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摘要翻译：
经济活动跨部门、跨国家的联合是商业周期的一个决定性特征。然而，将共同作用归因于外生冲击传播的标准模型难以产生与数据中一样高的共同作用水平。在本文中，我们考虑通过某种形式的非线性动力学--极限环或混沌--内生地产生商业周期的模型。这些模型结合了激波传播和内生动力的同步性，产生了更强的协同效应。特别是，我们研究了一个需求驱动的模型，在这个模型中，商业周期产生于不同国家部门之间的战略互补，通过投入产出联系同步它们的振荡。我们首先使用分析方法和大量的数值模拟相结合的方法来建立一些理论结果。我们指出，部门或国家在确定共同振荡频率方面的重要性取决于它们在输入-输出网络中的特征向量中心性，我们发展了一个特征分解，探索非线性动力学、冲击传播和网络结构之间的相互作用。然后，我们将我们的模型与27个部门和17个国家的数据进行校准，表明同步确实产生了更强的一致性，为匹配数据提供了更大的灵活性。
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英文标题：
《Synchronization of endogenous business cycles》
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作者：
Marco Pangallo
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems 自适应和自组织系统
分类描述：Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应，自组织系统，统计物理，波动系统，随机过程，相互作用粒子系统，机器学习
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Comovement of economic activity across sectors and countries is a defining feature of business cycles. However, standard models that attribute comovement to propagation of exogenous shocks struggle to generate a level of comovement that is as high as in the data. In this paper, we consider models that produce business cycles endogenously, through some form of non-linear dynamics---limit cycles or chaos. These models generate stronger comovement, because they combine shock propagation with synchronization of endogenous dynamics. In particular, we study a demand-driven model in which business cycles emerge from strategic complementarities across sectors in different countries, synchronizing their oscillations through input-output linkages. We first use a combination of analytical methods and extensive numerical simulations to establish a number of theoretical results. We show that the importance that sectors or countries have in setting the common frequency of oscillations depends on their eigenvector centrality in the input-output network, and we develop an eigendecomposition that explores the interplay between non-linear dynamics, shock propagation and network structure. We then calibrate our model to data on 27 sectors and 17 countries, showing that synchronization indeed produces stronger comovement, giving more flexibility to match the data.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2002.06555
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