20110623 Follow Me 44

Pretty article ！
Compared with USA  economy situation , ours maybe worse . Say, the CPI index in May , added to nature disaster , inflation( negative interest rate) is the first importance task to handle .

Although the recovery is slower than expected in April, the FOMC statement laid out a re-acceleration of the economy in H2 2011 and into 2012. The slowdown is likely temporary, QE3 is possible but the hurdle for it remains high as Bernanke said in the press conference.

There are two headwinds abroad in my mind in addition to domestic problems in the housing sector, balance sheet and deleveraging issues as Bernanke mentioned.

1) The European debt issue, the events in Greece at the moment in particular, places a significant threat to global recovery. Greece can not be saved by the tools we have now, default or restructuring is unavoidable. But when? It is a political issue beyond what economists can do.

2) China's slow down is another threat. The slow down due to the high inflation is less severe and emergent than the problems in US and EU. A rate hike in June/July is widely expected but the pace is as small as last time and the real rate is still negative. Uncertainty dominates the market since a credit bubble burst will be another much bigger story.

OK

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One thing for sure is that there is nothing can be done enough. There sure to be more to be done concerning the economy recovering a bit faster to lower people's sufferring. Inflation is running high in most developing countries due to, some extent, to the developed countries. The statement read that the long term inflation expectation stability can be assumed is not real. They made people thinking that the inflation expectation can lower somewhat in the future, then what's about the opinion of the odinary people?

The macroeconomics teach us : you never expect low inflation with low unemployment. As the Chinese currency---yuan is appreciating,uncle Sam can hardly buy cheap commodities in the future.Why Fed set the interest rate so low??Because the lower interest, the bigger space can be used in the future.To US people,the unemployment rate is very unbearable.When the next presidential election is coming,the gov will try some to boost the job market.

Well , just see the word(sangine) in the article--It's a GRE word . Something  I want to share .
The first time I saw it in  'the Four Femperaments' --sangine , phlegmatic , choleric and melancholic.each presents for optimistic , dull ,violent, gluttonous .(Jordge Balanchine)

Well , just see the word(sangine) in the article--It's a GRE word . Something  I want to share .
The first time I saw it in  'the Four Femperaments' --sangine , phlegmatic , choleric and melancholic.each presents for optimistic , dull ,violent, gluttonous .(Jordge Balanchine)

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The statement offered hope that the pace of growth would increase, noting that many factors restraining the economy are likely to be temporary, including the impact of higher energy prices and the disruptions to manufacturing caused by the Japanese earthquake. Automakers already are planning sharp increases in production to compensate for the lost volume.
有道理!!

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Inflation itself is not good to economy growth. Fed seems more concentrated on economy boosting, not on inflation curb. Take back the policies what would cause inflation and wait to see a moderate inflation rate in the near future.

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headwind   顶头风，逆风


securities     有价证券


sanguine     充满希望的，乐观的