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摘要翻译：
“每x个人中就有一个人得了癌症”或“每y个人中就有一个人在Z岁时得了癌症”等公共信息的含义可以得到改善。通常援引的一个假设是没有其他死亡原因，这是一个令人困惑的假设。我们开发了一个灯泡模型来澄清累积风险，我们使用马尔可夫链模型，结合广泛存在的假设，来评估转移概率。然后，澳大利亚的数据报告了癌症风险的年龄进展。未来的建模可以引出现实的假设。
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英文标题：
《Cancer Risk Messages: A Light Bulb Model》
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作者：
Ka C. Chan, Ruth F. G. Williams, Christopher T. Lenard, and Terence M.
Mills
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
The meaning of public messages such as "One in x people gets cancer" or "One in y people gets cancer by age z" can be improved. One assumption commonly invoked is that there is no other cause of death, a confusing assumption. We develop a light bulb model to clarify cumulative risk and we use Markov chain modeling, incorporating the assumption widely in place, to evaluate transition probabilities. Age-progression in the cancer risk is then reported on Australian data. Future modelling can elicit realistic assumptions.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.03040
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