美国消费者债务|0 个评论
分享 Introduction To The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III
insight 2013-2-18 11:29
Introduction To The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/27/2010 23:49 -0400 Afghanistan Australia Bank of America Bank of America Barclays Bond Budget Deficit Charles Schumer China Chris Dodd Citigroup Corruption dark pools Dark Pools Dean Baker DRC European Union Federal Reserve France Germany Global Economy goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Great Depression Greece Gross Domestic Product Guam Home Equity Housing Bubble Housing Market India International Monetary Fund Iran Iraq Israel Italy Japan Joseph Stiglitz KIM Martial Law Medicare Mexico Middle East National Debt national intelligence national security Netherlands New York Times Newspaper North Korea Norway Nuclear Power President Obama Reality recovery Reserve Currency Saudi Arabia Somalia Sovereign Debt Textron Trade War Trade Wars Turkey Unemployment Unemployment Benefits United Kingdom World Bank Yen The following is Part I to David DeGraw’s new book, “The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III.” This is the second installment to a new seven-part series that we will be posting throughout the next few weeks. You can read the introduction to the book here . To be notified via email of new postings from this series, subscribe here . Introduction to The Road Through 2012: Revolution or World War III 1: Economic Imperial Operations W hen we analyze our current crisis, focusing on the past few years of economic activity blinds us to the history and context that are vital to understanding the root cause. What we have been experiencing is not the result of an unforeseen economic crash that appeared out of the blue with the collapse of the housing market. It was certainly not brought on by people who bought homes they couldn’t afford. To frame this crisis around a debate on economic theory misses the point entirely. To even blame it on greedy bankers, while essentially accurate, also misses the most vital point. This crisis is the direct result of a strategic economic attack on the existence of a middle class and democracy worldwide. The stock market and economy have become weapons of mass oppression manipulated by an imperial banking cartel to impose order and exploit the masses. This crisis boldly represents the manifest evolution of the fascist spirit reasserting itself as the dominant ideology. Any fairytale notions of the United States being a democratic republic built on the rule of law have been utterly dispelled . As a nation we have been bred and conditioned to be dangerously nave to the darker forces which operate beyond the spotlight of the mainstream media. We have been blinded to what has been developing throughout the world. The economic imperialism that has now blown-back to the United States and Europe has been evolving for decades and can be directly traced back to the end of World War II, to the birth of the CIA, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. For those of us who have been paying attention to economic imperial operations that have been carried out against countries throughout the world, this looks all too familiar . The IMF and global bankers have conquered the second and third world, and they have now moved on to countries within the first world. Western European and American working classes are in the cross-hairs now. Economic and societal indicators, along with recent G-20 policy decisions , clearly demonstrate that they are carrying out and escalating systemic economic attacks throughout Europe and the US. To put it in technical terms, the United States government has been taken over by a financial terrorism network . They have bought off leaders of both the Republican and Democratic parties, and have established a dominant role in all three branches of government and throughout the mainstream media. They have complete control of the economy, stock market, US Treasury, Federal Reserve, World Bank, IMF and global banking system . Free market capitalism has collapsed; it’s now a rigged global market. This is an organized criminal operation , an imperial fascist movement that is determined to destroy our very way of life. A war has already been launched against us. In just the past three years we have lost an unprecedented amount of national wealth, trillions upon trillions of our tax dollars have been looted by Wall Street, endless wars, enormous subsidies for the most profitable global corporations and tax cuts for the richest one percent of the population. Never before, in the history of civilization, has a nation been so thoroughly and systematically fleeced. This is all the result of a coordinated economic attack by a global banking cartel against 99 percent of the US population. Until we can become politically intelligent enough to see this as the reality and root cause of our current crisis, we will not be able to overcome it, our living standards will continue to decline and we will all be sentenced to a slow death in a neo-feudal system built on debt slavery. The average American is horribly nave to just how depraved, corrupt and addicted to power this banking cartel is. Through their control and domination of the mass media, they have kept their crimes against humanity out of public consciousness. We have been shielded from the global devastation and death toll that they have already wrought. The result is an unsuspecting population of confused and passive people having their future ripped out from under them, right before their eyes, without any organized defense or resistance. II: Violence on the Horizon As the entrenched global banking cartel continues to control domestic political policy, the next phase of this crisis will inevitably feature an escalation into mass violence. As the Army War College stated, the Pentagon is preparing for “violent, strategic dislocation inside the United States” and “widespread civil violence” due to “purposeful domestic resistance.” In clear signs of what is to come , rioting and violence as a result of economic turmoil has already been experienced in many countries throughout the world. However, civil unrest has not yet occurred within the United States. There are many theories as to why there has been so little resistance from the US population thus far, and several factors play into it. The most significant factor is that social safety net programs have been vital in preventing people from resorting to extreme measures. Currently, a stunning number of Americans, 52 million , are receiving life-sustaining assistance from government “anti-poverty” programs, such as food stamps, unemployment benefits, Medicaid and Medicare. This has already stretched a social safety net system that is designed to handle significantly less people to its limit. This safety net system has now been drained of all reserve resources over the past two years, and is obviously not sustainable under current economic and political conditions. As social safety net programs have been drained of reserves, many US citizens have also been burning through their personal savings. Over the past few years the percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has dramatically increased. In 2007, 43 percent of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck. In 2008, the percentage increased to 49 percent. In 2009, the number skyrocketed up to 61 percent . The most recent number for 2010 has exploded to a shocking 77 percent . This means in our nation of 310 million citizens, 239 million Americans are one setback away from economic ruin and millions more are in danger of having to rely on government assistance for survival. So as this prolonged economic crisis continues, these safety nets, that are already overwhelmed, will have to support more and more people and will inevitably break down. As we have just begun to see, budget cuts to vital social programs on the state and federal levels will become increasingly severe right at the point when many more Americans will need them. As the 52 million Americans currently surviving in “anti-poverty” programs are gradually cutoff from life-sustaining government assistance - and as the 239 million people now living paycheck to paycheck, buried in debt, stressing out and working their asses off just to make ends meet realize that things are not going to be getting any better — and are only going to get worse — social unrest and outbursts of violence will eventually start to bubble up to the surface and the ruling elite will no longer be able to maintain power by simply deceiving the masses via mainstream media propaganda. When an overwhelming majority of the population directly feels negative effects upon their own living standards, the propaganda system collapses. The illusion comes crashing down and people will finally start to get wise to the horrific scam that is being played on them. When they wake from their media-induced American dream state and realize that they are now living in a nightmare, as crazy as it may sound, people will actually stop voting against their own interests. The apathetic majority, that doesn’t vote, will become active in the interests of self-preservation as their survival instincts kick in. The handwriting is on the wall and the ruling class has to realize that by the time 2012 rolls around, their puppet politicians will be voted out of office, or their heads will roll, quite literally. Looking at this from a purely technocratic sociological viewpoint, avoiding mass riots and violence while this many desperate people lose life-sustaining programs appears to be an impossible task, and given our current economic and political environment this seems inevitable. In an article titled “ A Planet at the Brink: Will Economic Brushfires Prove Too Virulent to Contain? ” Michael T. Klare explained: “As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants, and ethnic minorities. (The list could, in the future, prove long and unnerving.) If the present economic disaster turns into what President Obama has referred to as a ‘lost decade,’ the result could be a global landscape filled with economically-fueled upheavals.” Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski expressed his fears : “I was worrying about it because we’re going to have millions and millions of unemployed, people really facing dire straits. And we’re going to be having that for some period of time before things hopefully improve. And at the same time there is public awareness of this extraordinary wealth that was transferred to a few individuals at levels without historical precedent in America…. And you sort of say to yourself: what’s going to happen in this society when these people are without jobs, when their families hurt, when they lose their homes, and so forth?” Outbreaks of civil unrest are something that the US government and Pentagon have been expecting, and preparing for. Former US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee stating that the greatest threat facing the US is not terrorism, it’s the current economic crisis: “The primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications. The crisis has been ongoing…. Of course, all of us recall the dramatic political consequences wrought by the economic turmoil of the 1920s and 1930s in Europe, the instability, and high levels of violent extremism.” Intelligence Committee Vice-Chair Christopher Bond said the economic crisis is now “the primary focus of the intelligence community.” As the Army War College has warned, the response to this coming phase of the economic crisis “might include use of military force against hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD would be, by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance.” Journalist Chris Hedges summed up this report: “The specter of social unrest was raised at the US Army War College in November in a monograph titled ‘Known Unknowns: Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development.’ … The ‘widespread civil violence,’ the document said, ‘would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security.’ ‘An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a long-secure domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,’ it went on…. In plain English, something bureaucrats and the military seem incapable of employing, this translates into the imposition of martial law and a de facto government being run out of the Department of Defense. They are considering it. So should you.” III: The IMF Riot, Step 3.5 The International Monetary Fund is predicting a “social explosion” due to this crisis. The IMF and World Bank have a long history of creating social upheaval. Leaked documents from within the World Bank refer to the next phase of the crisis as the “IMF riot.” Journalist Greg Palast obtained classified planning documents , which shed light on the covert economic imperial operations, Structural Adjustment Programs, that the IMF, World Bank and US Treasury have used in the past as a playbook for destabilizing and conquering foreign nations. In the UK newspaper The Observer , Palast interviewed Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who was a former World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, turned whistleblower . They revealed the four-step IMF plan. Though the strategy is slightly modified based on the nation being attacked, here in the United States we are currently about to enter a variation of step-three, which is currently being phased in throughout Europe. This step inevitably leads to a significant portion of the population losing the ability to obtain basic necessities essential for survival. Once this happens, riots inevitably occur, or as they put it: step 3.5 is executed. Here is how Palast and Stiglitz summed it up: “At this point, according to Stiglitz, the IMF drags the gasping nation to Step Three: market-based pricing - a fancy term for raising prices on food, water and… gas. This leads, predictably, to Step-Three-and-a-Half: what Stiglitz calls ‘the IMF riot’. The IMF riot is painfully predictable. When a nation is, ‘down and out, squeezes the last drop of blood out of them. They turn up the heat until, finally, the whole cauldron blows up,’… What Stiglitz did not know is that Newsnight obtained several documents from inside the World Bank. In one, last year’s Interim Country Assistance Strategy for Ecuador , the Bank several times suggests - with cold accuracy - that the plans could be expected to spark ’social unrest’.” To sum up, the interlocked IMF and World Bank set the conditions for ’social unrest’ and then once it occurs they move to step-four, which is the ultimate in disaster capitalism - they profit off the misery and the civilian population is then buried in a neo-feudal system of severe debt and poverty. So what is the IMF saying right now about our situation in Europe and the US? A recent Telegraph report reads: “IMF fears ’social explosion’ from world jobs crisis America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk ‘an explosion of social unrest’ unless they tread carefully, the International Monetary Fund has warned…. Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said the percentage of workers laid off for long stints has been rising with each downturn for decades but the figures have surged this time. ‘Long-term unemployment is alarmingly high: in the US, half the unemployed have been out of work for over six months, something we have not seen since the Great Depression,” he said…. The IMF said there may be a link between rising inequality within Western economies and deflating demand. Historians say the last time that the wealth gap reached such skewed extremes was in 1928-1929…” To show you how insidious the IMF is, they have recently launched a propaganda campaign to publicly decry deficit budget cuts and austerity measures. However, behind the scenes they have been forcing implementation of them and making their usual demands for cuts in vital social services and public spending, once those cuts are in place, the riots obviously follow. A recent Washington Post report states: “IMF issues broad call for US financial prudence Cut Social Security. Ditch the deduction for interest on home mortgages. Tax gasoline. The United States recently opened itself to the most intense scrutiny yet by the International Monetary Fund, and on Thursday was offered a bitter pill when the agency criticized some well-defended aspects of American culture — cheap fuel, subsidized housing, and a government retirement check…. “ Economist Dean Baker writes : “The central bankers and their accomplices at the IMF are dictating policies to democratically elected governments. Their agenda seems to be the same everywhere, cut back retirement benefits, reduce public support for health care, weaken unions and make ordinary workers take pay cuts.” In another report Baker adds : “The IMF program calls for cutbacks in government support for healthcare, pensions, and a wide range of other public services. It also calls for weakening labor market regulations that provide workers with job security. These recommendations are being given in a context where the world economy is suffering from a massive shortfall of demand. In other words, tens of millions of people are unemployed right now because there is not enough spending to keep them employed. The IMF’s program is almost certain to reduce spending further leading to even larger shortfalls in demand and more unemployment…. The IMF’s track record gives us reason not only to question the institution’s competence but also its motivations…. It is possible to see a similar pattern in the IMF’s latest set of policy recommendations to deal with the economic crisis.” In an article entitled, “ The Attack of the Real Black Helicopter Gang: The IMF Is Coming for Your Social Security ,” Baker continues: “Last week, the IMF told the United States that it needs to start getting its budget deficit down. It put cutting Social Security at the top of the steps that the country should take to achieve deficit reduction. This one is more than a bit outrageous for two reasons… While the IMF has no problem warning about retired workers getting too much in Social Security benefits, it apparently could not find its voice when the issue was the junk securities from Goldman Sachs or Citigroup that helped to fuel the housing bubble. The collapse of this bubble has not only sank the world economy, it also destroyed most of the savings of the near retirees for whom the IMF wants to cut Social Security. The vast majority of middle-income retirees have most of their wealth in their home equity. This home equity largely disappeared when the bubble burst.” So the IMF and global banking cartel are setting the conditions for social unrest and pushing for policies that will provoke it, and the Pentagon is preparing for a military response. As scary and unbelievable as all this may sound, we are on a fast track to this scenario. To Sum Up The American and global economy have already been looted and destroyed beyond repair. Most serious economists will admit that governments have already exhausted their capital by bailing out the banks and taking on unprecedented amounts of debt. The bailouts and recent return to high profits were just the final phase of the looting and a further consolidation of wealth on an unprecedented scale. There are still tens of trillions of dollars in debt hidden off-the-books and hundreds of trillions of dollars in dark pools of derivative liability. As the downturn continues, there is nothing left to revive the economy, the reserves and safety nets have already been stretched to their limits. We have a political and economic system that has been overrun by organized corruption and theft. Along with a mass media system that does not inform the populace and has effectively marginalized and isolated the majority of the population. Meanwhile, bubbling just under the surface is a very heavily armed population with a militia movement that has doubled in size over the past year, and their memberships continue to rapidly grow. Without the necessary general political intelligence or infrastructure to organize an effective mass non-violent movement, we are steamrolling toward spontaneous riots and outbursts of armed insurrection . In other words, as this economic downturn continues, what is now a passive and confused population will eventually devolve into an explosion of violence. Without a coherent non-violent movement to provide a viable alternative, without an outlet for severe and legitimate grievances that provides any chance for urgently affecting necessary political change, people will resort to violence as a last desperate act of vengeance and frustration. As time passes, these forgotten and isolated people, tens of millions of them, are quickly running out of options, and they will act out just as exploited people throughout the world always have. A man who sparked a revolution against the same banking cartel that has caused our crisis described the general attitude among a population that successfully rebelled through armed insurrection : “The people are weary of being oppressed, persecuted, exploited to the maximum. They are weary of the wretched selling of their labor-power day after day — faced with the fear of joining the enormous mass of unemployed — so that the greatest profit can be wrung from each human body, profit later squandered in the orgies of the masters of capital…. The feeling of revolt will grow stronger every day among the peoples subjected to various degrees of exploitation, and they will take up arms to gain by force the rights which reason alone has not won them.” Whatever your preconceptions of the man who said this may be, the voice of Che Guevara can now be clearly understood and related to by the overwhelming majority of people throughout the United States. Already, despite intensive propaganda, a stunning 80 percent of the US population believes that the government has failed them. The health care and financial reform bills have proven that our politicians are much more concerned about the short-sighted necessity to please the Economic Elite and raise campaign funds, than they are to understand the consequences of millions of Americans being forced into situations where their very survival is threatened. In a system where most elected officials are millionaires , this lack of perspective and understanding is ultimately what will lead to violence. Whether it is by arrogance or ignorance, perhaps both, it appears that our ruling class has suicidal tendencies. Unless they quickly recognize the growing threat posed by the dispossessed masses, our puppet politicians will themselves be in harm’s way. To show you how incredibly out of touch our current elected officials are, and to give you a clear indication of the prevailing attitude on Capitol Hill, a recent report from the Washington Post summed up their response to the recent news that a record number of Americans are now living in poverty: “The reluctance of political leaders on both sides of the aisle to directly confront the fact that growing numbers of Americans are slipping into poverty reflects a stubborn reality about the poor: They are not much of a political constituency. ‘We talk to many people on Capitol Hill who do believe poverty is important and is a blight on our nation, but we are also up against a general recognition that poor people don’t vote in great numbers. And they certainly aren’t going to be making campaign contributions. That definitely puts them behind many other people and interests when decisions