发帖
雷达卡
Feeling peaky
感觉憔悴
The economic impact of high oil prices
高油价对经济的影响
AS THE developed-world economy tries to gain momentum, it faces a persistent headwind. The oil price remains stubbornly over $100 a barrel, acting like a tax on Western consumers. Some blame the high price on evil speculators—Barack Obama unveiled plans to increase penalties for market manipulation on April 17th. But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.
像对西方消费者征税一样长期超过100美元/桶的油价，成为发达国家高速发展道路上的一只拦路虎。一些人将其归咎于无良的投机商——4月17日巴拉克·奥巴马公布了一系列加大对市场操纵行为处罚力度的计划。再简单点儿解释就是：需求上涨，供应不足。
The concept of peak oil—the idea that global crude production may be at, or close to, its limit—is far from universally accepted. One leading asset manager talked recently of the world being “awash with energy” because of the exploitation of American shale gas. Nevertheless, oil is still the main fuel for cars and trucks. And crude output (as opposed to alternatives such as biofuels and liquids made from gas) has been flat since 2005.
石油峰值（peak oil）的概念（即全球原油生产已经达到或接近极限）还不能被普遍接受。一位首席资产经理人在最近的一次谈话中表示：由于美国的页岩气开采，这个世界现在“能源充足”。目前石油仍然是汽车和卡车的主要能源。但自2005年开始，原油产量（与生物燃料和液化气等可替代能源相反）出现持平。
A number of countries (including Britain, Egypt and Indonesia) have turned from net oil exporters into importers in recent years. And although rich countries have curbed their energy-guzzling a little, demand continues to surge in emerging markets.
最近几年，许多石油净输出国（包括英国、埃及和印度尼西亚）开始向石油进口国转型。虽然发达国家的能源消耗略微下降，但新兴行业的能源需求却持续飙升。
This has left the oil market very vulnerable to temporary supply disruptions, such as the war in Libya. Speaking at a conference in Dublin this week, organised by the Institute of International and European Affairs and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Chris Skrebowski, a consulting editor of Petroleum Review, argued that spare capacity in the oil market could be eroded by 2015.
这使得石油市场极易受到暂时性供应中断的损害，如利比亚战争。本周在都柏林，在由欧洲与国际事务研究所石油与天然气峰值研究协会组织的研讨会上，《石油评论》的顾问编辑克里斯·斯格里波斯基认为，到2015年，石油市场的备用产能将消耗殆尽。
The peak-oil concept was devised by the late M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted in 1956 that oil output in the lower 48 states of America would peak by around 1970. At the conference Michael Kumhof, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, presented the findings of a forthcoming working paper which showed that adding the idea of a “Hubbert peak” to energy production greatly improved the ability of a model to forecast oil prices. Based on an expected 0.9% annual increase in production over the next decade, the model predicts that real oil prices will nearly double over the same period.
石油峰值的概念由已故的M·金·哈伯特提出。1956年他曾准确预言了美国本土48州的石油产量将在1970年前后达到峰值。在这次会议上，国际货币基金组织经济学家迈克尔·库姆霍夫介绍了一项即将发表的工作报告研究成果，这项成果显示：将“哈伯特顶点”概念应用于能源产量上，可极大提升石油价格预测模型的预测能力。基于对未来十年原油产量以每年0.9%的速度增长的预期，该模型预测同一时期石油的实际价格将翻一番。
The economic damage caused by such a rise is predicted to be modest, perhaps 0.2% of global GDP a year. In the past changes in oil prices have had a limited long-term impact, since any losses to oil importers are matched by gains by oil exporters. To the extent that high oil prices played a role in the recessions of the early 1980s and 2008-09, the main reason is that oil-producing countries tend to have a lower marginal propensity to consume their income, denting global demand. Nevertheless, Mr Kumhof worries that if oil prices are high enough, the economic impact might increase substantially. On the most extreme assumptions, it could be 2% a year.
因油价上涨导致的经济损失不会很大，约占全球一年GDP的0.2%。过去，油价变化造成的长期影响有限，因为石油进口国的损失与出口国的收益相差无几。在某种程度上，石油价格在20世纪80年代早期和2008-2009年的经济衰退期发挥了一定的作用，主要原因在于，随着收入的增加，石油制造国试图降低边其边际消费倾向，进而导致全球能源需求减少。然而，库姆霍夫担心如果油价过高，经济影响会大幅增加。按照最极端的假设，经济将以每年2%的速度下滑。
Even if the world can find more oil—in the Arctic or tar sands, say—the longer-term question is whether the era of “cheap energy” is over and how the world can adjust if it is. Developed economies are built on easy access to cheap energy, importing goods that are transported from around the world, with consumers driving many miles to work in air-conditioned offices and then flying off to sunny climes for their annual holidays. Persistently high oil prices would clearly lead to substitution (electric cars, natural-gas-powered trucks) but the transition costs could be significant.
即使人们能从极地或是焦油砂中找到更多的石油，更长远的问题是：“廉价能源”的时代是否已经过去，如果这样的时代已经过去了整个世界又应作何调整？发达经济体依赖于极易获得的廉价能源：他们从世界各地进口货物，消费者驱车数英里前往有空调的办公室上班，然后飞去阳光充足的地方休年假。久高不下的石油价格明显会导致替代物的出现，如电车、天然气卡车等，但是完成这个转换所需不菲。
Furthermore some potential substitutes for, or new sources of, oil (such as biofuels and tar sands) are a lot less efficient, in the sense that they require significant amounts of energy simply to produce. To the extent that this equation (energy return on energy invested, or EROI) is deteriorating, that must surely have an effect on economic growth.
此外，一些潜在的石油替代品或是新的石油资源相比之下更为低效，因为仅仅生产它们就需要耗费大量的能源。某种程度上这个等式（能源投资收到的回报，即EROI）并不合理，它必然影响经济增长。
“What is the minimum EROI that a modern industrial society must have for its energy system for that society to survive?” ask Carey King and Charles Hall in a recent paper*. The academics’ answer: “Complex societies need a high EROI built on a large primary energy base.”
“用以维系社会运转的、一个现代化的工业社会的能源体系所必须拥有的最低回报收益率是多少？”凯瑞·金和查尔斯·豪尔在最近一篇文章中这样发问。专家的答案是：复杂的社会需要建立在大型一次能源基地的基础上的高投资回报率。
This issue is not much considered by mainstream economists, who are too busy focusing on monetary policy, the impact of fiscal austerity or the need for labour-market reforms. But just as the industrial revolution was built on coal, the post-second-world-war economy was built on cheap oil. There will surely be a significant impact if it has gone for good.
在此以前主流经济学家并没考虑过这个问题，它们忙于关注货币政策、财政紧缩的影响和劳工市场改革的需求等问题。但是正如工业革命建立在煤炭的基础上，二战后的经济是建立在廉价石油基础上的。石油枯竭必将产生重大影响。
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