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DBResearch OilGasFor Beginners 2010 (2).pdf
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对国际原油和油品市场的全面分析，适合初学者了解产业链，初级行业研究员也可以作为参考。
对国际原油和油品市场的全面分析，适合初学者了解产业链，初级行业研究员也可以作为参考。Table of Contents Section I: The Oil & Gas Industry …………........ 7 A Brief History of Oil …………....... 8 From biblic al times… ……... ..... 8 Setting the scene ………….…… 9 IOCs and NOCs………………... 13 The IOC Sisters – 100 years in the making…………......... 14 The International Oil Companies ……..... 15 The IOCs Compared …………....... 18 The major NOCs …….... 21 OPEC …………...... 24 A brief history…….. 24 How does OPEC work ? ……………….... 25 Why is OPEC able to influence prices?…………....... 26 What price does OPEC want?........ 27 The OPEC basket …………........ 28 What is the western IOCs exposure to OPEC?………….....28 In the beginni ng ….. …….. 29 ……Migration………… 39 Reservoir quality ………………..... 40 The trap and seal…… 42 Reservoir volumetrics ……. ... 43 Getting it out………………........ 45 The Life Cycle of a Basin……...... 45 Field Operations……………… 50 Land Seismic…………........ 50 Offshore seismic……........ 52 Assessing risk and reward …….. 54 Benchmarking exploration success rates……........ 55 Field Operation s - Drilling………………... 58 Directional wells…………..…… 62 Land and offshore rigs ……………….... ... 62 Drilling day rates ………….………….... 66 Field Operations - Development ……......... 70 Onshore – oil is usually straight-fo rward… ………….........70 Offshore – as usual, deeper is t ougher ………………....... 71 Extending the field life ……...... ..... 73 Recovery factors …… ...... 74 Primary recovery ……....... ...... 74 Depositional controls on recovery factor ……………….... 75 Secondary recovery … waterflood………… 76 Tertiary recover y techniques…….. 76 Oil Field Service Companie s – where do th ey fi t?………….77 A word on costs………… ...... 83 Oil & Gas reserves …………......... 88 …… Tax & Royalty Co ncessions…………........ 109 Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) ………………........110 Working through an IRR based PSC ……………….........116 Buy Backs …………...... ....... 119 Oil & Gas Taxation – Some Key Terms………………......121 World Oil Markets …………....... 122 Fundamentals, physic al and financial ………………........ 122 Key exchanges and benchmarks………… 122 The oil price………………. 123 Oil Demand ……………… 124 Oil Supply……. 127 Inventories ………….…… 129 Physical vs. Financial……....... .... 129 World Gas Markets……………….. 133 The clean fuel of choice ……. . 133 Gas demand…………......... 133 Gas Supply ………………. 135 Gas Pricing …………...... 139 Oil & Gas Pr oducts …………...... 145 What is crude oil? ……........ 145 Definitions…………....... 145 Trends in crude oil……..... 147 Key Global Blends ……... ... 148 Refining Overview …………....... 149 The Black Sheep of the family………….... 149 The curse of the investment cycle …………………….. 152 What is Refining?…………......... 153 What do refineries make ? ……………… 153 The stream of oil products …………......... 1 54 How does a refinery wo rk? …………........ 155 ……Refining Industry Structure …………........ 172 Petroleum Administration for Defence Districts (PADDS) ………….......172 Marketing ……………………. 174 Stability in a cy clical world …………....... .. 174 The wholesale/ retail chain………………176 Removing capital, containing costs……………………. 177 What’s in a litre of fuel? European Ret ail Data…………....178 What’s in a litre of fuel? US Ret ail Data ……………….... 178 Biofuels………… 179 What are biofuels? ………………........ ... 179 …… Petrochemic als ……………….. 189 Part of the integrated chain…………........ 189 The olefin plant (cracker) ……………… .. 190 Petrochemical Industry profita bility……………………. 192 Olefin and Aromatic Building Blocks and their Chains ……..193 Ethylene – C2 Olefin………………...... ... 193 Propylene – C3 Olefin ………………..... . 194 Butadiene – C4 Olefin ………………...... 195 Benzene – C6 Aromatic……………….... 195 Paraxylene – C8 Aromat ic ……………… 19 6 The Major Plastics or Po lymers …………. 197 Polyethylene (PE) ………….. 199 Polyprop ylene …………....... 199 Purified Terephthalic Acid (P TA)…………. 199 Conventionals & Unconventio nals………….. 201 Conventionals …………....... 201 Unconventionals …………... 201 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) …… 202 …… Canada’s Oil Sands…………...... 226 A huge unconventional resource………… 226 Methods of Extraction – Mining…………. 228 Methods of Extraction – In-situ ………….. 228 Upgrading …………...... ....... 230 Costs – The highest marginal cost barrel on the glob e …….231 Gas to Liquids (GTL)………….... 233 An expensive altern ative to LNG………… 233 Background ………………. 233 Commercial GTL plants are limi ted ……………………. 234 There are positives………………....... .... 236 An uncertain future at this time………….. 236 Coal Bed Methane …………....... 237 Exactly what it says on the label ………… 237 Tight & Shal e Gas…………........ 239 Huge potential resource………………... 239 Economic at curren t gas pri ces?………… 241 Section II: The Countries……....... 243 Major non-OPEC producers …….. 244 Norway ………… 245 United Kingdom………………. 251 US Deepwater Gulf of Mexi co…………......... 257 US Alaska ……………………. 263 Canada – Oil Sands…………...... 269 …… Major OPEC Producers………… 319 Angola………….. 321 Iran …………....... 327 Iraq …………....... 335 Kuwait …………. 343 Libya ………….... 351 Nigeria …………. 359 Qatar ………….... 367 Saudi Arabia………………....... 373 United Arab Emirates ………….. 381Venezuela ……………………. 387 Section III: the Compani es…….... 394 BP ……………………..... 395 Royal Dutch Shell plc ………………....... 399 Total SA…………....... …… 403 ENI …………………….... 407 …… ExxonMobil ………………. 431 Chevron………………....... 435 ConocoPhi llips …………. ..... 439 Glossary…………………….... 443 Industry Investment thesis ……... 453
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