Whether to cut the payroll tax or not？

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The payroll tax cut is having the expected labor market effects, but those effects will reverse themselves when the cuts inevitably expire.

Beginning in January 2011, the payroll tax withheld from employee paychecks was temporarily reduced to 4.2 percentage points from 6.2 percentage points. The cut was scheduled to expire at the end of 2011, but Congress has continued it through the end of 2012.

My calculations last year, based on the proposed cut of 3.1 percentage points, suggested that the payroll tax cut “could raise employment by at least a million, albeit the duration of job creation is related to how long the tax cut lasts.”

On a seasonally adjusted basis, payroll employment was 130.2 million at the end of 2010, just before the payroll tax cuts took effect. As of last month, payroll employment was up 2 percent, or 2.5 million, to 132.7 million. The household employment survey tells a similar story. Aggregate hours worked — the product of employment and the length of an average employee’s work — increased almost 3 percent.

Of course, the payroll tax cut was not the only factor affecting the economy since 2010. If nothing else, population growth would have increased employment by about 1.2 million over that time frame. In addition to the increase expected from population growth, payroll employment therefore increased by another 1.3 million since the time that the payroll tax cut went into effect.

During the same period, various parts of the federal government’s 2009 stimulus package expired and state and local governments were, on average, laying off employees. Housing prices also fell somewhat — more than 4 percent according to the Case-Shiller index. One point of view is that government and housing contraction tends to reduce total employment, which makes it even more remarkable that the net result of the payroll tax cut and these contractionary events was an employment increase beyond population growth.

Regardless of the source of the two and a half million new jobs, employment is still millions below where it would have been if employment had grown with population since 2007. But nobody promised that a mere two-percentage-point payroll tax cut would bring the economy back all by itself.

This minirecovery may not last, because the payroll tax cut will eventually expire. When that happens, the payroll tax rate increase by itself will tend to reduce employment by about a million, so that employment can increase further only if population or other sources of economic growth are enough to offset tax-cut expiration.

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关键词：Whether Payroll roll The ETH percentage themselves continued scheduled employee

so nice

小女才疏学浅，不逐字翻译啦，大意如下：

主要是关于是否要降低工资税来增加就业，促进经济复苏的问题。

文中提到减少工资税会对劳务市场产生影响，但这种影响减会随着降税措施的取消而发生逆转，如2011年1月开始工税从6.2%降到4.2%，但很快在2011年年末取消，国会承诺将在2012年末继续执行。学者估计若降税将增加至少一百万的就业人数，但关键取决于降税政策的持续创造就业机会的时间。

当然，工资税不是唯一影响近几年经济的因素，还有人口的增加。但政策期满，ZF会倾向于继续收税来保证财政收入，又会导致降低就业人数，紧缩政策的效果应该是使得就业人数增加超过人口数量的增加。
综上所诉，只有当人口红利或者其他资源禀赋促进收入增长超过工资税收的部分，就业率才会持续的增加。

jackenjun 发表于 2012-3-15 08:59
so nice

thx a lot ......