are being made around here.’” And that sums up our current crisis, doesn’t it? The “poor people don’t vote” and they don’t make “campaign contributions.” As the Rage Against the Machine song goes, “The riot be the rhyme of the unheard.” IV: Bang the Drums of War How will this imperial fascist banking cartel respond to revolt? How will they maintain their power over an increasingly radicalized and hostile US population? In an attempt to stave off organized rebellion, they are already escalating their propaganda efforts in attempts to divide and distract the population. The tactics of their divide and conquer strategy are already on full display. Their mainstream media outlets have drastically increased coverage and focused attention on the rhetoric of division - using divisive issues like immigration, racism, religious bigotry, the “lazy unemployed,” “entitlement welfare” and gay marriage to divide and distract the population and prevent the masses from organizing against their true oppressors. This propaganda effort is only a temporary measure and will not suffice over the long-term. As the economy continues to collapse, the banking elite risk being overthrown as a result of their own greed. So they will then turn to physical, military-based violence to suppress populations that can no longer be controlled through propaganda and economic coercion. To paraphrase policy analyst Anatol Lieven, the classic strategy of an endangered oligarchy is to divert discontent among the population into nationalistic militarism. It is time, once again, to bang the drums of war and “whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor.” The source of the following quote is unknown, but the evident wisdom of it is something that we have already experienced firsthand in the recent past: “Beware the leader who bangs the drum of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor, for patriotism is indeed a double-edged sword. It both emboldens the blood, just as it narrows the mind. And when the drums of war have reached a fever pitch and the blood boils with hate and the mind has closed, the leader will have no need in seizing the rights of citizenry. Rather, the citizenry, infused with fear and blinded by patriotism, will offer up all of their rights unto the leader and gladly so.” An increased external threat will lead to an increased internal crackdown, which creates the pretext and conditions for a police state. As we have already seen in the first phase of the crackdown on civil liberties since the “War on Terror” began, when rioting and outbursts of armed insurrection begin within the US, external threats, real or imagined, will again be presented to justify extreme measures to suppress American citizens, and to further repress and divert internal dissent. Without an external enemy to rally the population against, the population will rally against the pre-existing internal powers. To put a slight twist on what Guy DeBord insightfully said back in 1988: the banking cartel “constructs its own inconceivable foe, terrorism. Its wish is to be judged by its enemies rather than by its results. The story of terrorism is written by the state and it is therefore highly instructive. But they must always know enough to convince them that, compared with terrorism, everything else must be acceptable, or in any case more rational and democratic.” V:The Chinese Scapegoat: Trade Currency Wars As millions of Americans and the majority of the global population look for vengeance on those responsible for severely declining living standards, the global banking cartel are not going to blame themselves, so they will deflect blame to China, a most convenient target. As a result of the crisis, national currencies are reeling, and the dollar, although currently one of the strongest paper currencies, is losing power as the crisis escalates. The IMF is working to replace the dollar as the world reserve currency and have begun discussing the possibility of making their Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) the new world reserve currency. A plummeting dollar will obviously put the American population in a severely desperate situation and the US-based banking cartel needs an excuse to divert political backlash. In China, the nation poised to replace the US as the preeminent global superpower, they have the perfect scapegoat. US-based global corporations have been shifting their business to China and off-shoring millions of jobs to the region due to their extremely low worker wages. So the American population is already pre-disposed to blaming China, as opposed to the companies who are exploiting the cheap labor. US politicians have been conveniently shifting blame for unemployment from themselves to China. Meanwhile, China also owns a significant portion of US national debt. US Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has recently declared that the national debt is the number one security threat. As Mullen stated , “Tax payers will be paying around $600 billion in interest on the national debt by 2012.” A significant portion of this interest will be going to China. As national governments attempt to survive in an increasingly hostile global economy, trade and currency wars will flare up and escalate. China is in perhaps the strongest position to win these conflicts. China and Japan have just engaged in a fierce currency battle. This currency battle is not to be underestimated. We are talking about the world’s second and third largest economies, after the United States. China has just overtaken Japan for the number two position. The militant rhetoric between these two nations is escalating. US politicians were quick to jump on the situation with calls to classify China as a “currency manipulator” and impose trade tariffs and penalties against them. International economic reporter Barry Grey recently summed up the situation in an article entitled, “Economic crisis threatens to unleash global currency wars:” “The eruption of currency exchange conflicts is bound up with mounting signs that the global economic crisis is systemic, rather than merely conjunctural, and growing fears that a genuine recovery is not in the offing. The European sovereign debt crisis and the weakening of US economic growth have led governments around the world to seek to secure a greater share of export markets. Under conditions of slowing growth and stagnant markets, this inevitably heightens trade conflicts between competing capitalist nations. In particular, the US and the European Union, spearheaded by the export power Germany, have aggressively pursued a cheap currency policy in order to gain a trade advantage against their rivals. Of the major economic powers, Japan has suffered the greatest damage from these policies, as investors and speculators have shifted from dollar- and euro-denominated investments to the yen, driving up the currency’s exchange rate. This has embittered relations between Japan and both the US and the EU. Japan has also denounced China for artificially keeping its currency low while bidding up the yen by increasing its purchases of Japanese government securities.” The global banking cartel’s leading puppets on Capitol Hill, Senators Chris Dodd, Chuck Schumer and Richard Shelby were all quick to attack China. Barry Grey continued : “In opening the Senate Banking Committee hearing, Chairman Christopher Dodd declared China a currency manipulator and said its ‘economic and trade policies’ present ‘roadblocks to our recovery.’ He went on to accuse China of stealing intellectual property, violating international trade agreements and dumping goods. He also denounced China for acquiring national resources in developing countries and building up its military. In his opening statement, the ranking Republican on the committee, Richard Shelby of Alabama, declared, ‘There is no question that China manipulates its currency in order to subsidize Chinese exports. The only question is: Why is the administration protecting China by refusing to designate it as a currency manipulator?’ Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said, ‘China’s currency manipulation is like a boot on the throat of our recovery and this administration refuses to try to get China to remove that boot.’” On top of all this, China has now overtaken the US as the world’s top energy consumer. Michael T. Klare reports on China’s new position of power : “The main point: by becoming the world’s leading energy consumer, China will also become an ever more dominant international actor and so set the pace in shaping our global future. Because energy is tied to so many aspects of the global economy, and because doubts are growing about the future availability of oil and other vital fuels, the decisions China makes regarding its energy portfolio will have far-reaching consequences. As the leading player in the global energy market, China will significantly determine not only the prices we will be paying for critical fuels but also the type of energy systems we will come to rely on. More importantly, China’s decisions on energy preferences will largely determine whether China and the United States can avoid becoming embroiled in a global struggle over imported oil and whether the world will escape catastrophic climate change.” China’s rise in power, mixed with the decline of western economies and the need for an external scapegoat sets up a global collision and inevitable confrontation between vying superpowers. Currency and trade wars will likely be a prelude to military confrontation. VI: Moves Upon the Grand Chessboard Based on early maneuvering it is evident that the masters of war have already drawn up sides. You may have missed it, but the US, Israel and the NATO Alliance have already put Iran, Lebanon, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Russia and China on notice. And the “withdrawals” from Iraq and the Af-Pak region are over-hyped. The occupation of these countries continues with no end in sight. In fact, they aren’t withdrawing as much as they are repositioning and shifting their forces, preparing for an escalation. In many ways the wars in Iraq and Af-Pak have only been the initial phase of a global attack, positioning forces and building massive military bases in pivotal geo-strategic locations. The operations in this region have essentially been a warm-up for much wider-ranging attacks against much stronger countries. While most of the US population is playing checkers, seeing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as one-off battles, the global banking cartel is playing chess, using these wars as only initial geo-strategic moves in a grand strategy toward total world domination. The intensity of military maneuvering presently occurring is alarming. Read through these recent news reports pulled from the AmpedStatus database, all from just the past few weeks , and let me know if you think I’m being extreme in foreseeing World War III: US to Fund Israeli Purchase of 20 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters US Waging ‘Shadow War’ in Dozen Countries S.Korea, US to stage massive joint war games US Military Offensive Against the July 2011 Af-Pak Timetable China PLA warns U.S. over fresh military drill in region The dangers of mounting US-China rivalry America’s Biggest Jobs Program — the U.S. Military US Arms ‘Bonanza’ in the Middle East Chinese Military: The Chinese People Won’t Stand for US Provocation Israel bulldozes Muslim graves in Jerusalem U.S. Supersizes Afghan Mega-Base US concerned other countries won’t respect Iraq’s ‘sovereignty’ US cuts $100m aid to Lebanon military U.S. won’t leave Iraq’s energy reserves untended US plans to sell F-15 jets to Saudi Arabia: report Blackwater: $220 million in new contracts Congress Spends Another $600 Million for Border Militarization