Model-Free and Model-Based Policy Evaluation
when Causality is Uncertain
David Bruns-Smith 1
Abstract unobserved shocks are often assumed to be drawn iid ev-
When decision-makers can directly intervene, pol- ery period. Consider the Federal Reserve Board adjusting
icy evaluation algorithms give valid causal esti- monetary policy in response to oil price shocks. Events like
mates. In off-policy evaluatio ...


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