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摘要翻译：
作者通过对1913-2012年的经验数据进行近似分析，用一个叠加了加速对数周期振荡的幂律函数对美元通胀进行了分析，从而发现了2012年12月17日前后的一个准奇点。事实表明，如果不采取适当措施，人们可能预计今年年底左右会出现通货膨胀，这也可能标志着滞胀的开始，因为没有足够的理由预计到那时世界经济会重新开始强劲的增长。另一方面，正如1970年代和1980年代的经验所表明的那样，滞胀的后果只能在很大的困难和相当高的代价下才能消除，因为低水平的经济增长和就业加上高通胀导致消费急剧下降，加剧了经济萧条。为了减轻货币（首先是美国元）供应爆炸性增长的通货膨胀后果，有必要紧急控制世界货币排放。这一问题应成为即将举行的八国集团和二十国集团首脑会议的中心议题。
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英文标题：
《Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts》
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作者：
Askar Akaev, Andrey Korotayev, and Alexey Fomin
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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英文摘要：
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect a quasi-singularity point around the 17th of December, 2012. It is demonstrated that, if adequate measures are not taken, one may expect a surge of inflation around the end of this year that may also mark the start of stagflation as there are no sufficient grounds to expect the re-start of the dynamic growth of the world economy by that time. On the other hand, as the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s indicates, the stagflation consequences can only be eliminated with great difficulties and at a rather high cost, because the combination of low levels of economic growth and employment with high inflation leads to a sharp decline in consumption, aggravating the economic depression. In order to mitigate the inflationary consequences of the explosive growth of money (and, first of all, US dollar) supply it is necessary to take urgently the world monetary emission under control. This issue should become central at the forthcoming G8 and G20 summits.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.4069
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