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Understanding Uncertainty
By Dennis V. Lindley
Publisher: Wiley-Interscience
Number Of Pages: 272
Publication Date: 2006-09-11
Sales Rank: 351212
ISBN / ASIN: 0470043830
EAN: 9780470043837
Binding: Hardcover
Manufacturer: Wiley-Interscience
Studio: Wiley-Interscience
Average Rating: 5
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective
From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill."
Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules—craftily laid out in the book—that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science.
With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and:
Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods
Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty
Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty
Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century
Shows readers how to discern if another person—whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist—is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers
Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
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