ＩＭＦ报告称美国财政状况难以为继

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新华网华盛顿４月４日电（记者刘丽娜　蒋旭峰）

国际货币基金组织（ＩＭＦ）４日发布报告称，美国面临着无法维持的财政状况，美国人必须缴纳更高赋税，并减少公共医疗支出，才能确保财政回归可持续轨道。

　　根据这份名为《美国财政与代际失衡分析：谁来埋单和怎样埋单》的报告，ＩＭＦ三位经济学家分析了美国当前的财政难题。报告称：“由于高财政赤字、老龄化以及**提供的医疗福利的快速增长，美国财政面临着无法维持的局面。”

　　报告认为，美国的**福利计划，尤其是医疗福利支出在未来数年将迅速增长。报告建议，美国必须提高税收，削减“婴儿潮”美国人（目前４５－６５岁）的医疗开支。报告说，采取这些措施将需要很长时间，才能使美国重归财政可持续之路。但行动越晚，成本越高。

　　目前美国公共债务总额日益迫近国会批准的１４．３万亿美元上限。美国两党正在就提高公债上限事宜进行激烈博弈。

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关键词：美国财政 国际货币基金组织 国际货币基金 公共医疗 财政赤字 美国 财政 状况 ＩＭＦ

"An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?"

Author/Editor:  Batini, Nicoletta ; Callegari, Giovanni ; Guerreiro, Julia  
Authorized for Distribution:  April 01, 2011  

下载网址:http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24770

Summary: This paper updates existing measures of the U.S. fiscal gap to include federal laws up to and including the mid-December 2010 federal fiscal stimulus. It then applies the methodology of generational accounting to establish how the burden of adjustment required to attain fiscal sustainability is shared across generations. We find that the U.S. fiscal and generational imbalances are large under plausible parametric assumptions, and, while not much affected by the financial crisis, they have not improved much by the passing of the Final Healthcare Legislation. We find that, under our baseline scenario, a full elimination of the fiscal and generational imbalances would require all taxes to go up and all transfers to be cut immediately and permanently by 35 percent. A delay in the adjustment makes it more costly.

美国正在消减预算呢，包括高校的预算也在消减，学生们抗议的声音很高。
也许美国会开征VAT来缓解财政困难，虽然具体时间未定，但支持开征新税的法律学者还是挺多的。

There are someguys have suggested using VAT tax substitue corperate income taxes in the U.S. from early 80s, but the piont is Americans have accustomed to the old tax rule and the transition costs are so huge. therefore, it is impossible taking VAT as the new fiscal revenue.