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摘要翻译：
项目推动者、预测者和管理人员有时反对两件事来衡量出行需求预测的不准确性：（1）使用决策建设时所作的预测作为衡量不准确性的基础；（2）使用运营第一年的交通量作为衡量的基础。本文提出了反对这两种反对意见的理由。首先，如果一个人有兴趣了解建造运输基础设施的决定是否基于可靠的信息，那么它正是在作出建造决定时所预测的交通。第二，虽然理想的研究应该考虑到所谓的需求在一段时间内的“上升”，但经验证据和实际考虑并不支持这一理想要求，至少对大N研究来说不是这样。最后，本文认为，大样本的旅游需求预测可能存在保守偏差，即从大样本中估计的旅游需求预测的准确性可能高于项目人口中的旅游需求预测的准确性。在解释旅游需求预测不准确的统计分析结果时，必须考虑到这种偏差。
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英文标题：
《Measuring Inaccuracy in Travel Demand Forecasting: Methodological
Considerations Regarding Ramp Up and Sampling》
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作者：
Bent Flyvbjerg
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measurement. This paper presents the case against both objections. First, if one is interested in learning whether decisions about building transport infrastructure are based on reliable information, then it is exactly the traffic forecasted at the time of making the decision to build that is of interest. Second, although ideally studies should take into account so-called demand "ramp up" over a period of years, the empirical evidence and practical considerations do not support this ideal requirement, at least not for large-N studies. Finally, the paper argues that large samples of inaccuracy in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from statistical analyses of inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1303.7401
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