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xlliu007 发表于 2011-10-11 16:26:24

看完了俩遍

22楼

xlliu007 发表于 2011-10-11 16:26:24

看完了俩遍

23楼

whachel1976 发表于 2011-10-11 18:42:22

Sargent’s awarded research concerns methods that utilize historical data to understand how systematic changes in economic policy affect the economy over time. He first develops a structural macroeconomic model, then solves it with mathematics and finally uses statistical methods to obtain numerical values for the parameters which describe the economic structure.

Sims's awarded research focuses on distinguishing between unexpected changes in variables. He proposed a new method of identifying and interpreting economic shocks in historical data and of analyzing how such shocks are gradually transmitted to different macroeconomic variables. In the first step, the analyst makes a forecast for macroeconomic variables using a vector-autoregression model (a VAR model). The second step involves extracting the fundamental shocks to which the economy has been exposed.And the third step in Sims’s method is an impulse-response analysis, which illustrates the impact over time of the fundamental shocks to the macroeconomic variables.

Sims shared Sargent’s criticism of the large macroeconometric models which were earlier used by researchers,central banks and ministries of finance. He also concurred with Sargent in emphasizing the importance of expectations. The empirical strategies proposed by Sargent and Sims are intercomparable. Both of their methods are widely used in different areas nowadays.

Sargent’s contributions are mainly methodological since his method requires specific assumptions about the structure of the economy. With detailed knowledge about the structure of the economy, Sargent’s method may be preferable, in particular since it allows a counterfactual analysis of systematic changes in economic policy. But when knowledge of the field is less exact, Sims’s method may be safer.

Owing to the scientific contributions of Sargent and Sims, research in macroeconomics and analysis of economic policy have advanced substantially. Their combined work constitutes a solid found.