发帖
雷达卡
摘要翻译：
通过模拟工程和科学中的边界元法，我们分析了奥地利、意大利、荷兰、瑞典、瑞士和美国的失业率，并建立了失业率与通货膨胀和劳动力变化的函数关系。最初，将失业与通货膨胀和劳动力联系起来的模型被开发出来，并成功地在奥地利、加拿大、法国、德国、日本和美国进行了测试。这两个变量的自回归性质都不能用来预测它们的演化。从这个意义上说，该模型是一个自洽的完全确定的模型，除了与测量误差和测量单位变化有关的随机成分（外部冲击）之外，没有任何随机成分（外部冲击）。然而，该模型解释了65%至95%的失业和通货膨胀的可变性。意大利的失业率是在9年的时间范围内预测的，1973年至2006年期间的假样本外均方根预测误差为0.55%。人们可以预计，美国的就业率将从2008年开始增长，到2012年将达到11.4%。2012年以后，意大利的失业率将开始下降。
---
英文标题：
《Unemployment and inflation in Western Europe: solution by the boundary
element method》
---
作者：
Ivan Kitov, Oleg Kitov
---
最新提交年份：
2009
---
分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--
---
英文摘要：
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor force was developed and successfully tested for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Autoregressive properties of neither of these variables are used to predict their evolution. In this sense, the model is a self-consistent and completely deterministic one without any stochastic component (external shocks) except that associated with measurement errors and changes in measurement units. Nevertheless, the model explains between 65% and 95% of the variability in unemployment and inflation. For Italy, the rate of unemployment is predicted at a time horizon of nine years with pseudo out-of-sample root-mean-square forecasting error of 0.55% for the period between 1973 and 2006. One can expect that the u nemployment will be growing since 2008 and will reach 11.4% near 2012. After 2012, unemployment in Italy will start to descend.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0903.5064
京公网安备 11010802022788号