U.S. worried by Hamid Karzai’s attempt to assert control over corruption probes Palestinians Denied Access to Water Gates: Iraq occupation could go on Petraeus beats the drums for endless war in Afghanistan Israel-US Increase Military Cooperation, Hold Biggest Joint Infantry Exercise Ever US, South Korea to Stage Another Military Exercise The Philippines: America’s New Launchpad for the Militarization of Southeast Asia U.S. and UK help train Kazakh troops in Russia’s backyard India to order large number of Javelin anti-tank missiles from US More US-NATO Military Bases: US Armed Forces in Central Asia US, Vietnam step up defence co-operation amid China concerns Speculation, debate over possible strike against Iran Russian Foreign Minister defends Iran nuclear power plant Colombia Court Blocks U.S. Military Accord Behind Regional Fight, Restricts Access to 7 Military Bases Venezuela says it will still send gasoline to Iran Venezuela threatens oil cut to US Iran: Venezuela Risks US Action Chávez and China: Challenging U.S. Interests | AEI Canada-Russia airspace ’showdown’ over Arctic Canada intercepted two Russian bombers near Arctic Japan, US plan naval drill near disputed islets: report China Restricts Exports of Rare Earth Minerals by 70pc,Tension with US escalating on several fronts Moscow warns US on issue of Israeli aerial strikes against Iran U.S. Global Strategy Targets Any Potential Challenger In Eurasia Obama Signs $600M Bill to Increase Militarization of US-Mexico Border Castro Warns of Nuclear War; Admiral Mullen Threatens Iran; US-Israel Vs. Iran-Hezbollah Doesn’t Appear Washington Wants Diplomatic Relations With Venezuela US talks Israel out of attacking Iran (for now) US stresses military role in Iraq, combat brigades under different name US Withdrawal Plan Marks “Privatization of Military Occupation” U.S. Military Intervention in Africa: The New Blueprint for Global Domination Ahmadinejad vows global response if Iran attacked Iran Opens Its First Nuclear Power Plant With Russian Help In Mideast Talks, Scant Hopes From the Beginning Iran hopes Russia’s next step will be delivery of S-300 missiles system: MP Iran working against Iraqi democracy: US general US combat brigades still in Iraq: report Karzai Stands Firm on Disbanding Private Security Iran’s new drone bomber is ‘messenger of death for the enemies of humanity’ Costa Rica: US Warships Cause Unease Israel Knesset Member Declares “We Are Preparing For War” Pakistanis Nabbed Taliban Boss to Stop Peace Talks Iran condemns possible US military action Iran Calls for Formation of Islamic Union to Start New World Order Four Israeli air strikes on Gaza Two Minutes to Midnight? The Bomb-Iran Debate From Hell The last chance to avoid a global trade war Al-Shabab vows ‘massive’ Somali war We Must Be Ready for War With China Mass Assassinations Lie at the Heart of America’s Military Strategy in the Muslim World US deplores ‘particularly outrageous’ Mogadishu carnage Philippines: Pawn In U.S. Encirclement of China Global Food Security and Sovereignty Threatened by “Land Grabs” in Poor Countries US to spend $1.3 billion on Afghanistan bases America’s top Marine challenges Obama’s Afghan pullout deadline CIA sees increased threat from al-Qaeda in Yemen U.S. Weighs Expanded Strikes in Yemen JSOC is Hiring Interrogators and Covert Operatives for ‘Special Access Programs’ Report: Kim Jong-Il Goes to China Canada Intercepts Russian Bombers — Again Kim Jong-il Visits China as Carter Waits in North Korea for Talks on Imprisoned American China Slams Pentagon Report Mexico Drug War Violence Rages, 28k Killed Tensions emerge between Rwanda and Western backers, China’s influence grows “Alarm bells” ring for Australian government over deepening China-East Timor ties US lawmaker urges France not to arm Lebanon army Chairman Of Joint Chiefs Of Staff Says National Debt Is Biggest Threat To National Security 18 nations wrap up mock terror exercise in Panama canal U.S. Bid To Control Whole Korean Peninsula Threat To China, Russia Canada Opens Arctic To NATO, Plans Massive Weapons Buildup China announces navy drill ahead of U.S. show of force Putin slams West for deceiving Russia Putin: U.S. Rearming Georgia Israel preparing to attack Syria: report China Deploys Troops In Pakistani Kashmir Israel Threatens War with Lebanon U.S. expands sanctions on North Korea Hamas targets Israeli-Palestinian talks by killing four Israelis US drones will patrol entire southern border Yellow Sea: U.S. Aegis Destroyers, S. Korean Subs In New Round of Drills Pentagon report underscores rising US-China tensions CIA Training Intelligence Agents For ‘State Sponsor Of Terrorism’ Sudan Tony Blair: military intervention in rogue regimes ‘more necessary than ever’ France steps up military intervention in Sahel, Western Africa German military report: Peak oil could lead to collapse of democracy U.S.-Venezuela Links Teeter on the Brink Pakistan’s Taliban threaten attacks in U.S., Europe EU austerity policies risk civil war in Greece, warns top German economist India to acquire advanced U.S.-made anti-ship missiles Middle East Loses Trillions As U.S. Strikes Record Arms Deals Is War About to Break Out on the Israeli-Lebanese Border? NATO asks for 2000 more troops for Afghanistan US ‘likely’ to keep troops in Iraq after 2011 U.S. Military Continues to Invest Hundreds of Millions in Iraq Bases UN nuke agency warns monitoring of Iran hampered Mideast talks a cover for US war preparations Land grabs, biofuel demand raise global food-security risk Anthrax War - the Malaysian Connection Defense Contractor Money Fueling Push to Militarize the US-Mexico Border US Government Report Argues for Police Force for American Interventions Overseas 730 F-35 planes to be sold to Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Turkey, Canada, Australia, Denmark, Norway U.S. to wrap up $2.5 billion Israel F-35 deal, Japan deal next Cheney’s Oily Dream - Redrawing the Map of the Middle East US and China at odds over North Korea Pentagon says USS George Washington to join military drills off Korean Peninsula Clinton: Mexico drug war bordering on ‘insurgency’ Land Grabs in Poor Countries Set to Increase India: troops on alert as border dispute with China heats up India: U.S. Completes Global Military Structure Report: US must deal with domestic radical problem Experts: Terrorism threat to U.S. now more homegrown New York Times Pushes Confrontation with Iran Largest US arms deal ever: Congress to be told of $60-billion US-Saudi arms deal, shoring up Arab allies against Iran China-South Africa deals highlight great-power rivalry in Africa German armed forces “reform” reflects growth of militarism IMF fears ’social explosion’ from world jobs crisis US embassy in Jordan warns of ‘imminent threat’ around Aqaba Record level of US airstrikes hit Afghan militants Hamas: Israeli aircraft strike Gaza as leaders talk peace Obama’s Generals Push War for Yemen US drones prowl Mexico China’s currency manipulation: Flipping off America Asia: Pentagon Revives And Expands Cold War Military Blocs U.S. And NATO Strengthen Positions Along Russia’s Southern Flank Russia vs Canada: Race for Oil-Rich Arctic Seabed Economic crisis threatens to unleash global currency wars Saudi king meets top US, Canadian counter-terror officials China, Energy, and Global Power Somalia, The Next Afghanistan? UN’s top envoy warns on growing insurgency Pentagon to funnel US arms to Yemen China-Japan Tensions Escalate, As China Breaks Off High Level Contacts, Japanese Flag Burned In Protest Gulf States Order $123 Billion of U.S. Weaponry to Counter Iran Massive US Military Buildup Planned for Guam So there we have it. The global Economic Elite have effectively looted and destroyed national economies worldwide, the propaganda system is quickly collapsing, and the masses are beginning to get restless. It’s time to move to the next phase of the attack. Preparations are already underway. We are on the road to World War III. VII: Resource Wars Add to this picture rapidly declining natural resources and an increasingly hostile and polluted environment with extreme weather events frequently pounding the globe. In the past decade the global corporate elite have already engaged in three major resource wars in Iraq, Af-Pak and Northern Africa. With a growing global population and an increasing demand for declining resources, we have already crossed a tipping point and are now in the ecological red . For the first time in human history, we are now consuming resources faster than nature can produce them. As developing countries like China and India attempt to live like western countries, there are simply not enough resources. The global economy is built on an unsustainable foundation. Instead of evolving and changing course, the entrenched banking power base is digging in further, and they run NATO, the private military complex and the US government. Based on the current policies that are in place, they have clearly already decided that they want to keep living business as usual and refuse to evolve and adapt to a rapidly changing environment. With this decision, they have effectively already decided to further escalate their oppression of the overwhelming majority of humanity, and this will lead to the death of literally hundreds of millions of people . The global banking cartel view the world’s limited resources as their property, and they have consistently proven that they have absolutely no hesitation in killing millions upon millions of people for these resources - just look at what they have already done in the recent past throughout Northern Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. In the years since Northern Africa was discovered to be “ the richest patch of earth ” due to large deposits of natural minerals that are needed to power computer technologies, over five million Africans, in just that region, have died as a result of war. The global elite have consistently used a strategy of arming and funding both sides of armed conflicts. While opposing populations kill each other off, they make off with their natural resources . When they confront a government that cannot be bribed or provoked into civil or regional war, they fund brutal death squads, attempt military coups and intimidate them by giving weapons to undemocratic neighboring regimes. If all that doesn’t work, they are declared a threat to national security and the US military, private contractors and NATO forces invade and occupy the country. These terrorist strategies are not limited to the Middle East and Africa, just ask our neighbors throughout Latin America about the School of the Americas. Contrary to popular belief, the horrendous torture techniques inflicted upon people in Abu Ghraib, Iraq were not an isolated incident. Many of those brutal torture techniques were developed over years by torturing innocent civilians throughout Latin America. The picture in Latin America today is one of inspiration. People throughout the region are rising up against the global corporate elite and claiming their rights and natural resources as their own, from Bolivia to Ecuador to Venezuela. This is another factor driving the “endangered oligarchy” into resorting to military desperation. The military coup in Honduras, the attempted coup in Venezuela, and the failed attempt to provoke Columbia and Venezuela into an armed conflict all clearly indicate where this situation is headed if the imperialist bankers get their way. The average American is dreadfully unaware of just how depraved these people are. The little regard they have for human life is beyond common comprehension. VIII: Private Military Complex The global elite have already used the “War on Terror” as a pretext to drastically increase military spending and build a massive private military and intelligence complex on the backs