We believe that the key driver that will determine whether underperformance sustained by Chinese equities (MSCI and A shares) over the past two years will reverse in 2011 is to be found in the tug of war between PIMCO’s―new normal‖and growing investor perception that the world might be returning back to the―old normal‖of debt-fuelled growth，low volatility，and limited inflation. Although in the short-term，the US will try to avoid painful restructuring and its endeavor will be supported by China (anxious to delay recognizing bankruptcy of its own model)，and eventually Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB)，this is unlikely to be a sustainable long-term term outcome (ie，fixing debt problem with more debt or excessive investments with more investments). Instead we expect a return to higher volatility—both financial instruments and underlying growth rates. While we do not envisage a―double dip‖or deflation，we do expect the governments’role to continue to grow as they attempt to support asset prices and revive credit via loose monetary and fiscal policies.
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