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关注一下这个理论。
【诺贝尔经济学奖：前景理论 - 丹尼尔·卡尼曼的简单指南】
前景理论是行为经济学中一个令人着迷的概念，它解释了人们如何在风险下做出决策。
以下是关键想法的细分：
1）关注得失：人们根据参考点（通常是他们当前的情况）评估结果。 他们往往更注重避免损失，而不是获得相同规模的收益。 这就是所谓的损失厌恶。
2）收益和损失的权重不同：该理论表明，损失比同等收益更强烈。 想象一下，失去 100 美元的感觉比找到 100 美元的感觉更糟糕。 这反映在价值函数中，损失比收益更陡峭。
3）决策权重：人们并不能完美地权衡概率。 我们倾向于高估低概率（使不太可能发生的事件看起来更有可能），而低估高概率（使可能发生的事件看起来不太确定）。 这可能会导致在试图避免损失时出现风险规避行为，在追求收益时出现风险规避行为。
前景理论在各个领域都具有重要意义：
1) 投资决策：即使长期前景不佳，投资者也可能更有可能持有亏损股票以避免遭受损失。
2) 营销和销售：根据收益来制定选择比强调潜在损失更有效。
3）公共政策：政策制定者可以利用前景理论来了解人们对不同选择和激励措施的反应。
前景理论是丹尼尔·卡尼曼荣获 2002 年诺贝尔经济学奖的主要原因。
卡尼曼与阿莫斯·特沃斯基一起发展了前景理论。 他们的工作挑战了人们基于完美理性做出决策的传统经济假设。 相反，前景理论解释了心理因素和偏见如何影响我们的选择，特别是在处理收益和损失时。
诺贝尔委员会特别认可了卡尼曼对“不确定性下决策新理论的发展”的贡献，这里直接指的是前景理论。 该理论通过结合心理学的见解来理解现实世界的决策行为，彻底改变了经济学领域。
【Nobel Prize in Economics: Prospect Theory Unveiled- A Simple Guide by Daniel Kahneman】
Prospect theory is a fascinating concept in behavioral economics that explains how people make decisions under risk.
Here's a breakdown of the key ideas:
1) Focus on gains and losses: People evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, often their current situation. They tend to focus more on avoiding losses than acquiring gains of the same size. This is known as loss aversion.
2) Different weighting for gains and losses: The theory suggests that losses are felt more intensely than equivalent gains. Imagine losing $100 feels worse than finding $100 feels good. This is reflected in a value function that is steeper for losses than for gains.
3) Decision weights: People don't perfectly weigh probabilities. We tend to overweight low probabilities (making unlikely events seem more likely) and underweight high probabilities (making likely events seem less certain). This can lead to risk-seeking behavior when trying to avoid losses and risk-averse behavior when aiming for gains.
Prospect theory has important implications in various fields:
1) Investment decisions: Investors might be more likely to hold onto losing stocks to avoid realizing a loss, even if the long-term outlook is poor.
2) Marketing and sales: Framing choices in terms of gains can be more effective than highlighting potential losses.
3) Public policy: Policymakers can use prospect theory to understand how people might react to different options and incentives.
Prospect theory is a major reason why Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002.
Kahneman developed prospect theory along with Amos Tversky. Their work challenged the traditional economic assumption that people make decisions based on perfect rationality. Prospect theory, instead, explains how psychological factors and biases influence our choices, particularly when dealing with gains and losses.
The Nobel committee specifically recognized Kahneman's contributions to "the development of a new theory of decision-making under uncertainty", which directly refers to prospect theory. This theory revolutionized the field of economics by incorporating insights from psychology to understand real-world decision-making behavior.
Video: The Daily Dose of Psychology YouTube 美国创业者的微博视频
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