of the American taxpayer. According to an extensive report from the Washington Post, a stunning 1.2 million private contractors work in this complex. Most Americans are not aware that 69 percent of the soldiers deployed in our name are private contractors, and 80 percent of them are foreign nationals , meaning they are not even from the United States. Half of the people we have deployed in our name, who are funded by our tax dollars, are not even fighting for our country, they are fighting for a paycheck. Wars are a highly profitable racket, which gives an enormous incentive to keep them going. This is one of the reasons why the war in Afghanistan is now the longest war in US history. This system has led to a perpetual state of war. Military spending, although widely reported as being around $680 billion per year, is more accurately totaling over $1 Trillion per year. Of this staggering amount of annual spending, 25 percent of it goes unaccounted for, not counting the billions of our tax dollars lost to over-charging and all-out fraud . This private military complex has become so out of control that politicians are now forced to admit that they have no idea what is happening within it. As the Washington Post report revealed: “The top-secret world the government created in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has become so large, so unwieldy and so secretive that no one knows how much money it costs, how many people it employs, how many programs exist within it or exactly how many agencies do the same work. These are some of the findings of a two-year investigation by The Washington Post that discovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America hidden from public view and lacking in thorough oversight. After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine. The investigation’s other findings include: * Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States. * An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.” There are so many unaccountable cells and competing factions within this complex, any one of them could go rogue and launch an attack on the US soil and make it look like another “terrorist” organization or nation executed it. This may sound too conspiratorial to the casual observer, but it would be stunningly nave to think that in a massive complex like this, with so little oversight and accountability, given the huge sums of money at stake, that something tragic wouldn’t eventually occur. The implications are ominous, to say the least. We already had a proven act of internal domestic terror occur with the Anthrax attacks in 2001. It is not a stretch to think that any moves away from a state of permanent war, and any cut to military spending that would threaten the existence of many of the world’s largest and most powerful and profitable corporations, would result in an attack in hopes of inciting a military conflict. Former President Dwight Eisenhower’s warning against the “unwarranted influence” of the military industrial complex, and “the potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power” pales in comparison to the modern private military complex. While many of these companies currently rely on US tax dollars, they are not part of the government, they are global private entities with their own interests at heart, similar to the Federal Reserve banking system. In fact, when you peel back the layers, many of these private military companies are funded by the global banking cartel. When you understand the forces behind war, you must acknowledge the words of famed two-time Congressional Medal of Honor recipient US Brigadier General Smedley D. Butler. He accurately summed up the situation when he said: “I spent 33 years in the Marines, most of my time being a high-class muscle man for big business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer for Capitalism…. The general public shoulders the bill. This bill renders a horrible accounting. Newly placed gravestones, Mangled bodies. Shattered minds. Broken hearts and homes. Economic instability. Back-breaking taxation for generations and generations.” To give just two brief examples of how the banking cartel operates behind the scenes during wars, consider the following. The genocidal carnage in Northern Africa that killed over 5.4 million people was enthusiastically supported by the IMF and World Bank. In a news report entitled, “ The Business of War in the Democratic Republic of Congo ,” Dena Montague and Frida Berrigan explained: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank have knowingly contributed to the war effort. The international lending institutions praised both Rwanda and Uganda for increasing their gross domestic product (GDP), which resulted from the illegal mining of DRC resources. Although the IMF and World Bank were aware that the rise in GDP coincided with the DRC war… they nonetheless touted both nations as economic success stories….” In another example of grotesque profiting off massive levels of death, banking cartel members made a fortune on the production of cluster bombs. The Guardian revealed the details : “The deadly trade in cluster bombs is funded by the world’s biggest banks who have loaned or arranged finance worth $20bn to firms producing the controversial weapons, despite growing international efforts to ban them. HSBC… has profited more than any other institution from companies that manufacture cluster bombs. The British bank… has earned a total of 657.3m in fees arranging bonds and share offerings for Textron, which makes cluster munitions…. Campaigners maintain the deadly weapons can explode years after combat, killing or maiming innocent people…. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan and UK-based Barclays Bank are also named among the worst banks …. Goldman Sachs, the US bank which made 3.19bn proft in just three months, earned $588.82m for bank services and lent $250m to Alliant Techsystems and Textron.” To sum all of this up, the global banking cartel and private military complex are a runaway virus that demands a permanent state of warfare. They are intrinsically parasitic in nature, they have devolved into a fascist enterprise that survives and profits off of destruction. If they don’t get a war, they will create one in the interest of their own self preservation. As former CIA Station Chief John Stockwell once explained: “Enemies are necessary for the wheels of the US military machine to turn.” This insight can now be extended to the global banking cartel. Enemies are now necessary for the wheels of the global banking cartel to turn. Under the cover of the “War on Terror” they have launched a massive campaign of violence abroad and have been systematically looting our economy and stripping of us civil liberties at home. So as the US and global population becomes more radical, and as the environment becomes more hostile, with increasingly limited natural resources, in a desperate attempt to maintain power the global banking cartel will escalate from economic attacks to worldwide military-based assaults. This is the clear path we are on - the road to World War III. IX: History Repeats Itself “History Repeats Itself, Coiling Down Into the Future.” – Natural Born Killers This may very well be a case of history repeating itself. Not to oversimplify an extremely complex situation, but this is all too similar to the origins of World War II. The looting of the masses by an unaccountable Wall Street elite led to the Great Depression and set the conditions for WWII. Desperate and impoverished populations increasingly supported more and more extreme leaders. The conditions are now so ripe for world war that Noam Chomsky has convincingly compared modern-day America to Weimar Germany prior to the outbreak of WWII. Research the history of pre-war societies and you will see for yourself how our current political environment fits historical precedent like a glove. As mentioned before, the roots of our current crisis can be directly traced back to the aftermath of World War II. In the ruins of WWII grew global institutions like the IMF and World Bank. It also gave us the National Security Act and the CIA. All were central and pivotal in creating the crisis which we are now confronted with. After analyzing our current crisis and studying well-established historical precedents, one must conclude that creating a world war is the last card the global bankers have left to play, other than conceding power, and history has taught us that the ruling class never concedes power. Of course the one-tenth of one percent of the global population hoarding our wealth could give back a significant amount of the $39 Trillion they looted from us (not counting what they have hidden in offshore accounts). That would certainly go a long way to fixing the crisis they have caused, but again, the ruling class has never conceded power, no matter how excessive and ill-gotten their gains. So brace yourself… unless we significantly change our present course, we are on the road to World War III. 48702 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Guest Post: Why Everybody's Going To War in the Middle East Senator Jim DeMint: "U.S. Taxpayers Are Helping Finance Greek Bailout" China Shuns US And Invests Direct In Iran Oil-Fields Guest Post: Syria And Iran Dominos Lead To World War It's No Fun In Iran
个人分类: war|0 个评论
分享 10 Year Prices At 2.05%: Highest Yield Since March 2012
insight 2013-2-14 11:07
10 Year Prices At 2.05%: Highest Yield Since March 2012 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/13/2013 13:20 -0500 China High Yield It was well-known that today's 10 Year auction would price somewhere north of 2.00%, for the first 2%+ print since April of 2012, it just wasn't known where. Sure enough, moments ago the US Treasury priced $ 24 billion in 10 Year paper at a high yield of 2.046% (38.76% allotted at high), the highest since last March when we had a 2.076% 10 Year auction (and a carbon copy environment in which every pundit was screaming about a great rotation out of bonds), only to see the April and especially May auction tumble in yield when Europe once again became unfixed . What was notable about today's auction is that it tailed the When Issued modestly, which was bid 2.039% at 1 pm, implying a 0.7 bps tail. Also notable: the Bid to Cover dropped to 2.68, below January's 2.83, and well below the 12 month TTM of 2.99. Dealers took down 47.7% of the auction, Directs as has recently been the case ended up with a sizable 24.2%, while Indirects took only 28% of the auction, higher than the December 24.2%, yet worse than all other auctions going back all the way to April 2009. For those confused - don't be - we have been here in 2012, and 2011, and 2010, when risk assets were surging, and when yields were sliding, only to see a modest subsequent pick up in inflation, mostly in China, but certainly Europe, at which point the global liquidity glut ceased and the economy (if not the centrally-planned market) resumed on its downward glideslope. Average: 0 Your rating: None Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 3723 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: $35 Billion 3 Year Bond Auction Closes At 1.055% High Yield, 3.20 Bid To Cover, Highest PD Takedown Since May 2009 $33 Billion 3 Year Auction Comes At Record Low Yield Of 0.79%, Primary Dealer Takedown Highest Since May 2009 So Much For "Sell Bonds, Buy Stocks": Net Long Positions In 10 Year Treasury Highest Since March 2008 Dow Closes At Highest Since 2007 As High Yield Outperforms Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: March 1 - Eurozone Jobless Rate Highest Since October 1997
个人分类: treasury yield|0 个评论
分享 Cov-Lite Loans Hit Record In 2012 As January High Yield Covenant Protection Drop
insight 2013-2-13 09:51
