楼主: yiershijie
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[宏观经济学政策] 中央连续采取货币政策将对中国经济产生怎样的影响? [推广有奖]

21
liulijinjin 发表于 2007-5-10 22:29:00

加油吧,看好你呦

22
sungmoo 发表于 2007-5-10 23:58:00
以下是引用amwwyof在2007-5-9 11:00:00的发言:…结果中国的经济将处于这样一个两难境地:经济继续紧缩,需求继续疲惫

“经济紧缩”与“紧缩政策”是两回事。

需求也是分多层次、多内容的。

现在一直在说“投资过热”,“需求疲惫”是何意义呢?

23
sungmoo 发表于 2007-5-11 00:02:00
以下是引用amwwyof在2007-5-9 11:00:00的发言:…正常的商业运作被紧缩性的货币政策限制,抛出的人民币却大量的游移于市场之外…

这句话也不甚理解。

“市场”是什么市场?

虽然改变了货币乘数,但基础货币量也改变了,“货币供给余额”如何变化呢?

24
sungmoo 发表于 2007-5-11 00:04:00
以下是引用amwwyof在2007-5-9 11:00:00的发言:…正常经济一旦稍有起色,央行就不得不担惊受怕,怕这悬河垮了,造成通货膨胀,所以收紧钱口袋。而收紧钱口袋,经济便没有起色…

这句话逻辑应再加细一些。

“正常经济起色”与“通货膨胀”的关系应说得再清楚一些更好。

25
sungmoo 发表于 2007-5-11 00:07:00
以下是引用amwwyof在2007-5-9 11:00:00的发言:…而这些货币却只能游离于市场之外,据估计,很大一部分是流入股市、基金等地方。(从而造成目前股市等过热现象)

“市场”是什么市场?股市算不算“市场”?

26
bingyue111 发表于 2007-5-11 03:19:00

Increase the reserve ratio will definitely increase the money that the bank is going to hold and thus it will not invest in elsewhere. By doing this, it will reduce the money supply put into the market and therefore cut the money mobility. By increase the interest rate, it will attract people to save more and spend less. Because interest rate is the opportunity cost to hold money. So if raise interest rate, the cost of holding money will be high and people might want to put money in the bank and thus reduce the pressure on the stock market. However, because people at the moment feel really confident about the stock market and the return for the stock market is really big compared to the interest rate so increasing the interest rate moderately will not have too much effect on the stock market. If the government could double the interest rate, then some people might want to quit from the high risk stock market and put money in the bank.

The effect of raising interest rate on the house market will be as follows: increasing the interest rate will increase the mortgage payment rate and therefore people have to repay at a higher rate if they choose to use a mortgage. This rise in the mortgage rate will put off some people and the demand for the house market may subside. However, there are people speculating in the housing market and the rise of the mortgage rate will not have too much effect on time because they can earn more buy buying a house and sell it 1-2 months later.

Therefore, according to the latest Financial Times article, some economist insist that China should raise its interet rate by a bigger proportion.

27
bingyue111 发表于 2007-5-11 03:21:00

As to the effect of raising the exchange rate, that will reduce the balance of payment surplus and thus reduce the pressure on price rise.

28
zyf45609365 发表于 2007-5-11 16:27:00

没有用,体制僵化,受影响的只是小老百姓。

大贪官,大奸商不差那点利息,该受贿的受贿,该行贿的行贿,该铺张浪费的铺张浪费。

正义,有多少邪恶假你的名义而行!!!

29
yiershijie 发表于 2007-5-11 22:43:00

谢谢大家对帖子的支持.

相信自己,不要继续玩下去!

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