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[size=1.3em]TRADE is not the only measure of China’s economic influence: many foreign companies have set up shop inside the country, profiting from its market without having to export to it. To obtain a measure of multinational exposure to the Middle Kingdom, The Economist has prepared a stockmarket index made up of 135 companies in America's S&P 500, weighted by China’s reported share of their revenues. (For companies that report revenues only for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, we have assumed China’s share of regional revenues reflects its share of the region’s GDP.) This “Sinodependency” index has outperformed the S&P 500 in recent years, climbing by almost 129% since the beginning of 2009, compared with the S&P 500’s gain of 57% (see left-hand chart). It has also performed far better than China’s own stockmarkets.
[size=1.3em]In the right-hand chart, we have calcaulted the effect of reduction in Chinese capital formation in the event of a soft landing; which we define as a two-percentage-point slowdown in China’s investment growth, and a harder landing; which we define as a 3.9-point slowdown—the same as it endured in 2008. A hard landing would hobble South Korea and bring Taiwan’s growth to a shuddering halt, but growth in Brazil and Australia would hold up surprisingly well. However, these estimates capture only the direct impact of a Chinese slowdown, as transmitted through its trade links. But stockmarkets around the world would also swoon and some countries would be hit by indirect effects: Germany, for example, would suffer both a loss of exports to China and to countries like America that sell a lot to China.
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