20120425 Follow Me 349 Feeling peaky:The economic impact of high oil prices

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        “Feeling peaky:The economic impact of high oil prices” 是2012年4月21日发表在美国《经济学人》杂志上的一篇文章，全文如下：

Feeling peaky

The economic impact of high oil prices

Apr 21st 2012 | from the print edition

        AS THE developed-world economy tries to gain momentum, it faces a persistent headwind. The oil price remains stubbornly over $100 a barrel, acting like a tax on Western consumers. Some blame the high price on evil speculators—Barack Obama unveiled plans to increase penalties for market manipulation on April 17th. But there is a simpler explanation: that supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand.
        The concept of peak oil—the idea that global crude production may be at, or close to, its limit—is far from universally accepted. One leading asset manager talked recently of the world being “awash with energy” because of the exploitation of American shale gas. Nevertheless, oil is still the main fuel for cars and trucks. And crude output (as opposed to alternatives such as biofuels and liquids made from gas) has been flat since 2005.
        A number of countries (including Britain, Egypt and Indonesia) have turned from net oil exporters into importers in recent years. And although rich countries have curbed their energy-guzzling a little, demand continues to surge in emerging markets.
This has left the oil market very vulnerable to temporary supply disruptions, such as the war in Libya. Speaking at a conference in Dublin this week, organised by the Institute of International and European Affairs and the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Chris Skrebowski, a consulting editor of Petroleum Review, argued that spare capacity in the oil market could be eroded by 2015.
        The peak-oil concept was devised by the late M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted in 1956 that oil output in the lower 48 states of America would peak by around 1970. At the conference Michael Kumhof, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, presented the findings of a forthcoming working paper which showed that adding the idea of a “Hubbert peak” to energy production greatly improved the ability of a model to forecast oil prices. Based on an expected 0.9% annual increase in production over the next decade, the model predicts that real oil prices will nearly double over the same period.
        The economic damage caused by such a rise is predicted to be modest, perhaps 0.2% of global GDP a year. In the past changes in oil prices have had a limited long-term impact, since any losses to oil importers are matched by gains by oil exporters. To the extent that high oil prices played a role in the recessions of the early 1980s and 2008-09, the main reason is that oil-producing countries tend to have a lower marginal propensity to consume their income, denting global demand.
Nevertheless, Mr Kumhof worries that if oil prices are high enough, the economic impact might increase substantially. On the most extreme assumptions, it could be 2% a year.
        Even if the world can find more oil—in the Arctic or tar sands, say—the longer-term question is whether the era of “cheap energy” is over and how the world can adjust if it is. Developed economies are built on easy access to cheap energy, importing goods that are transported from around the world, with consumers driving many miles to work in air-conditioned offices and then flying off to sunny climes for their annual holidays. Persistently high oil prices would clearly lead to substitution (electric cars, natural-gas-powered trucks) but the transition costs could be significant.
        Furthermore some potential substitutes for, or new sources of, oil (such as biofuels and tar sands) are a lot less efficient, in the sense that they require significant amounts of energy simply to produce. To the extent that this equation (energy return on energy invested, or EROI) is deteriorating, that must surely have an effect on economic growth.

        “What is the minimum EROI that a modern industrial society must have for its energy system for that society to survive?” ask Carey King and Charles Hall in a recent paper*. The academics’ answer: “Complex societies need a high EROI built on a large primary energy base.”

        This issue is not much considered by mainstream economists, who are too busy focusing on monetary policy, the impact of fiscal austerity or the need for labour-market reforms. But just as the industrial revolution was built on coal, the post-second-world-war economy was built on cheap oil. There will surely be a significant impact if it has gone for good.

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关键词：Economic feeling econom follow Prices 349 economic impact

as the publisher of this information, i'd like to share my opinion about this article with all the persons. first, this paper provides us a new factor, which is peak oil, to analyzing the oil price.
        peak oil means that the production of global oil will increase firstly and reach to a peak point or a peak plateau due to the non-renewable and limited resources, and then the production will decline. the reason is why peak oil is improtant is that growth of world economy and improving of standard of people's living are addicted to oil, although many countries are seeking some alternative resources.  however, it will surely need a very long time for the world find a good energy resource to replace oil.
       Therefore, oil is still very important in the foreseeable future, which means that the increasing of oil price due to peak oil will surely have a serious impact on world economy. and now, this impact is beginning to emerge. that's the point which the author want to tell us.
        

Although the oil price can impact  the economic development,  the mainstream economists are  interesting in macro-economy.

Obama said there would be a penalty on manipulating the market, but how about those wars aiming oil. Almost the whole global oil market is controlled by States, who is backed by several big banks. If US citizens want the oil price to reduce, they wait until the banks gain enough. If they keep complaining, just come to China. Our freakingly high oil price with freakingly low quality welcomes you~

Alternative resource is not that easy to be found. The countries which economy is based on the industries need to concern more about the next step. Maybe the cost of oil will also give us a significant symbol that it is time to learn to retrench.  

Oil kidnaps economy.

Oil crisis is coming! New clean energy is very needed, but it's much easy to say than to find new energy!
Hope one day the water or salt water in the sea would be the main engery source!

I think this article mainly talks about the following two issues:

I .  The reason of the peak oil :

A.  Several countries which was able to produce enough oil in the past have begun to import oil from other countries.

B.  The amount of oil decreased by some developed countries' energy consuming reducing can't make up with the amount of what the growing markets need.

II .  The impacts of the peak oil:

A.  It made the market vulnerable to temporary supply disruptions.

B.  It caused a decrease in GDP.

The author wants to sound the warning to the world: It's time to pay more attention to the peak oil problem, or it will have a bigger and bigger impact on economic growth.   

China, the fifth biggest oil producer in the world, just couldn't meet its demand. For China, the biggest problem it has been facing is the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle-Eastern emergency events. If we don't want to be influenced much by other countries, the only way, I guess, is to encourage investment in tapping new energy sources.  

In the economic globalization, the topic of oil price or the energy is an eternal and meaningful. Across the country, using new technology and purred by rising oil prices since the mid-2000s, it is a story of the complex economics of energy, which sometimes seems to operate by its own rules of supply and demand.

But the domestic trends are unmistakable, not only has the USA reduced oil imports from members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries by more than 20 percent in the last three years, it has become a net exporter of refined petroleum products.

The oil price is also the basic sensitive information to the  financial market which the relationship is really complicate. someone interests can download the following articles ~

zhdefei 发表于 2012-4-25 08:37
Although the oil price can impact  the economic development,  the mainstream economists are  interes ...

the impact of high oil price can be seen from every aspects of our economy, one of them is the decline of economic growth rate, for example, GDP. that's the macro-economy. therefore, oil price will surely have some effect on macro-economy, the economists should note that oil is non-renewable resources, which means it is different with other commodities.