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摘要翻译：
使用传统的因果推论方法很难估计剧烈体育活动对老年人死亡率的影响，这种因果推论方法通过比较与目标人群中所有受试者进行给定水平剧烈体育活动的假设情景相对应的死亡率风险来界定这种影响。只有当目标人群中的所有受试者都有肯定的概率选择每个候选治疗方案时，才能从观察到的数据中确定基于这种静态治疗干预的因果效应，这种假设在这种情况下是非常不现实的，因为有严重健康问题的受试者将无法从事更高水平的剧烈体育活动。这个问题可以通过关注因果效应来解决，这些因果效应是基于现实的个体化治疗规则和明确考虑到每个受试者可用的一组治疗选择的意图治疗规则来定义的。我们通过数据分析来说明静态因果效应的估计者实际上倾向于高估高水平剧烈体育活动的有益影响，而基于现实的个体化治疗规则和意图治疗规则的相应估计者可以得到无偏的估计。我们强调，在估计静态因果效应时遇到的问题不仅限于IPTW估计器，而且还可以用$G$-computation估计器、DR-IPTW估计器和目标MLE观察到。我们基于现实的个体化治疗规则和意向治疗规则的分析表明，高水平的剧烈体育活动可以降低15-30%的死亡风险，尽管在大多数情况下，这种效果的证据并不完全达到0.05的显著水平。
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英文标题：
《A practical illustration of the importance of realistic individualized
treatment rules in causal inference》
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作者：
Oliver Bembom, Mark J. van der Laan
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最新提交年份：
2007
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分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
The effect of vigorous physical activity on mortality in the elderly is difficult to estimate using conventional approaches to causal inference that define this effect by comparing the mortality risks corresponding to hypothetical scenarios in which all subjects in the target population engage in a given level of vigorous physical activity. A causal effect defined on the basis of such a static treatment intervention can only be identified from observed data if all subjects in the target population have a positive probability of selecting each of the candidate treatment options, an assumption that is highly unrealistic in this case since subjects with serious health problems will not be able to engage in higher levels of vigorous physical activity. This problem can be addressed by focusing instead on causal effects that are defined on the basis of realistic individualized treatment rules and intention-to-treat rules that explicitly take into account the set of treatment options that are available to each subject. We present a data analysis to illustrate that estimators of static causal effects in fact tend to overestimate the beneficial impact of high levels of vigorous physical activity while corresponding estimators based on realistic individualized treatment rules and intention-to-treat rules can yield unbiased estimates. We emphasize that the problems encountered in estimating static causal effects are not restricted to the IPTW estimator, but are also observed with the $G$-computation estimator, the DR-IPTW estimator, and the targeted MLE. Our analyses based on realistic individualized treatment rules and intention-to-treat rules suggest that high levels of vigorous physical activity may confer reductions in mortality risk on the order of 15-30%, although in most cases the evidence for such an effect does not quite reach the 0.05 level of significance.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/712.066
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