20110811 Follow Me 92 danellv

打印啦，回家学习，向楼主致敬，出差之前都还这么敬业。

Although economic growth has slowed down in the first half of the year, the risk of a sharp economic decline is slim and investment will continue to grow fast

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美国的第三轮量化宽松会导致中国国内通货膨胀形式严峻。经济发展的三驾马车：出口、消费和投资。现在出口估计指望不上了。投资的话，高铁建设也够呛了，尽管有安居工程，但是这个能撑多久呢？消费的话，按照现在东西的涨价速度，大家减免税的那部分钱也是杯水车薪啊。感觉中国有滞涨的危险啊。

阿萨德发射点发

当下在纷繁复杂的全球金融市场，7月，中国的通货膨胀率创3年来新高，对政策制定者提出了严重挑战。消费者价格指数（CPI）——重要的通胀指标。国家统计局的有关人士表示，由于今年早些时候食品价格飞涨14.8个百分点，导致7月份CPI同比增长6.5%。分析人士指出，高于预期的通胀指数对于决策制定者提出了严峻的挑战，如何在混乱复杂的全球金融市场中有效控制国内的通胀，是决策制定者面临的严重问题。来自美国和欧洲的财经数据显示，中国人民银行的加息可能推迟进一步的加息，直到全球金融市场稳定。（自己翻译的，莫见怪啊）

turmoil    混乱

This passage sounds quite optimistic. I think it failed to consider the the economic and financial status in other countries like US and Europe when the author analised the China's future. If the gloomy of the global economy continues, how can China stay healthy?

"The dump in stock market is seen as a negative overreaction on policy and is unlikely to last long." The drop of stock market is not simply because of the policy, the bearish view on US and European Economy is still an important trigger. As China exports a lot to these countries, if these countries fail to grow and stay in debt crisis, how can China survive?

If we check the daily global stock market indeces, the Asian market is heavily affected by the indeces in developed countries.

I speculate CPI will fall below 6%or 5% in the following several months because the food price which contributes greatly to the CPI can not continue to rise.  But with the  US&European sovereign debt crisis becoming worse,we could not see a bright economic future yet.

suffering from the inflation, or preventing a tempestuous economic slowdown, we need have a choice.

不错  顶一个