Cov-Lite Loans Hit Record In 2012 As January High Yield Covenant Protection Drops To New Lows Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2013 15:45 -0500 Bond Covenants Federal Reserve High Yield LBO PE Multiple Those who traded credit in the frothy days of 2007 will recall that virtually every piece of new paper, including LBO debt, would come to market with the skimpiest of creditor protections, i.e., " covenant lite " which to many was an indication that money was literally being thrown without any discrimination in the last epic chase for yield, just as many were preparing for the imminent market backlash. Which they got shortly thereafter. Judging by the amount of covenant lite loans issued in 2012 as a percentage of total and compiled by Brandywine Management , which just surpassed the credit bubble frenzy of 2007 at more than 30% of total issuance, the bubble in credit is now well and truly back - a job well done Federal Reserve, just 5 years after the last credit bubble. And that's just for loans. A quick look at high yield bond space shows exactly the same, with Moody's reporting that the covenant quality of North American high-yield bonds continued to slide in January, and has hit a new low in the month of January . From Moody 's: Moody's Investors Service says in its second monthly report on its recently launched Covenant Quality Index (CQI). The index shows that covenant quality began to erode last July, at the same time that high-yield bond issuance started to climb. "Our three-month rolling average CQI deteriorated to 3.89 in January from 3.79 in December," says Alexander Dill, Head of Covenant Research at Moody's and author of "Bond Covenant Quality Resumes Slide." "The single-month score for January was 4.08, a marked deterioration from 3.55 in December and the previous low of 4.06 in November." The CQI uses a five-point scale, with 1.0 representing the strongest covenant protections and 5.0, the weakest. It peaked at 3.40 last July. But investors are not being compensated for accepting weaker covenants, Dill says. "While investors are taking on more covenant risk, average spreads to benchmark yields have tightened, fueled by strong demand and a record volume of issuance." Indeed, the average benchmark spread of bonds in Moody's High-Yield Covenant issued since October is close to the level seen in the first half of 2011, though the CQI shows much weaker covenants. Last month's decline can be explained largely by an increase in high-yield-lite issuance. High-yield lite covenant packages, which lack a restricted payments and/or a debt-incurrence covenant, accounted for 34.6% of issuance in January, compared with 3.2% in December. Continuing a recent trend to convert to high-yield lite from full high-yield covenant packages, Netflix, Lear and Crown Americas all issued bonds with high-yield lite packages last month. January also saw a higher percentage of bonds rated Ba, which generally have high-yield-lite covenant packages or full covenant packages with low covenant quality. These accounted for 58% of issuance in January, compared with the average of 27% since Moody's began tracking the CQI in January 2011. Luckily, just like in 2007, there is no risk at all of overheating: after all the Fed has a tremendous track record of intercepting bubbles in the credit, housing, and " stocks with an N/M PE multiple" asset classes. Surely they will deal with this one promptly and resolutely. Average: 4.75 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 4 votes)
个人分类: credit|0 个评论
分享 2013,2,10改变
lxnbr 2013-2-10 01:14
背着单词渡过2012最后一秒,迎来2013最新一秒。蛇年,脱胎换骨,要彻底改变。
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分享 黄山 2012 08 07
zjhstyle 2012-8-7 14:01
你跟他讲道理,他跟你耍流氓 你和他耍流氓,他和你讲法制; 你和他讲法制,他和你讲政治; 你和他讲政治,他跟你讲民意, 你跟他讲民意,他和你讲国情; 你和他讲国情,他和你讲接轨; 你和他讲接轨,他和你讲文化; 你和他讲文化,他和你讲孔子; 你和他讲孔子,他和你讲老子; 你和他讲老子,他给你装孙子! 看完,我不知该是什么的表情啊
1 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 七月末端任务列表(2012)
Modern-Algebra 2012-7-24 10:58
在接下来的几天,给自己安排多点任务,好好完成! 1、推荐系统的小论文,不要求搞得很大,但是得出一个成果; 2、sas应用统计实验教材,运行一遍,大概每天一到两个小实验; 3、短文本挖掘领域写一篇综述,至少在评论文本领域; 4、Excel以原始评论数据为基础,操作一遍数据透视图、数据透视表; 5、列出杨老师线性代数的课程大纲;并制作一章ppt; 6、sas的base模块把6张试卷做完;
个人分类: 计划及总结|0 个评论
分享 Gold investment statistics commentary
insight 2012-7-21 11:07
Gold investment statistics commentary Quarterly statistics commentary Q2 2012 Download this document (0.2 MB) from world gold council http://www.gold.org/investment/research/regular_reports/investment_statistics_commentary/ Overview This commentary summarises gold's price performance in various currencies, its volatility statistics and correlation to other assets in the quarter. It provides macroeconomic context to the investment statistics files published at the end of each quarter and highlights emerging themes relevant to gold's future development. Review: key macroeconomic themes during Q2 2012 Gold prices declined in most currencies during the second quarter with the exception of the euro, Swiss franc and Indian rupee, in part due to a strong US dollar. Despite a 3.8% decline in Q2 to US$1,598.50/oz on the London PM fix, gold was up 4.4% during the first half of the year. Volatility remained elevated amidst a busy event-risk period. However, gold generally outperformed risk assets. Global inflation eases but underlying trends supportive for gold: A substantial drop in energy and some agricultural commodities during the period has eased inflation pressures in many parts of the world and put downward pressure on gold prices. Reassessing "risk-free" assets: Even assets traditionally considered safe are under pressure. German Bunds interest rates climbed in June. The Swiss franc, yen and US Treasuries are also facing issues – challenging their role as assets of last resort. Despite pressures on the price of gold, its lack of credit risk, its liquidity and hedging characteristics has made gold an attractive vehicle for long-term wealth preservation. Outlook: emerging macroeconomic themes in H2 2012 Deflationary concerns in some countries provide room for further fiscal and monetary stimulus. This may lead to a further debasement of currencies through unconventional monetary policy and an increased risk of future inflation. These factors should provide support for future gold investment . The underlying structural issues that affect the euro zone remain unresolved, despite advances in the formation of more comprehensive burden-sharing mechanisms. In such an environment of uncertainty and higher market volatility, gold will continue to be an asset that investors use to diversify risk and preserve capital. The flight to the US dollar as a safe-haven in the first half of 2012 could be reversed. The US debt ceiling debate in Q3 and federal elections in November, followed by the necessity to confront a US$1.3tn budget deficit will prove challenging to the US dollar. With most currencies under pressure in one form or another, gold is likely to provide a hedging mechanism for investors. Chart 1: Performance of gold (US$/oz) price and volatility during Q2 2012 Chart 1: Performance of gold (US$/oz) price and volatility during Q2 2012 - click to enlarge Table 1: Summary of major market events during Q2 2012 Table 1: Summary of major market events during Q2 2012 Table 2: Performance of gold with respect to various currencies Table 2: Performance of gold with respect to various currencies - click to enlarge Global inflation falls but underlying trends supportive for gold A global growth slowdown with consumer retrenchment and steeply falling energy prices (Chart 2) has led to a slowdown in inflation (also referred to as “disinflation”) in major economies at rates reminiscent of the early days of the financial crisis in 2009. While inflation in many major economies has been falling (Chart 3), the potential for more extreme inflation-related environments looms large. On one hand, deflationary (negative inflation) risks are increasing. These risks provide legroom for further government stimulus measures to fuel economic growth which, on the other hand, increases longer-term inflation concerns. Further, a reactivation of economic activity in emerging markets coupled with extreme outcomes of deflation or high inflation should provide support for gold demand going forward. Chart 2: Oil and industrial commodity prices and Chart 3: Headline CPI inflation has dipped in 2012 Chart 2 and Chart 3 - click to enlarge The ongoing euro area crisis has dented consumer and business confidence while increasing fiscal restraint and lending reticence by banks. The contagion outside the region is also increasingly visible. Leading indicators of growth suggest that Europe is in recession, with Germany, the stalwart of stable growth, also succumbing (Chart 4). While consumer price indices in Europe have yet to fall considerably, economic activity indicators suggest that they will do so. The European Central Bank (ECB), perennially one of the most hawkish central banks, recently declared that “inflation expectations remain well anchored and there is no inflation risk in any euro-area country”. 1 Switzerland has also been affected, with its consumer price index (CPI) falling for eight consecutive months. The Swiss economy is still in relatively good shape, but persistent currency strength and deflation will raise fears of postponed spending. Chart 4: Euro-area slowdown: bank lending, German factory orders, Eurozone IP Chart 4: Euro-area slowdown: bank lending, German factory orders, Eurozone IP - click to enlarge The slowdown in Europe has spilled over to the US and the UK, and has affected demand from emerging markets. From China and India to Brazil and Russia, the effects of the global slowdown are evident through both domestic growth and local prices. Notably, India currently faces a bout of stagflation (high inflation coupled with slower economic growth) as supply-side factors and currency weakness have supported sticky inflation. It is not a simple task to estimate how long this higher inflation environment will last. However, prices should stabilise as consumer demand slows, as has occurred in other countries. Falling prices can put downward pressure on gold prices, on the back of its role as an inflation hedge. However, this simplification does not capture the full depth of the situation. As shown in “ The impact of inflation and deflation in the case for gold ” by Oxford Economics, gold is useful to investors in various economic scenarios, not only during high inflation periods. The research found that while deflation leads to a rise in the US dollar – a potential headwind for gold – it maintained that the destructive impact of deflation on traditional assets was likely to outweigh the US dollar effect and provide a boost to gold. In fact, the analysis showed that gold would outperform equities and housing in a deflationary scenario. Additionally, a disinflationary (and ultimately deflationary) environment provides central banks with more room to manoeuvre on stimulus. For example, on 5 July, the Bank of England (BoE), People’s Bank of China and the ECB acted in unison by announcing accommodative measures in response to weak economic numbers.2 These accommodative measures should fuel the risk of consumer price inflation further down the line while providing a temporary boost both to asset prices and capital flows to emerging markets. Further, the apparent dependency on central bank support for an ailing global economy highlights its chronic weakness. The combined weight of uncertainty and hope of central bank action will maintain higher asset price volatility. Therefore, while inflationary pressures may be receding in various regions, there are underlying trends to suggest that deflation risk has increased. This challenging environment tends to be conducive to gold investment. In addition, the current lower level of inflation has cleared the path for