作为集体风险波动的商业周期

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英文标题：
《Business Cycles as Collective Risk Fluctuations》
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作者：
Victor Olkhov
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最新提交年份：
2020
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英文摘要：
  We suggest use continuous numerical risk grades [0,1] of R for a single risk or the unit cube in Rn for n risks as the economic domain. We consider risk ratings of economic agents as their coordinates in the economic domain. Economic activity of agents, economic or other factors change agents risk ratings and that cause motion of agents in the economic domain. Aggregations of variables and transactions of individual agents in small volume of economic domain establish the continuous economic media approximation that describes collective variables, transactions and their flows in the economic domain as functions of risk coordinates. Any economic variable A(t,x) defines mean risk XA(t) as risk weighted by economic variable A(t,x). Collective flows of economic variables in bounded economic domain fluctuate from secure to risky area and back. These fluctuations of flows cause time oscillations of macroeconomic variables A(t) and their mean risks XA(t) in economic domain and are the origin of any business and credit cycles. We derive equations that describe evolution of collective variables, transactions and their flows in the economic domain. As illustration we present simple self-consistent equations of supply-demand cycles that describe fluctuations of supply, demand and their mean risks.
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中文摘要：
我们建议对单个风险使用R的连续数字风险等级[0,1]，或对n个风险使用Rn中的单位立方体作为经济域。我们将经济主体的风险评级视为其在经济领域的坐标。代理人的经济活动、经济因素或其他因素会改变代理人的风险评级，并导致代理人在经济领域的活动。小规模经济领域中个体代理人的变量和交易的聚合建立了连续经济媒体近似，将经济领域中的集体变量、交易及其流动描述为风险坐标的函数。任何经济变量A（t，x）都将平均风险XA（t）定义为由经济变量A（t，x）加权的风险。有限经济领域内经济变量的集体流动从安全区域波动到风险区域，再从风险区域波动回来。这些流量波动导致宏观经济变量A（t）及其平均风险XA（t）在经济领域的时间振荡，是任何商业和信贷周期的起源。我们推导出描述经济领域中集体变量、交易及其流动的演化方程。作为说明，我们给出了简单的供需周期自洽方程，描述了供需波动及其平均风险。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Risk Management        风险管理
分类描述：Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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关键词：商业周期 商业周 Transactions Fluctuations Quantitative