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US private consumption picked up in January despite more modest income growth than in December. Personal-consumption expenditure, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, rose by 0.2% month on month, the Bureau for Economic Analysis said on January 30th, after being flat a month earlier. Personal income rose by 0.3%, compared with a 0.5% gain in December 2011, while disposable-income growth fell to 0.1% from 0.4% previously. Personal saving, as a proportion of disposable income, was 4.6%, down marginally from 4.7% in December.
THE EIU VIEW
Despite the uptick in January we expect US private-consumption growth to weaken somewhat in 2012. Uncertainty over jobs, volatile financial markets and the still-depressed housing market will hold back consumer spending, with doubts about the euro area debt crisis further undermining consumer confidence. However, an agreement to extend the payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits until February (which may be extended further) will cushion the impact. We expect private consumption to grow by an average of 2% this year, down from 2.2% growth in 2011.
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