26页 2007年1月铝行业月报
The LME aluminium price was very volatile in January, with a squeeze on
nearby dates pushing the market into backwardation and a strike in Guinea
leading to some disruption to bauxite and alumina shipments. The official
cash price traded in a wide range from $2681/t to $2952/t, with an
estimated monthly average of $2807/t. LME stocks also moved sharply,
with a 20kt rise in December followed by a 35kt increase in the month to
January 29th. This is a fairly normal development for this time of year and
given that some traders were delivering against short positions, no
particular conclusion can be drawn from this about the state of the
underlying physical market. However, prices have been higher than we
expected at the start of this year and our cash price forecast for 2007 now
stands at $2500/t, up from $2450/t month. (see pages 2-5)
• This volatility came against a backdrop of weak North American
consumption. Semis shipments fell sharply in December (with extrusions
down 16% and rolled products down 5%) and we have revised down our
forecast for this key region. Some Asian countries, such as Taiwan, are also
being hit by slower export sales to North America. More positive is the
continued strength of China, with semis shipments up 31% in December
and exports reaching another record high of 140kt. Europe is also still
growing well, despite the fiscal tightening measures that have been
introduced in Germany and Italy. (see pages 7-11)
• Another significant development was the recovery in spot alumina prices
from about $200/t fob Australia at the end of last month to around $300/t
now. Largely this ramp up seems to have been driven by rumours that
Chinese sellers were co-ordinating output cuts to tighten the market,
although we are sceptical about whether this will be effective, even if some
agreement is reached. There were also concerns about the strike in Guinea,
which encouraged some precautionary purchasing. (see pages 13-17)