further monetary and fiscal easing. The scope for further quantitative easing and fiscal support will raise future inflationary risks but might also catalyse global growth – painting a backdrop that is typically supportive of gold demand. Reassessing “risk-free” assets Over the past year, two national bond markets have provided shelter from turbulence in global risk assets: US Treasuries and German Bunds (Chart 5). Additionally, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc have benefited from de-risking flows. These positions have allowed investors to preserve capital while risk assets have floundered (performance measures in various currencies can be found in the investment statistics ). However, being an asset of last resort is not without consequences. In particular, the investors seeking more “safe” assets must also recognise that the ever-increasing supply of both currency and debt deplete the value of these assets. Furthermore, as declining yields approach zero, they create very skewed pay-off structures with much more downside risk. Unlike currencies and bonds, gold does not carry a liability, thus a rise in its value has no detrimental effect on other parties. Moreover, gold is a highly liquid asset – often times used as a de-facto currency – which forms an integral part of the monetary system. Therefore, while gold has been negatively impacted by a stronger US dollar this year, it remains an important alternative to investors seeking to preserve capital over the longer time horizon. Charts 5-6: Depletion of safe-havens Charts 5-6: Depletion of safe-havens- click to enlarge The euro crisis has highlighted the depth and breadth of the problems facing the global economy. Financial market integration and fiscal irresponsibility across the globe have left investors with few choices for capital preservation. In fact, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – often referred to as the central bank for central banks – in its most recent annual report included commentary devoted to the topic of Sovereigns’ loss of their “risk-free” status and the implications for financial markets. 3 Developments in the euro-area crisis during Q2 2012 have led markets towards the realisation that most outcomes in this ongoing saga will be painful not just for the peripheral countries, but also to core economies – particularly Germany. Whether through its contributions to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism or through its potential liabilities for losses in its banking system, Germany appears to be on the brink of sharing the burden of the peripheral countries’ woes, which may run the risk of affecting its credit rating. A brief but sharp drop in German and the troubled peripheral government bonds, alarmed some investors during the second quarter. Although other factors may have been at play,4 it highlighted the fact that whatever the outcome in the euro area saga, Germany’s liabilities are large and likely to increase as a result of greater burden sharing. Further, the EU summit agreements reached on 28 June, which contributed to an across-the-board positive reaction by markets have, at the very least, exceeded reluctant but necessary concessions made by Germany. While this may finally put Europe on a path towards a unified solution, it also increases the pressure on the Bund’s “asset of last resort” status. US Treasuries have provided investors with consistent returns so far this year. However, while yields are at, or close to, record lows – reflecting their safe-haven status – the Treasury market faces significant risks. Investors are bracing for another round of debt-ceiling negotiations; during 2011, those drew a negative outlook warning from Standard and Poor’s rating agency. In addition, as the US presidential elections loom, a decision on how to deal with the “fiscal cliff” will have to be made to avert a sizeable drag on growth. As the US holds the world’s reserve currency and has a resilient and dynamic economy, questions over its debt sustainability may be unwarranted. However, interest rates risks lie increasingly to the upside to the detriment of risk averse investors, especially in a negative real yield environment. In Japan, safe-haven flows to the yen have resulted in a spate of interventions by authorities over the last 18 months to quell the rise in the currency, with their 1 June 2012 statement denouncing currency market volatility and declaring a readiness to continue their policy. Interventions during 2011, which incurred large volume spikes, had the desired immediate effect of weakening the yen, though have yet to significantly dent the upward trend. A stronger yen fuels continued deflation and a fall in export competitiveness has seen the Japanese economy experience the deepest contraction since the 1930s. The yen may provide a safe-haven for many investors but can also be recognised as a drag to the Japanese economy. In addition, Switzerland, which exports more than half of its goods and services to its neighbours in Europe, has been dealt a double blow with its currency being considered a “safe-haven”. Persistent disinflation and strong currency flows prompted the central bank to intervene and peg the currency to the euro. For Swiss investors, gold performed better than might have been expected due to the aforementioned pegging. Investors increasingly look for alternative assets to preserve capital in the face of a potential depletion of safe-haven assets. Gold’s intrinsic characteristics such as lack of credit and counterparty risk, coupled with a deep and liquid market, can provide long-term protection to investors’ capital. Correlation between gold and risk assets falls toward long-term averages Gold’s role as a diversifier was scrutinised during Q1 2012 as correlations increased; however, its correlation to equities and commodities fell closer to long-term averages during Q2. Global growth slowed during the period as a slew of economic numbers suggests that the US recovery is stalling, China’s growth is waning and that the euro area is slipping into recession. Each of these contributed to gold’s lower correlation to equities. Gold maintained a higher than average correlation with global bonds as a by-product of a strong US dollar. In a continuation of its recent trend, gold’s negative correlation to the US dollar remained significantly stronger than its long-term average. This was partly caused by investors flocking to US Treasuries and selling their portfolio holdings, including gold. Gold was not the only asset that was affected by the dollar, as shown in Chart 8; most assets had a stronger inverse correlation to the dollar. US Treasuries, on the other hand, had a strong positive correlation to the dollar – suggesting that interest in dollars is based on safe-haven flight rather than a particularly bullish view on US prospects for growth. Charts 7-8: Correlation to global assets, gold v US dollar Charts 7-8: Correlation to global assets, gold v US dollar - click to enlarge Looking back to Q1 2012, gold had a higher correlation to global equities, emerging markets and commodities than the long-run average; however, this correlation was not indicative of a direct economic relationship. In our Investment statistics commentary for Q1 2012 , we observed that this correlation to equities was spurious. When viewing gold’s return in relationship to a strong US dollar, the relationship between equity and gold returns decreased significantly. Consequently, gold’s increased correlation to equities was due to the indirect effect of a weaker global economy coupled with a stronger US dollar. The flight to the US dollar in the first half of 2012 could reverse in the second half of the year and will likely bring some challenges to the US dollar that could prevent continuation of the consistent inflows it has experienced so far. The US debt ceiling debate in Q3 and federal elections in November, followed by the necessity to confront a US$1.3tn budget deficit will prove challenging to the US dollar. Therefore, we expect gold’s correlation to most assets to remain low and gold to act as a currency hedge in the international monetary system, particularly against the US dollar. This will be especially prevalent if see-sawing risk aversion and fluctuations in global growth expectations persist. 1 Mario Draghi, 15 June 2012. 2 The BoE announced further quantitative easing as inflation is falling and as the euro area fallout threatens to impact British investors. In equal measure, Chinese authorities lowered the benchmark borrowing rate as they are also better placed to act with price increases slowing. Similarly, the ECB cut its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25% to a record low of 0.75%. 3 http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2012e.htm 4 Excessive long positioning and a ruling by Danish pension authorities enabling domestic funds to cut bond positions – of which Bunds would have been a sizeable proportion. Investment statistics commentary archive The quarterly Investment Statistics Commentary succeeded the Gold Investment Digest (GID), which was published between Q3 2006 and Q2 2011 and examined trends in price, investment markets and the macro-economy relating to gold and other assets typically found in an investor portfolio. The Commentary complements the investment statistics analysis updated on a regular basis. Investment statistics commentary Q1 2012 Full year 2011 - Download this document (0.2 MB) Gold Investment Digest - archive 2011 Q2 (PDF 2.4 MB) Q1 (PDF 2.3 MB) 2010 Q4 (PDF 2.9 MB) Q3 (PDF 1.3 MB) Q2 (PDF 1.2 MB) Q1 (PDF 1.0 MB) 2009 Q4 (PDF 1.1 MB) Q3 (PDF 1.1 MB) Q2 (PDF 0.9 MB) Q1 (PDF 0.5 MB) 2008 Q4 (PDF 0.6 MB) Q3 (PDF 0.6 MB) Q2 (PDF 0.7 MB) Q1 (PDF 0.4 MB) 2007 Q4 (PDF 0.3 MB) Q3 (PDF 0.4 MB) Q2 (PDF 0.3 MB) Q1 (PDF 0.4 MB) 2006 Q4 (PDF 0.3 MB) Q3 (PDF 0.8 MB) The World Gold Council's Gold Investment Digest (GID) examined price and volatility trends for gold and other assets typically found in an investor portfolio. It also looked at the primary macro-economic drivers behind gold’s performance and preliminary trends on demand and supply. GID was organised into four sections: Price trends – Gold price and volatility performance in multiple currencies and its relation to other global financial assets including most liquid commodities. Investment trends – Trends in the most active gold investment markets including ETFs, futures and options, and over-the counter products. Economic trends – An analysis of the most important macro-economic factors that influenced gold’s performance during the period. Gold market trends – Gold demand and supply statistics as of the last available World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends publication, and discussion on preliminary reports on recent trends and their effect on gold’s performance. Additionally, GID included a concise key data summary - financial statistics on gold and various assets including price, volatility and correlation measures. All of which, and more continue to be provided within our investment statistics files. Explanatory text... Also in this section Regular reports Gold Demand Trends Gold Demand Trends - Japanese Investment statistics commentary Commentary Q1 2012 Research summaries Featured research 日本の投資家向けレポート Thematic research Portfolio diversification For European investors For UK investors Gold and alternatives Gold and inflation Impact of inflation and deflation Investors guide to the gold market (European edition) Investitionsführer Gold (Europische Ausgabe) Gold and the dollar Wealth protection Hedging against tail risk Country case studies Gold and commodities The gold market Central banks Related Investment statistics commentary, Full Year 2011 Read more... (PDF 1.3 MB) Gold Investment Digest - archive Read more...
