发帖
雷达卡
本期摘要：
1.美国NFP数据(+54k)远差于市场预期(+150k,路透)，美元全面走弱，市场开始讨论和呼唤QE3．德银降低对美国经济增长的预期，将第一次加息时机的预期退后至2012年第一季度．鉴于当前的货币政策和金融条件已经处于空前宽松的阶段，美国经济情况比QE2之前也已有明显改善，我们认为除非美国经济情况进一步显著恶化，否则实行QE3的阻力很大，可行性较小。
2.CNH-NDF基差交易：以3个月CNH-NDF基差为例，过去9个月的持有到期基差交易历史显示所有正基差交易利润均为正值，但如果离岸即期汇率大幅上升并持续高于在岸即期市场，则正基差交易将承受损失。
Highlights of this Week:
1. Macroeconomic newsflow Friday continued to disappoint, especially the nonfarm payroll data ( +54K compared to +150K of the mkt concensus), causing our US economics team to cut their US GDP forecast.In the view of our economics team, financial conditions remain extraordinarily accommodative, thereby mitigating the efficacy of further quantitative easing and consequently we do not see much likelihood for QE3.
2. CNH-NDF Basis Trade: Take the 3M sector as an example, historical data of last 9 months show that positive basis trade ( sell CNH and Buy NDF ) has been consistently profitable.However if the offshore USDCNH spot was squeezed up above onshore USDCNY spot, positive basis trade will suffer.
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