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Valuation and Financial Forecasting A Handbook for Academics and Practitioners .pdf
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Welcome to Valuation and Financial Forecasting: A Handresource for Academics and Practitioners. This resource is intended for a very wide audience, ranging from novices to seasoned professional valuation experts.
Don’t worry if you don’t have a strong accounting or finance background.
We will build a strong foundation for you before diving into the more
advanced concepts.
The goal of financial forecasting and business valuation is to determine forecasted future cash flows that are accurate, fair, and defensible:
forecasts upon which we will rely to determine a valuation that is reasonable and that will be accepted by our counterparty. So, what actually is
value? That is, what is something really worth? Some people say that
things are worth what the highest bidder is willing to pay for them. As
long as there is someone willing to pay a given price for an asset — even
if that price seems extremely high to most people — then that must be
what the asset is worth, right? Well, not really! What if that individual
that paid the high price for the asset got tired of owning the asset and
wanted to turn around and sell it? Could the seller be sure that the asset
would be worth the same high amount to someone else? For example, my
father’s wedding ring is worth a lot more to me than it is to anyone else.
So, does it make sense to say that the inflated price that I would be willing
to pay for my dad’s wedding ring — because of my emotional attachment
to it — should be considered the fair market price for the ring when there
is no one else in the world that would ever be willing to buy it for that
price? That sounds kind of silly, doesn’t it?$100k in 5 years and we require a 10% return on our investments, then
what would that $100k be worth today? Or, if I were to invest $100k
today for 5 years at a rate of 10%, what would it be worth at the end of
the 5 years?
Once we have command of the basics of the time value of money,
then we will explore some important tools for financial decision-making,
namely Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Payback Period.
To this end, we will also learn about the cost for bearing risk; specifically,
the Weighted Average Cost of Capital. These tools are used ubiquitously
in the business world to evaluate investments, so it is important that we
have a solid understanding of them.
The next part of the resource is focused on the three principal valuation
methodologies that we are likely to encounter when doing a business valuation: The Income Approach, The Market Approach, and The Asset
Approach (both Adjusted Net Asset Value and the Cumulative Excess
Earnings methods). Each of these important valuation methodologies
takes a somewhat different approach to estimating the value of a business
enterprise. They each have their own pros and cons and are more appropriate for use in some cases than in others, but they are all encountered
fairly often (albeit, some more than others), so we will explore all three in
significant detail.
Next, we will explore financial forecasting; in particular, how to forecast Unlevered Free Cash Flows. Don’t worry if you don’t know what
this means right now; we will explain what Unlevered Free Cash Flows
are in detail later in the resource. We will also examine some special cases
in valuation, such as cyclical firms and firms that are in financial distress.
Once we know the different valuation methodologies and how to forecast
the cash flows used in those methodologies, we will discuss how to arrive
at a consensus price estimate, and how to stress test that estimate by conducting a sensitivity analysis to ensure its robustness to reasonable
changes in our assumptions.
This is the resource that we both wish we had access to when we were
students first learning the ropes and then again as professionals when we
started to get contracted to do more complicated valuations. We sincerely
hope that you enjoy our handresource and find it to be a helpful reference tool
for financial forecasting and valuation, irrespective of your current level
of expertise.
b4859 Valuation and Financial Forecasting 6"×9" 4 Valuation and Financial Forecasting: A Handresource for Academics and Practitioners
Key Takeaways
· The goal of valuation is to arrive at a value that is fair and defensible:
an estimate around which you can develop agreement and consensus.
· We will be working with three principal financial statements —
Balance Sheet, Income Statement, and Cash Flow Statement.
· The three principal valuation methodologies for doing a business valuation are: The Income Approach, The Market Approach, and The Asset
Approach.
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 The Balance Sheet 5
Chapter 3 The Income Statement 39
Chapter 4 The Statement of Cash Flows/The Statement of
Sources and Uses 59
Chapter 5 Financial Statement Analysis 67
Chapter 6 The Time Value of Money 89
Chapter 7 Valuation Tools for Financial Decision Making 99
Chapter 8 Risk and Return 113
Chapter 9 The Income Approach to Valuing a Firm 137
Chapter 10 The Market Approach/Trading and Precedent
Transaction Comparables 163
Chapter 11 The Asset Valuation Approach 191
Chapter 12 Forecasting EBITDA and Unlevered
Free Cash Flow 209
Chapter 13 Special Cases in Valuation 225
Chapter 14 Arriving at a Final Price Estimate — The Football
Field and Sensitivity Analysis 247
Chapter 15 Appendix: Alpha Brewing Company Financials 269
Index 275
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