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雷曼兄弟－2007年亚洲油轮运输股展望
Transportation－Facing stiff headwinds
17页 英文 February 06, 2007
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Summary
Supply ramp-up: A re-acceleration in tanker fleet growth from 5.1% in 2006 to 5.8% is likely to put further downward pressure on
freight rates in 2007. If the industry does not scrap any vessels this year, supply could grow as much as 7.2%.
Demand growth deceleration: Ton-mile tanker demand growth is set to slow from 4.1% in 2006E to 3.4% in 2007E, despite
average voyages lengthening. Our cautious view on demand is driven by low export volume growth expectations, underpinned by our
oil team’s conservative production growth estimate of 0.5% yoy.
Rates to decline: We expect tanker rates to decline by 20% on average yoy in 2007E, following last year’s 8% decline. The worsethan-
expected rate deterioration is likely to lead to earnings disappointment and share price weakness, in our view.
Top pick: We believe that MISC shares (1-Overweight) look oversold. Our analysis suggests that the market is ascribing no value for
the tanker business, which looks too pessimistic, even for those of us that are cautious on tankers.
Avoid: In our view, China Merchants Energy Shipping stock (3-Underweight) stock is an interesting way to gain exposure to China’s
burgeoning LNG shipping industry. However, valuations appear to be very demanding on a 12-month view. Separately, we believe
that China Shipping Development shares (3-Underweight) look overvalued.
Risks: Our cautious view could be derailed by any number of factors, including, but not limited to, stronger-than-expected
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