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分享 关于2012中国电商品牌大会
hildm 2012-7-2 21:56
中国电商品牌大会到目前为止已举办两届,目前已基本形成“南有全球网商大会,北有中国电商品牌大会”的业内声誉与影响力。 2011年首届中国电商品牌大会于9月9日在京举办,当当网联合总裁李国庆等在大会发表了主题演讲,300余名国内电商行业精英参加了会议, 在电商行业引起了较大反响。2012中国电商品牌大会基本信息如下: 主办单位:《广告主》杂志 中国电子商务协会网络整合营销研究中心 承办单位:《广告主》杂志 时 间:8月10日 地 点:北京 规 模:300人次,其中大约200人为国内大中型电子商务企业高管(CEO\CMO\CFO\COO等),大约100人为电子商务营销服务商(广 告公司、营销服务公司等)和媒体广告运营方面的负责人。 内 容:大会拟设“成本高企下的电商营销传播困境如何突围”、“ 产品、流量、转化率:B2C电商怎样紧抓三大关键点”、“传 统企业电商营销渐入佳境之道”等三大主题论坛。每个主题论坛以“嘉宾主题演讲+圆桌互动”的形式展开。“主题演讲嘉宾”主要以国内知 名电子商务企业的CEO、CMO、CFO、COO等为主,兼顾电子商务营销传播专家学者和电子商务营销服务商、媒体广告运营负责人,“圆桌互动 ”主要以主题演讲嘉宾、国内新兴电子商务企业负责人、电子商务营销服务商及媒体高管为主,就主题论坛相关内容进行互动讨论。 2012中国电商品牌大会流程 13:30—14:30 来宾签到、领取会议资料 主办方致开幕辞,白皮书发布 14:30—14:35 中国电子商务协会网络整合营销研究中心主任 刘东明 14:35—14:40 《广告主》杂志主编 刘再兴 论坛一:成本高企下的电商营销传播困境如何突围 14:40—15:50 拟邀主题演讲嘉宾 14:40—14:55 知名电商企业高层 14:55—15:10 电子商务品牌服务公司高层 15:10—15:50 拟邀圆桌互动企业高层 当当、天猫、凡客、珂兰钻石、酒仙网、红孩子等电商企业高层电商营销服务公司高层 媒体广告运营高层 论坛二:产品、流量、转化率:B2C电商怎样紧抓三大关键点 15:50—17:00 拟邀主题演讲嘉宾 17:50—16:05 知名电商企业高层 16:05—16:20 知名媒体广告运营高层 16:20—17:00 拟邀圆桌互动嘉宾 京东商城、淘宝、亚马逊、海E家、乐友母婴用品网、好乐买等电商企业高层电商营销服务公司高层 媒体广告运营高层 论坛三:传统企业电商营销渐入佳境之道 17:00—18:10 拟邀主题演讲嘉宾 17:00—17:15 知名电商企业高层 17:15—17:30 知名电商营销服务公司高层 17:30—18:10 拟邀圆桌互动嘉宾 苏宁易购、国美网上商城、曲美在线商城、海E家、红豆商城等传统企业电商业务高层电商营销服务公司高层 媒体广告运营高层
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分享 America's Hidden 8% VAT: Sickcare (May 10, 2012)
insight 2012-5-26 19:06
America's Hidden 8% VAT: Sickcare (May 10, 2012) The bloated, inefficient sickcare ("healthcare") system in the U.S. is in effect an unofficial tax on the entire economy. You may think only European countries have VAT (value-added taxes), but America has one, too--it's just hidden in the sprawling "healthcare" system, i.e. sickcare. A value-added tax (VAT) is a broad-based consumption tax designed to raise tax revenues from across the entire economy. Since it's in everything you buy, you can't escape paying it unless you go to another country without a VAT. While the U.S. doesn't have an official VAT, it has an unofficial one that we all end up paying for indirectly: the 8% difference between what we pay for our bloated, fraud-ridden healthcare system and what our global competitors pay for their universal-care healthcare systems. The U.S. spends 17% of its GDP (gross domestic product) on healthcare, while other advanced democracies spend between 6% and 9%. At a minimum, the U.S. pays a staggering 8% more of its $15 trillion GDP for a system that arguably leaves Americans less healthy than competing systems. (That is certainly the case in terms of life expectancy, natal care, body mass index, etc.) We need to stipulate a few things right off the bat. One is that the inadequacies of U.S. sickcare are systemic; the system is so debilitating that it is an impediment to those individuals and caregivers working within the system. Secondly, we need to dispense with the falsehood that our advanced-democracy competitors (Japan, Germany, France, Australia, etc.) have completely "socialized" healthcare systems. On the contrary, as this chart shows, private insurance and spending are integral parts of their healthcare. The difference is in the relative proportion of total spending that is private. To take France as an example: individuals with the means to do so buy supplementary private insurance that offers coverage above and beyond what the state system provides. Note that Japan provides care for its populace for a mere 36% of what the U.S. spends per person. Germany and France spend about half of what the U.S. spends per person. The incredible disparity between what America spends and what other nations spend is easily seen in this chart: Meanwhile, the U.S. outpaces the world in another category: body mass index (BMI), a broad measure of obesity. Yes, a few body-builders manage to have high BMIs based on bulked-up muscles, but for 99.9% of humanity a high BMI indicates a spectrum of obesity which is highly correlated with a range of chronic diseases. American sickcare is sick for a number of reasons. One is that it is highly profitable to manage chronic lifestyle diseases such as heart disease and diabetes, while it is essentially profitless to encourage healthy lifestyles based on diet, fitness and positive mental health practices. As a result, sickcare has zero interest (other than lip-service) in fostering (or emphasizing) prevention or in providing an integrated system of health which starts with what we do and eat every day. This chart describes a few of the causal factors: It's also highly profitable to turn people into couch-potato media addicts who are also hooked on sugary, fatty, salty snacks, fast food and packaged food. Convincing people a handful of pills is all they need to restore health is also highly profitable. The U.S. has seemingly intractable lifestyle-related health issues that sickcare simply isn't dealing with effectively ; it can even be argued that sickcare is actively making the problems worse in a multitude of structural ways. 86% of Workers Are Obese or Have Other Health Issue Just 1 in 7 U.S. workers is of normal weight without a chronic health problem. If you don't think chronic ill-health and the 8% sickcare VAT is a threat to national security, please consider this slideshow map of the U.S. which depicts the obesity epidemic on a state-by-state basis: Centers for Disease Control, U.S. Obesity Trends 1985-2007 Here's the key question: what else could we do with the $1 trillion that we currently squander every year on fraud, paper-pushing, duplicate/useless tests, highly addicitive prescription drugs, etc.? That $1 trillion is the 8% sickcare VAT. That's enough to reduce the Federal deficit to a manageable level. The second question is: is there a more effective way to spend the other $1.5 trillion we spend on healthcare? Answer: obviously yes. We could start by understanding health is integrated with lifestyle, diet, fitness and our environment, and that relying on quasi-monopolistic cartels and Federal agencies to provide "solutions" is what got us in this quagmire in the first place. Our national security and fiscal viability both depend on radically transforming sickcare before it brings down the nation. I have covered these issues in depth for years: Healthcare "Reform": the State and Plutocracy Stripmine the Middle Class (Again) (November 9, 2009) The Simulacra of Change, the Propaganda of Hope (January 20, 2010) Skyrocketing Health Care Costs Hamper U.S. Competitiveness Improving Americans' Health, With or Without Health Care Reform Is Fee-for-Service What Ails America's Health Care System? Can Health Care Reform Possibly Control Costs? (April 10, 2011)
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分享 2012年5月22日中午验证http代理ip1056个
yisongtang 2012-5-22 20:52
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分享 The Exam 2012
viyko 2012-5-11 19:20
bbs.pinggu.org/a-1004023.html 网页快照 您已公开地对此项 +1。 撤消 中级财务管理 (第8版) 布里格姆戴夫斯 .pdf. 文件名. 原始密码后3位改成333.rar. 附件大小. 3.28 KB. 下载 通道, 游客无法 下载 ,请登录后 下载 ,新手指南 ... 中级财务管理 布里格姆 戴夫斯 下载 的相关搜索 中级财务管理教材下载 中级财务管理视频下载 中级财务管理习题下载 中级财务管理讲义下载 中级财务管理下载 2010中级财务管理下载 中级财务管理 中级财务管理视频 中级财务管理电子书 2008中级财务管理试题 上一页 1 2 3 4
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