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英文文献：Working Paper 98 - Africa and the Global Economic Crisis: Strategies for Preserving the Foundations of Long-Term Growth-工作文件98 -非洲和全球经济危机:维护长期增长基础的战略
英文文献作者：Vincent Castel,Taoufik Rajhi,Desire Désiré Vencatachellum,Nooman Rebei,Abdul Kamara,Nirina Letsara
英文文献摘要：
The global economic crisis has definitelycaused a growth crisis in African economies.Growth rates have plummeted, withsome countries even experiencingcontraction. The crisis is hitting the keydrivers of growth, especially trade flows,capital inflows, natural resource sectors(oil and minerals) and agricultural exports.And the worst may be yet to come. Eventhe growth rate of 2.8 percent projectedfor 2009 in February appears to havebeen optimistic. The revised forecasts putAfrica’s growth at 2.3 percent for 2009(Table1). This implies that for the firsttime since 1994, per capita income willcontract in 2009 in several countries andfor the continent as a whole. Indeed agrowth crisis has set in.The biggest concern is that the growth crisismay degenerate into a developmentcrisis as the recession deepens. The crisisconstitutes a major threat to the continent’spoverty reduction agenda. Formany African countries, especially thosethat started with weak macroeconomicand structural conditions, the recoverymay be painful and prolonged. The globalattention to the crisis thus far has focusedon minimizing its impact. For Africancountries to avoid a protracted recessionand a long and painful recovery, it isimperative now to strike a balance betweenshort-tem crisis response strategiesand measures to address structuralconstraints to long-term growth. There isa risk that resources may be shiftedtowards crisis response to the detrimentof long-term development programs.Effective crisis response requires a scalingup of resources in addition to deliveryof planned development aid.This paper reviews the evidence on theimpact of the crisis on the continent, withemphasis on the differential effects acrosssectors and countries. It especially highlightsthe plight of the poor and the setback on the progress towards the MDGs.It examines strategies for positioning thecontinent favorably to take advantage of aglobal economic recovery in the mediumterm. It closes with a discussion of theimplied role of the Bank and other developmentpartners.
全球经济危机无疑造成了非洲经济的增长危机。经济增长率直线下降，一些国家甚至出现了经济收缩。危机正在打击经济增长的关键驱动因素，特别是贸易流动、资本流入、自然资源部门(石油和矿产)和农业出口。而最糟糕的情况可能还没有到来。就连2月份预计的2.8%的2009年增长率似乎也有些乐观。修正后的预测显示，2009年非洲经济增长率为2.3%(表1)。这意味着，2009年，多个国家和整个非洲大陆的人均收入将出现自1994年以来的首次下降。事实上，更严重的危机已经开始。最令人担忧的是，随着衰退加深，增长危机可能会恶化为发展危机。这场危机对非洲大陆的过度减排议程构成了重大威胁。对许多非洲国家来说，特别是那些宏观经济和结构性条件薄弱的国家，复苏可能是痛苦而漫长的。迄今为止，全球对这场危机的关注都集中在尽量减少其影响上。对于非洲国家来说，要避免旷日持久的衰退和漫长而痛苦的复苏，当务之急是在短期危机应对策略和解决结构制约长期增长的措施之间取得平衡。资源有可能被用于应对危机，从而损害长期发展计划。有效应对危机，除了提供计划中的发展援助外，还需要扩大资源。本文回顾了危机对非洲大陆影响的证据，重点强调了不同部门和国家的不同影响。它特别突出了穷人的困境和在实现千年发展目标方面所遭遇的挫折。它审查了战略定位，有利于利用全球经济复苏的中期。报告最后讨论了世界银行和其他发展伙伴的潜在作用。
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