日本地震后分析 --- Morgan Stanley Research

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Morgan Stanley MUFG Research


Stefan Pendert
Head of Japan Research and Distribution
+81 3 5424-5689
Stefan.Pendert@morganstanleymufg.com

Dennis Yamada
Deputy Head of Japan Research
+81 3 5424-5397
Dennis.Yamada@morganstanleymufg.com

Paul Hitchens
Head of Product
+81 3 5424-5734
Paul.Hitchens@morganstanleymufg.com


The enormous scale of the disaster on March 11,
which released 350x more energy than the Hanshin
Earthquake of 1995, continues to have serious
implications. Also, concerns about the Fukushima
nuclear facilities remain. Our thoughts and prayers
are with all those affected by this tragedy, and we
hope for the success of ongoing relief operations.
A First Assessment: It is far too early to grasp the full
implications of the tragedy and the overall situation
remains fluid. This piece begins the debate over the
impact on the macroeconomy, sectors and companies.
Macro Impact: Short, sharp downturn, followed by a Uor
V-shaped recovery. Monetary and currency policy
react first, followed by several large fiscal packages. We
foresee short term yen stability, followed by yen
weakness.
Equity Strategy: There is no rush, but every dip is a dip
to buy. The three key factors: Earnings disruptions will
last only a few quarters. Valuations suggest support at
TOPIX around 800 (CAPE at 12.5x). Sentiment,
currently dominant, depends on nuclear developments,
power disruptions, and clarity in the financial system.
Industry Analysis: The major debates concern (a)
damage to production, (b) potential disruption of power
supply, and (c) future demand impact. Analysts have
identified sectors with potential for bottlenecks, and
overall impact on individual companies. We present the
sector analyses according to breadth of impact in each
sector. Of course, this order does not necessarily imply
investment attractiveness.

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