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中国财政可持续性与ZF最优融资策略——基于1978-2009年数据的实证分析
【复印期号】201106
【英文标题】Sustainability of China's Finance and Governmental Optimal Financing Strategy: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 1978 to 2009
【标题注释】基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(71073076)；国家社科基金项目(10BJY094)。
【作 者】杨宇/沈坤荣
【作者简介】杨宇，管理学博士，南京大学理论经济学博士后，E-mail：yangyu8209499@163.com；沈坤荣，经济学博士，南京大学经济学院教授，博士生导师，E-mail：shenkr@nju.edu.cn（南京 210093）。
【内容提要】金融危机后积极财政政策和宽松货币政策的实施，重新引起了人们对中国财政可持续性的担忧以及对目前ZF融资策略的反思。本文采用1978-2009年样本数据运用协整检验方法评估了不同情况下中国财政可持续性以及ZF融资策略。同以前的研究相比，本文的不同之处在于如下三个方面：第一，考虑了财政体制改革给中国财政收入结构带来的变化，将非税收入从财政收入中剥离，评估了非税收入对中国财政可持续性的影响。第二，考虑了货币发行给ZF收入带来的变化，将央行由于货币发行而产生的铸币税也看作ZF收入的一部分，评估了ZF获得的财政铸币税对中国财政可持续性的影响。第三，利用已有的扩展收入平滑模型运用最新数据考察了中国ZF的融资策略是否最优。实证结果表明，仅仅依靠税收收入不足以保证中国财政可持续性，考虑非税收入后中国财政呈弱可持续性，进一步考虑铸币税收入后中国财政呈强可持续性；尽管中国传统税率的选择路径不是最优的，但是，中国ZF在利用不同手段筹集收入的同时权衡了不同收入方式的无谓损失，宏观税率和通货膨胀率的选择路径是最优的。这一研究结论对于后危机时代如何改善中国财政可持续性具有重要意义。
【摘 要 题】财税政策
【英文摘要】After the financial crisis, due to the implementation of positive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, fiscal sustainability is renewedly worried about, and financing strategy of Government is rethought profoundly. Based on the data from 1978-2009 in China, both fiscal sustainability and financing strategy of Government are assessed by method of cointegration test. In contrast to much previous research, there are three different points. First, we consider the effect of fiscal system reform on fiscal revenue structure, remove non-tax revenue from fiscal revenue, and assess the influence of on fiscal sustainability. Second, we consider the change of government revenue taken by money issue and assess the influence of seigniorage on fiscal sustainability. Third, based on extended tax-smoothing model, we assess financing strategy of government the empirical results on fiscal sustainability show that Chinese fiscal processes is unsustainable only considering tax revenue, that the fiscal processes is weakly sustainable including non-tax revenue, and that the fiscal processes is strongly sustainable including both non-tax revenue and seignorage. The empirical results on the optimal financing strategy show that china's government balances the deadweight loss among different ways of financing and that the choice path of both the macro tax rate and the inflation rate are all optimal although tax rate is not optimal. This conclusion is of great significance for how to improve China's fiscal sustainability in post-Crisis era.
【关 键 词】财政可持续性/税收收入/非税收入/铸币税/融资策略
fiscal sustainabilily/tax revenue/non-tax revenue/seigniorage/financing strategy
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