盘点QE2的赢家与输家【英文版】

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原帖：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1128418-1-1.html一是响应论坛，全民学习英语的号召，二是应需求放上原文。希望对朋友们有帮助。 By Mark Gongloff
And now, the end is here. QE2 has faced the final curtain. The record shows it took the blows and did it QE2′s way.

Regrets, it has a few. Actually, maybe more than a few. Economists are nearly evenly split on its usefulness. The Fed’s bond-buying program, which breathed its last at 11:00 a.m. ET, may have prevented a double-dip recession, but good luck proving a counterfactual.

The list of clear-cut winners in QE2 is pretty short, while the list of “non-winners,” which those less sensitive among us might call “losers,” is a bit longer.

Winners:

Stocks: The Dow has enjoyed a 24% rally since Ben Bernanke’s Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole promising QE2. Pretty clearly a winner.

Corporate America: Not only have stock prices soared, but profits have risen steadily, and companies have been able to borrow record amounts of money at the lowest rates since the 1940s.

Commodities: Crude oil is up 30% since Jackson Hole. Gold is up 21%. Winning.

Banks: This one is less clear-cut. They’ve benefited from super-low short-term rates, but whatever effect the Fed had in keeping longer-term rates down has kept a lid on their net interest margins. Their stocks have been the worst performers in the market this year — though they’re still up 14% since Jackson Hole.

Non-Winners:

The Dollar: The clearest-cut loser of the whole thing. The dollar index is down 10% since Jackson Hole.

Employment: The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.6% in August 2010 to 9.1%, which is certainly a move in the right direction. No one would mistake this for a rousing job boom, however.

Housing: Home prices have fallen 6.5% since Jackson Hole, based on the Case-Shiller 20-city index.

Emerging Markets: They’ve been on a wild ride, enjoying huge gains after Jackson Hole as investors went crazy with the free money, but more recently struggling with the effects of too much growth and inflation. The Shanghai Composite is up 6% since Jackson Hole, but that’s mainly been due to a bounce that started about 10 days ago, following a 14% drop since late April.

Treasury debt: I’m going to go out on a limb and call this one a big loser. Bill Gross would disagree, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2.48% just before Jackson Hole to 3.15% today.

Fed credibility: The jury’s out. There was a lot of criticism of the Fed by foreign officials when QE2 began, but that has quieted down as the global economy has continued to struggle. There’s still a lot of criticism of the Fed here at home, and its legacy remains to be seen.

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关键词：英文版 case-shiller unemployment Commodities Credibility 英文版 赢家 输家 QE2

Good summary, thanks

ccpceo 发表于 2011-7-2 00:16
原帖：https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1128418-1-1.html一是响应论坛，全民学习英语的号召，二是应需求放上原文。希望对朋友们有帮助。 By Mark Gongloff
And now, the end is here. QE2 has faced the final curtain. The record shows it took the blows and did it QE2′s way.

Regrets, it has a few. Actually, maybe more than a few. Economists are nearly evenly split on its usefulness. The Fed’s bond-buying program, which breathed its last at 11:00 a.m. ET, may have prevented a double-dip recession, but good luck proving a counterfactual.

The list of clear-cut winners in QE2 is pretty short, while the list of “non-winners,” which those less sensitive among us might call “losers,” is a bit longer.

Winners:

Stocks: The Dow has enjoyed a 24% rally since Ben Bernanke’s Aug. 27 speech in Jackson Hole promising QE2. Pretty clearly a winner.

Corporate America: Not only have stock prices soared, but profits have risen steadily, and companies have been able to borrow record amounts of money at the lowest rates since the 1940s.

Commodities: Crude oil is up 30% since Jackson Hole. Gold is up 21%. Winning.

Banks: This one is less clear-cut. They’ve benefited from super-low short-term rates, but whatever effect the Fed had in keeping longer-term rates down has kept a lid on their net interest margins. Their stocks have been the worst performers in the market this year — though they’re still up 14% since Jackson Hole.

Non-Winners:

The Dollar: The clearest-cut loser of the whole thing. The dollar index is down 10% since Jackson Hole.

Employment: The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.6% in August 2010 to 9.1%, which is certainly a move in the right direction. No one would mistake this for a rousing job boom, however.

Housing: Home prices have fallen 6.5% since Jackson Hole, based on the Case-Shiller 20-city index.

Emerging Markets: They’ve been on a wild ride, enjoying huge gains after Jackson Hole as investors went crazy with the free money, but more recently struggling with the effects of too much growth and inflation. The Shanghai Composite is up 6% since Jackson Hole, but that’s mainly been due to a bounce that started about 10 days ago, following a 14% drop since late April.

Treasury debt: I’m going to go out on a limb and call this one a big loser. Bill Gross would disagree, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2.48% just before Jackson Hole to 3.15% today.

Fed credibility: The jury’s out. There was a lot of criticism of the Fed by foreign officials when QE2 began, but that has quieted down as the global economy has continued to struggle. There’s still a lot of criticism of the Fed here at home, and its legacy remains to be seen.

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