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英文文献：The Determinants of Trade Balance and Adjustment to the Crisis in Indonesia-印尼贸易平衡的决定因素和危机的调整
英文文献作者：Iman Sugema
英文文献摘要：
This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rate depreciation and supply side shocks on exports and imports. Indonesia provides an interesting case study of the subject because this country experienced a large depreciation, banking sector collapse, and socio-political turbulence during the Asian crisis episode. The results suggest that trade balance will improve following devaluation through an increase in exports and a collapse in imports. Because the elasticity of imports with respect to the real exchange rate is greater than that of exports, improvement in trade balance would be mainly come from import compression. It is also found that export performance could have been far better if Indonesia did not suffer from banking problems and socio-political turbulence.
本文研究了实际汇率贬值和供给侧冲击对进出口的影响。印尼在这个问题上提供了一个有趣的案例研究，因为这个国家在亚洲金融危机期间经历了大幅贬值、银行业崩溃和社会政治动荡。研究结果表明，货币贬值后，通过出口增加和进口减少，贸易平衡将得到改善。由于进口相对于实际汇率的弹性大于出口，贸易平衡的改善将主要来自进口的压缩。报告还发现，如果印尼没有遭受银行业问题和社会政治动荡，出口业绩本可以好得多。
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