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摘要翻译：
民主与经济增长之间的关系是人们长期关注的问题。我们回顾了Acemoglu、Naidu、Restrepo和Robinson（即将出版）使用最先进的计量经济学方法对这种关系的面板数据分析。我们认为，这个和经济学中的许多其他面板数据设置实际上是高维的，导致主估计量--固定效应(FE)和阿雷拉诺-邦德(AB)估计量--偏差到使统计推断无效的程度。然而，我们可以通过使用简单的分析和样本分裂方法来消除这些偏差，从而恢复有效的统计推断。我们发现，去偏的FE和AB估计对民主对增长的长期影响产生了更高的估计，为Acemoglu、Naidu、Restrepo和Robinson（即将出版）的关键假设提供了更有力的支持。鉴于面板数据普遍存在的性质，我们得出结论，使用去偏面板数据估计量将大大提高经济学中经验推断的质量。
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英文标题：
《Mastering Panel 'Metrics: Causal Impact of Democracy on Growth》
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作者：
Shuowen Chen, Victor Chernozhukov and Iv\'an Fern\'andez-Val
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最新提交年份：
2019
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Methodology 方法论
分类描述：Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计，调查，模型选择，多重检验，多元方法，信号和图像处理，时间序列，平滑，空间统计，生存分析，非参数和半参数方法
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英文摘要：
The relationship between democracy and economic growth is of long-standing interest. We revisit the panel data analysis of this relationship by Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (forthcoming) using state of the art econometric methods. We argue that this and lots of other panel data settings in economics are in fact high-dimensional, resulting in principal estimators -- the fixed effects (FE) and Arellano-Bond (AB) estimators -- to be biased to the degree that invalidates statistical inference. We can however remove these biases by using simple analytical and sample-splitting methods, and thereby restore valid statistical inference. We find that the debiased FE and AB estimators produce substantially higher estimates of the long-run effect of democracy on growth, providing even stronger support for the key hypothesis in Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo and Robinson (forthcoming). Given the ubiquitous nature of panel data, we conclude that the use of debiased panel data estimators should substantially improve the quality of empirical inference in economics.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.03821
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