摘要翻译:
象棋和机遇似乎是奇怪的同床异梦。运气和/或随机性没有明显的作用,移动选择时,游戏是在最高水平。然而,当比赛进入终极层面,即世界国际象棋锦标赛(WCC)时,国际象棋和阴谋并不是同床异梦,参与者之间的指控由来已久,丰富多彩。其中一个经常被重复的指控是,1985年WCC的所有比赛(卡尔波夫对卡斯帕罗夫)都是固定的,预先安排好的。这一说法是由前世界冠军鲍比·菲舍尔提出的,他认为应该对此进行调查。这一主张的唯一公布的具体依据是观察到的一系列特定移动,因此可以使用概率和统计方法进行调查。特别地,我们使用嵌入有限马尔可夫链来评估运行统计分布。此外,我们还演示了国际象棋计算机和游戏数据库是如何处理这个问题的。
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英文标题:
《Chess, Chance and Conspiracy》
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作者:
Mark R. Segal
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最新提交年份:
2007
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分类信息:
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Methodology 方法论
分类描述:Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计,调查,模型选择,多重检验,多元方法,信号和图像处理,时间序列,平滑,空间统计,生存分析,非参数和半参数方法
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英文摘要:
Chess and chance are seemingly strange bedfellows. Luck and/or randomness have no apparent role in move selection when the game is played at the highest levels. However, when competition is at the ultimate level, that of the World Chess Championship (WCC), chess and conspiracy are not strange bedfellows, there being a long and colorful history of accusations levied between participants. One such accusation, frequently repeated, was that all the games in the 1985 WCC (Karpov vs Kasparov) were fixed and prearranged move by move. That this claim was advanced by a former World Champion, Bobby Fischer, argues that it ought be investigated. That the only published, concrete basis for this claim consists of an observed run of particular moves, allows this investigation to be performed using probabilistic and statistical methods. In particular, we employ imbedded finite Markov chains to evaluate run statistic distributions. Further, we demonstrate how both chess computers and game data bases can be brought to bear on the problem.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/708.3961